Prologue

Lisa and I flew from San Francisco to Miami, then to St. Lucia for a sailing trip in the Carribean islands. We originally had wanted to run a trip in the British Virgin Islands like we did several years ago, but could not drum up enough interest to run a catamaran there. When I read the New York Times article about the SV Illusion, I did a quick computation and realized that the cost of the trip was lower than if I were to charter a boat myself and sail it myself. So on the spur of the moment, I signed Lisa and I up with the Illusion from December 15th to January 2nd.

The flights were uneventful, and we were met at the St. Lucia airport by Peter, a taxi driver sent by the Illusion to pick us up from the airport and deliver us to Rodney Bay where the Illusion was anchored. The weather was a balmy 80 degrees and sunny, but despite the small size of St. Lucia, it took an incredibly long time to drive from the airport to Rodney Bay. Peter was quite garrulous, happy to explain the country and our ship-mates to be, Sarang, who had apparently already made a name for himself.

From St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Upon arrival at Rodney Bay, our driver called Norman and Allison, and we were asked to wait at the H20 bar. There, we ran into Sarang and Zach, who were already on the crew. Zach was near the end of his stay, but Sarang had a few more days with us yet. A little later, Norman and Allison showed up and took us out to a local bar for a drink. Then there was a debate as to whether we would eat on the boat or eat out. Since the crew wanted to eat out, we obliged, but first made a detour to the Illusion to drop off our lugguage.

From St. Vincent and the Grenadines

Stepping onto the Illusion for the first time, I could see that this was truly a working boat: the deck looked well worn, despite being made out of metal, and the interior cabins were tiny, even smaller than the Rya Jen, which I had sailed two years ago. As a treasure hunting boat, the Illusion had hot-bunked a crew of 20, which included divers to dig up treasure from the Atocha off the coast of Florida.

We got ourselves squared away, and headed out to dinner, docking the skiff at the Happy Day bar. Dinner was at a local grill, which served reasonably good food, but did not have prices that kept Norman happy—he had shown up a year ago during their opening sale, and apparently prices were much better. At dinner, Sarang demonstrated himself to be a hard drinking, chain smoking, kleptomaniac professor, by not only ordering drinks and smoking, but also trying to talk us into bringing some extra silverware back to the boat. After dinner, Lisa and I were so tired that we went to the lounge and dozed off, and were awakened to return to the boat after everyone else was done with a round of drinks.

On the way back to the Illusion, however, the skiff ran over some fishing line left by some fisherman, and the propellor ground to a halt. Norman, while trying to unwrap the line, fell into the water, and had to climb back up to the skiff before finally un-fouling the propeller. Fortunately the water was warm and the moon was bright. I had caught a bit of a bug on the plane flights, and upon reaching the Illusion, fell asleep quickly.

2009 Books of the Year

I'm 2 days away from going on vacation, and don't expect to get much reading done, if only because the PS3 is turning out to be quite addictive. So I'm going to take the time now to call out what I consider to be the books of the year.

As usual, even though I read far less non-fiction than fiction, the leading titles I can think of this year fall into the Non-fiction category. Two obvious leaders spring to mind: FDR and Connected. Of the two, I think FDR has to get the nod. That's because while most intelligent, connected people use social networks of one sort of another, very few otherwise intelligent people I know have actually gone back and studied the history of how today's American society was built, and how one man almost single-handedly built up many of today's institutions (Social Security, the Securities Exchange Commission, etc) that Republicans are still trying to tear down (and have no real success dismantling). I think it behooves us to understand history, not just because it has a tendency to repeat itself (or rhyme, as others say), but to realize how different the world would have been if FDR had not existed. If you consider yourself a serious thinker (or are even vaguely interested in how institutions such as Social Security get built), I think you owe it to yourself to read this book. Even worse, some even believe the right-wing propaganda about how FDR caused the great depression, or how he knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor and kept quiet about it. Honorable mentions go to: The Promise of Sleep, Your Money & Your Brain, and the previously mentioned Connected.

Update: I recently read Hyman P. Minsky's Stabilizing an Unstable Economy, and now I consider it the book of the year for 2009, no question. Very much worth reading!

On the fiction side, this has certainly been the year of Alastair Reynolds for me, just as last year was the year of Richard K. Morgan. Of the lot, House of Suns really stands out, but the Revelation Space series is also definitely worth reading. Honorable mention goes to Stross' Wireless, where the novella Palimpsest by itself is worth the price of the entire book.

I didn't read many comics this year, but once again, I want to point everyone to Bill Willingham's Fables. It's still the best running comic book series that exists, has no men (or women) in tights, and as far as I can tell, Willingham has never run out of good ideas.

Unlike last year's mammoth 95 book record, this year, I only read 57 books. Of course, the year's not over yet, and maybe I'll stumble onto something so amazing that it'll kick one of the above books out of ranking by the end of the year, but I don't think anyone will come away from reading any of the above books feeling disappointed.

Review: Better

Better had a promising start: it starts of by discussing the causes of infection in hospitals, and the history of attempts to control it. All the industrial engineering in the world, for instance, didn't seem to solve the problem, but it turned out that if you got everyone in the hospital involved, and they felt like they were being heard, you could actually improve the situation dramatically.

3 chapters later, in the middle of a section on doctors in the prison system, I realized that this book did not have a coherent theme: it was basically a collection of essays by the author previously published in The New Yorker or elsewhere, which explained the lack of coherence. While it's all very exciting to hear about such disparate places in the world where medicine in practice, there's no central idea tying it together. The result: by the time I finished the book, I felt as though I had tried to eat dinner by ordering 12 appetizers. Each one tasted fine, but the whole experience left me feeling vaguely unsatisfied.

Check it out from your library instead of buying it, even at Kindle price.

Review: Connected

When Google rolled out the Orkut social network, a bunch of us scratched our heads and wondered what the heck we would ever use it for. Now in 2009, social networks from Facebook to Twitter have become big news, even if nobody knows how profitable they are, and it's become far more important to understand the way social networks operate than ever.

Connected is a book about human networks. Ruchira Datta first pointed me at it through the New York Times article about how friends can cause each other to gain (or lose) weight, even across a thousand miles. If you think about it, this is a very surprising result, because it's not like you're going to see your friends that far away frequently enough to copy their weight gain or loss.

Each chapter of this book presents at least one such interesting revelation. The one that really surprised me was the well-known fact that married men live about 5 years longer than single men, but married women live only about 2 years longer. The book answers how the mechanism works, and why it is that women seem to benefit less than men from marriage. The answer turns out to be very surprising and relevant to traditional views about marriage. Then there's a romp through human organizations, Dunbar's number, and a presentation of the "3 levels of indirection" influence rule.

The subsequent chapters concern themselves with epidemics, politics, wealth, and the internet, and the future of our connected lives. Of all the topics, the ones on wealth and epidemics are the most enlightening, and the one on politics least surprising, while the chapter on the internet space the weakest, since this space is still very much in its infancy, though the value provided there is immense.

The writing is clear, the topics selected fascinating, and I found the entire book really enjoyable. Highly recommended, at the $9.99 Kindle price, or even at the full hardback price. Yes it is that good. I won't be surprised if I ended up nominating this book for the book of the year.

Review: PlayStation 3 + Accessories

So I succumbed to Amazon's Black Friday sale and bought a Sony Playstation 3 with 2 games for $290. The way things work out, this meant upgrading the TV as well, and my mom's company was blowing out LG's 42LH300C for $575, so I opted for one. This in turned drove the purchase of a HDMI cable and a Wii Component cable as well. This kind of spending cascades is why BestBuy and Amazon have such high revenues.

It took a bit of wiring to set up. The nice thing is that my system is now actually simpler, since the TV comes with its own digital tuner, so the old Tivax and CRT TV got sold. Unfortunately, the Wii component cable did not come in splittable form, so I had to plug the Wii into the TV and then route audio from the TV back into the receiver, resulting in my audio latency being much worse than my visual latency (35ms versus 22ms). Unfortunately, despite the component cables, the Wii doesn't look all that great!

The Playstation 3, however, is a different story. Watching Veronica Mars on DVD looked great, since the PS3 upscales the visual. Plugging the PS3 into my receiver was a cinch as well, and to my relief, I could use both analog audio out and digital TV out (through HDMI), which enabled the sound to go directly into my amp. It sounds as good as you might expect. Stick in a Blu-Ray disc, and the picture quality is nothing short of amazing. It's not quite 70mm quality, but seriously, when was the last time you saw 70mm film projected in a movie theater?

But that's only the tip of the ice-berg. You can rent HD videos for $4.99 on the PS3 (it's hooked up to the internet, either through a wired connection or over Wi-Fi), and even better, I had a PlayOn license for $10 from a Halloween special that enabled me to stream YouTube, Hulu, and any other media sitting on my PC's hard drive to the TV. I guess I will never have to pay for cable TV again. Apparently, you can stream Netflix movies to the PS3 as well, but I'm too cheap to pay for Netflix too, so I'll probably wait until I get a free trial to play with it.

And then there's games. The Black Friday special included inFamous, which is so far quite interesting. I have to set it to easy so I can actually play it --- yes, I'm a lame gamer --- but I've known that ever since John Carmack gave me every weapon in Quake and came after me with an axe and axe-murdered me. When my Dad first heard my system through the PS3 he thought the simulated earthquake on the PS3 was real! The bundle also included Killzone 2, which seems like a game too hard for an oldster like me. Valkryia Chronicles is more my speed. Roberto loaned me a few games (and blu-ray movies) and I'll check them out as well.

The PS3 even supports my bluetooth headset, though I haven't had the occasion to try it out yet in a group game. The one complaint I have is that both the Wii and the PS3 are blue-tooth devices, while the TV, receiver, and soundbridge are infra-red controlled devices. So now my universal remote isn't universal any more (now the PS3 controller has to sit next to it). This is hardly a deal killer, and there are solutions, but I'm done spending money for now.

Which makes me wonder: who the heck is buying the Apple TV? For $70 more, you get a fantastic game machine, a blu-ray player, an upscaling DVD player, and access to pretty much the same movies, plus Hulu and YouTube (for a $30 PlayOn license if you didn't get the $10 license that everyone else gets), and whatever other media you can download to your PC's hard drive. I guess Mac owners can't run PlayOn (though it does run on VMWare) and are made of money anyway.

Review: How The Mighty Fall

Recently, someone asked the question of a general mailing list, "How do you know when a company is failing, or on the verge of failing?" At that time, there were several interesting answers, but none of them really satisfying, since no one really had any data to back it up. How the Mighty Fall, written by Jim Collins of Built to Last fame, takes on that question, and to a certain degree of success.

The thesis of the book is that explanations such as "failure to innovate" are rarely the case. In fact, on the contrary, most of the companies who failed innovated at a rapid and ferocious pace. They brought in change leaders from the outside, a frenetically introduced new products, new innovations, and reorganized themselves at a ferocious pace. What that served to do instead of rescuing them from failure was to plunge them into a death spiral from which they could not recover. By contrast, the companies that did succeed in pulling out of death spirals hired CEOs from within, focused on core values while iterating on success, and took big bets only after ideas had first proven themselves in the marketplace.

The first part of the book focused on the process of failure. The first phase is hubris, led by an aura of invincibility and a feeling that "we could do no wrong." At this point, pride overcomes any humility that might have been in place. It is very telling at this point that at this point the role of luck in past success is completely dismissed, and all past success is attributed to skill.

This is followed by over-reach, either through acquisition, entering a new market where there was no reason to believe the company could succeed or compete effectively, and undisciplined growth through hiring too quickly. The key here is that the wrong people are put in key positions, and there is no plan to fix this problem. What this means is that added bureaucracy is required to manage having wrong people all over the place, and that causes good people to leave.

At the height of apparent success, there is then denial of risk: those in power become surrounded by people afraid to tell them the truth or criticize them. Leaders make statements instead of asking questions, and politics take on a life of its own --- what's good for the individual becomes the most important metric, rather than what's good for the company as a whole. (Someone once told me that my biggest failure in managing my career was never asking, "What's in it for me?")

In the stage four of failure, companies grasp at straws for a silver bullet: CEOs from outside, hoping for discontinuous leaps into new technologies and new markets, and one series after another of desperate moves bring the company further and further to the brink. It is very telling that the counter examples do precisely the opposite: they tend to hire CEOs from inside, immediately make changes that ensure survival rather than investing in big acquisitions and new technologies, and refocus the company on the strengths.

In the final stage, the company enters a death spiral as reduction in cash reduces options until the company fails. At this point, the chance for renewal is rare, but it can be done if a sufficiently persistent, humble leader is found to lead.

Overall, the book is great, full of case studies for every stage of the process, and counter examples. What it is lacking is that the first 2 or 3 stages seem particularly tough to distinguish between a company in full steam ahead mode, and a company that's really starting to get too arrogant for its own good. I would definitely have liked Collins to go out on a limb and name a few companies that are in stage 1 and 2 to see what he really means. I would also really like more counter examples, as to how companies can recover and avoid the kind of Hubris he talks about. The reality seems to be the picking the right people to be in the right position from the CEO down. But there's no framework for how to do this, and I consider it an impossible to solve problem --- I'd like to have a few interview questions that bring out whether or not a leader has humility deep in his bones, or whether he's faking it, but I just can't think of a way to do so.

Regardless, this book is highly recommended, and I think that every executive or investor should have a copy in his library to remind himself of how great things look before a big fall.

End of Year Financial Advice

I'm reminded that it's the end of the year by the number of financial planning questions I get. Despite having written on the topic many times, I'm having to dig up old articles for the sake of my friends who aren't subscribed to my blog (tsk tsk).

Q: What is Tax Loss Harvesting?

Previous post on tax-loss harvesting One thing to note is that if you own one of Vanguard's funds, tax-loss harvesting is an all or nothing affair, because Vanguard only tracks your shares on an average basis. This is a good reason to switch to Vanguard's VIPER ETFs. Unfortunately, not all Vanguard funds have an equivalent VIPER, and vice-versa. The most notable one is the Vanguard Energy Fund, where the ETF and the fund are not related.

Q: I'm a Fidelity user, and I've noticed that the Vanguard funds are actually more expensive than the Fidelity equivalents. Why do people have such brand loyalty to Vanguard?

It turns out that index management is not at all easy or obvious. There have been several articles and analyses on Vanguard funds. For instance, William Bernstein has written about transactional skill on the part of Gus Sauter, the positive tracking error that Vanguard funds frequently exhibit, and how Vanguard funds frequently outperform what ought to be equivalent ETFs. No equivalent analysis of Fidelity funds have been made. There is also some evidence that transactional skill is persistent, unlike skill in say, picking stocks.

Q: I noticed that you bought a house recently. How does that relate to your portfolio, and are there any books equivalent to Random Walk Down Wall Street for real estate investing?

I view my purchase of a house as a consumption decision, not an investment decision. In other words, I don't expect my house to appreciate any more than my big screen TV (though perhaps it wouldn't depreciate like one), and moving into a house actually cost me money.

I did look into real estate investing several years ago, and it sounded like a massive hassle. However, it is possible to make money at it, and there are several people who do. (There are just as many people who don't) If you wish to hear the truth about real-estate investing, the no-nonsense guides by John T. Reed are the ones I recommend. You might decide (as I did) that this stuff is not for you, but at least you won't be suckered into thinking that real estate is a "get rich quick" scheme, unlike many others.

As far as valuing an individual house is concerned, I like to tell folks that as long time renters, they are expert at rentals. So estimate how much you would pay in rent to live in a particular house, and divide the purchase price by the annual price of renting that house. In the US, the long term price/rent ratio calculated this way is around 19. For the Bay Area, it's around 21. In 2007, the average price/rent ratio in the area was an astounding 50. At that price, it definitely made more sense to rent. Now, you can easily get 21, or even 19. There's good reason to believe that prices will decline further (remember, the average means that there are times when prices are far below average), so keep those ratios in mind when making your buy/rent decision.

Review: The Six Directions of Space

The Six Directions of Space is a novella, just over 80 pages long. I don't normally review short stories, but since Amazon has this selling at $75, or at almost $1/page, and I checked it out of the library for no charge, I feel obliged to talk about it.

The story revolves around an alternate history, a space faring empire in a timeline where the Mongols succeeded in taking over the world, and establishing itself as the premiere human civilization. They explore the universe through wormholes left behind by some ancient civilization. The story opens when Yellow Dog, and agent of the empire, is sent to investigate a far flung province. She enters deep cover, and uncovers a startling observation about the Infrastructure used to united the empire...

The story isn't long enough to really get more than a bare-bones plot and story line, and in many ways I feel like the setup was mostly performed as a misdirection. While it's a reasonably good story, it's not one of Reynolds' best. I would definitely not pay the $75 price.

Review: Your Money and Your Brain

Bernstein's latest book spends a bit of time talking about how the emotional aspect of investing is an important one, one that many smart people fall down on. In particular, he mentioned Jason Zweig's book, Your Money and Your Brain as being worthwhile reading on this topic.

The book starts off by discussing the difference between your visceral gut reactions and your thinking, reflective system. This comes into play during the current market turmoil, where many people, despite having had the "buy low" mantra drilled into them, were paralyzed by fear instead, or sold in a panic. Zweig then goes on to discuss various foibles of the human brain.

He starts off with our tendency to remember when we were correct, and forget when we are wrong. Even worse, studies show that we have a tendency to revise our past predictions in retrospect, so our understanding of our own accuracy is suspect. He then goes on to describe how everyone lives in a world where he's better looking, and above average in intelligence. Furthermore, nearly everyone thinks he has a larger amount of risk tolerance than he says he has. He then discusses anchoring and framing, two common short cuts that people use to make decisions---including investment decisions, where they can be particularly dangerous.

This is followed up by chapters on Fear, Surprise, Regret, and finally, Happiness, where the common discussions of happiness are touted (e.g., having a bad commute is one of the worst thing you can do for your peace of mind, and the hedonistic treadmill keeps you from achieving happiness through buying more stuff). None of these will come as a surprise to anyone who's done any reading in recent years, but it's all packaged up very nicely and clearly for an investment audience. What's particularly good are the suggestions on what you can do to overcome your brain's natural tendency to do the wrong thing as far as investing is concerned. (One particularly striking section of the book interviews money managers who have trained themselves to buy whenever they feel like throwing up because of stock market gyrations)

Recommended.

My Book Project

I heard about kickstarter yesterday, and immediately decided that this is a good way to collect beta-testers, people who want advanced reader copies, pre-orders, etc. The current intention is to use Amazon's self-publication service, and of course, Kindle editions.

However, for pre-ordering folks, I'm offering a DRM-free digital copy of the book if you pledge to support the project. My goal would be to get about 20 beta-testers out of this (hence the $1000 project goal). As with other kickstarter projects, if not enough people demonstrate interest, you're not on the hook for the costs.

I consider this an interesting experiment, and look forward to seeing how it will turn out.

Review: Mercury Falls

When Robert Kroese, who also works at Google, offered his comic novel Mercury Falls on the Kindle for $1.99, I bought it, to support another Googler, if nothing else.

The novel revolves around the apocalypse --- Christine, a reporter for the evangelical newspaper The Banner has seen so many cults proclaim the end of the world that she's now jaded, but after returning from yet another apparently fruitless such prediction, she discovers that her house has been broken into by a Demon, and the apocalypse ensues.

The style is evocative of Douglas Adams' classic, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series, complete with several digressions into tangents, an omniscient narrator who explains what's going on behind the scenes to the reader, and self-referential jokes.

Unfortunately, I found the book merely mildly amusing, rather than being funny the way Adams' series was. There are moments of amusing word play every chapter or so, and every once in a while a funny moment deserves a chortle. But while Adams' works frequently make subtle references to the human condition, I found that Mercury Falls frequently made cheap shots --- like having a flaming pillar of fire from heaven coming down and striking down hapless characters.

The book finishes in self-referential fashion, by constructing a rationale for its existence, tying up everything in a nice little knot, but ultimately, I found myself unsatisfied in the quest for laughs. Nevertheless, humor is an unpredictable thing, so if you have a Kindle you might as well download the sample and see if it sucks you in. But I found Neil Gaiman's Anansi Boys funnier and less obviously forced.

Honda Fit first impressions

Now that we've had a few weeks with the Honda, I can write up my first impressions. I've already mentioned that the main reason we bought the car was that the tandem can fit inside. You can see Pamela Blayley's write up for all the gory details, but as far as the 2009 Fit is concerned, the tandem fits very nicely with no problems, and plenty of room for camping gear, water bottles (this thing has 10 cup holders, 4 of which are ideal for cycling water bottles, so it's clearly designed to haul cyclists and the bike). I bought the Hollywood Fork Mount, went to Orchard Supply Hardware and bought a block of wood --- they even cut it for you if you ask nicely and some wood screws, screwed the fork mount into the wood to make a glider board, and I was all ready.

It's definitely no more than a 2 person job to load the bike into the car, since one of you has to hold the bike upright while the other runs back to the front of the car and lifts the rear wheel over the hump that the front seat makes. Nevertheless, it's just as fast as mounting a hitch-mounted bike rack and then lifting the bike onto the rack, along with all the the rigamarole I needed to do to get the fork of the tandem mounted onto the vertical bike rack.

Needless to say, all this running around means that the rear bumper of the car could get scratched, so after a couple of near misses, i bought the Rear Bumper Applique and installed it. We also needed bungee cords to secure the tandem so it wouldn't sway side to side while in the car, but the large number of anchor points inside the car made that easy. I was impressed by how many of those they were. Removing the bike from the car is far easier, and the first time we did it at a parking lot, other cyclists had to stop and stare, since they could not believe how a big bike like this could come out of a tiny car.

OK, enough bike talk. How does the car drive? It drives just fine. Some people refer to it as a sporty suspension, and it does feel a bit less of a boat than my Chrysler, but it's also a smaller car, so that's to be expected. The Fit is quieter than the convertible, but then, I would have been surprised if it wasn't. I love the reduced turning radius --- it certainly feels very agile when maneuvering in the parking lot.

I opted for the "Sport" trim, which came with alloy wheels, auto-stick paddle shifters, fog lights (useful for San Francisco), and a sound system that could take as input a USB port, and supposedly an ipod. To my disappointment, the ipod dock would not recognize my ancient 20GB ipod classic. Looking through the manual, it looked like it would only recognize the latest ipod classic or ipod nanos. Oh well, I plugged in a USB flash drive instead, and that worked just fine. The big shocker, though, was that it wouldn't display unicode characters (Chinese or Japanese!). A look through my document's paperwork showed that the car was indeed assembled and manufactured in Japan, which makes me wonder what the heck Honda was thinking! (Sure, the car was destined for California, but California has plenty of Chinese/Japanese/Korean speakers)

The sound system in the car is great --- nothing fancy, it just works. I also like it that the sound system also takes MP3 CDs, not just regular audio CDs. My guess, though, is that I'll buy a 16GB USB drive and just be done with it.

As previously mentioned, the car comes with sports paddle shifters, similar to the auto-stick that was on my Chrysler. It works, but has one flaw --- it doesn't display the current selected gear continuously, only when you first click the paddle. This is nasty, since the car seems to have the habit of down-shifting and up-shifting without telling you even though you've used the manual mode, so you could easily think you're already in one gear when the car's already shifted to another. Not a big problem, but makes the feature less attractive than you might imagine. (Why would you use auto-stick? Mostly to force the car into 3rd gear when descending a big mountain --- not a big deal to most people, but California is mountainous)

Sitting in the car, you get the impression that the car is pretty big. That's because even though it's a small car, the design of it is such that there's a lot of headroom. This is good, because it lets us get the tandem into the car without lowering the stoker seat, but it also contributes to giving the car's interior an airy feel, which I like.

All in all, it seems like a pretty nice car so far, and I'll report some more after we've had a chance to take a few long trips with it.

Programming Tools

Every time I think about programming tools, I get really annoyed. If you've been programming for a while, you probably started off with the basic PRINT statement as your debugging tool way back when micro-computers were too small and insufficiently powerful to run anything as sophisticated as a debugger.

When Turbo Pascal 3.0 came out for the PC, it was a revelation, at least for me. You could have a programming environment that could not only compile at lightning fast speeds, but it too, was restricted to debugging via print statements --- debuggers only became available starting from Turbo Pascal 4.0.

When I got to college and had access to UNIX machines, having a debugger was a revelation. You could single-step through code, print variables, set break points (and even conditional break points), walk up and down the stack, and if you recompiled the code, you could restart the program and the debugging would automatically pick up the new binary. I got out of the habit of writing print statements.

As an intern at Geoworks, I became even more spoiled. Geoworks had an in-house debugger called swat, and the basic development environment was a SUN workstation connected to a PC via a serial cable. You would then cross-compile on your SUN (using a distributed compiling environment), download the code via the serial cable to the PC, and swat would run on your workstation while talking to a debugging stub on the PC. Swat was ridiculously sophisticated --- to this day, I still have not used a debugger that works as well. (The author, Adam de Boor, like most of the smart people I've ever met, now works at Google) First of all, it had an extension language built into it (tcl). But secondly, the programmers working on GEOS had a very tool-oriented ethic: every time a new data structure was added, they would also write a swat extension that understood how the data structure was laid out in memory. This enabled you to type "heapwalk" at the swat prompt, and the debugger would then walk through memory and dump out all the data structures in human-readable, human-formatted form! If you had a linked list, you could tell it to walk the linked list and dump every element in it. If it was a linked list of a certain object, you could tell it to dump out the actual objects while walking through the list, rather than just dumping the pointer. Even though GEOS was written entirely in assembly (yes, even the applications --- how do you think everything fit into 512KB?), it felt more sophisticated than any high level language except Lisp.

When I graduated school and worked at Pure Software, we took a lot of pains to make sure the purify would work with debuggers. Stack traces, etc., would work with whatever debugger you used, and variable names always remained intact. This was despite incremental linkers and other techniques that Purify applied to binaries under inspection. To this day, no other UNIX vendor or free software tool has deployed an incremental linker.

When I started having to do Windows development again, the IDEs such as Visual C++ felt like a step backwards --- they had a lot of pretty visuals, but none of them were extensible, so you couldn't teach it about your new data structure, or get it to walk a list. Nevertheless, I still didn't need to write PRINT statements. When I ended up writing VxDs for a living in 1995, I had a much more primitive environment, and it was painful, but I quickly learned to abstract away most of the issues and not rewrite VxDs as much as possible.

Enter the internet server age, and I feel like it's 1986 again, and I might as well be programming on a PDP-11 using RSTS/E BASIC. Today, any kind of cloud programming that requires harnessing multiple machines essentially relies on RPCs. One would think that with all the knowledge we have from building old debuggers and such systems, we would be able to do things like single-step through a procedure from one machine to a remote machine, and still be able to do stack dumps, walk stack traces, and print data structures. The sad truth is, we can't. In fact, in many environments, you can barely attach a debugger to a remote process, and in some cases if you do attach a debugger and then detach it, the process immediately exits. Symbolic variable names? Thanks to C++ name mangling, I can barely decipher error messages from the compiler, let alone use a symbolic name in a debugger. Combine that with threads, remote systems, and other such setups, and pretty soon you're back to debugging using PRINT statements. You might dress it up and call it "logging" (and I know I've been guilty of doing that myself), but really, it's debugging via PRINTs, and as someone who calls himself a software engineer, whenever I put in yet another LOG statement I feel ashamed, both for myself and for my profession --- we had such beautiful tools in the 80s and 90s, but they are all wasted in the internet era. Yes, I'm well aware that people have written RPC analyzers --- but again, they're all after-the-fact analysis tools --- not nearly as useful as being able to "stop the state of the world and examine the state at leisure", which was what swat and the other tools were capable of doing.

What's responsible for this state of affairs? I think the big one is the decline of the market for programming tools. After Borland died, there was no longer an effective programming tools company that had the kind of end-to-end reach that could provide a development environment that was sophisticated. Microsoft all but stopped evolving its programming tools. Since it was impossible to compete against the free gdb/gcc/g++ tools (and now the free Eclipse), it became a case of "don't beat them, join them." Without end-to-end control of a development environment, it's hard to build a debugger that would do the right thing --- Microsoft could probably do that for its environment, as can Apple, but neither are power-houses in client/server/distributed computing. Google and Yahoo could invest in their distributed debugging infrastructure, but have chosen to invest resources elsewhere. The net result: I don't feel like our programming tools have done anything but gone backwards, despite all the progress we've made in other areas.

Some conversations are too funny not to post

Back when she was at Google, X used to work out with me every so often. Not being a motivated health nut, as soon as she left, she lapsed, but recently tried to get started again:

X: I'm thinking about seeing my doctor because everytime after i work out my chest area hurt. I'm not sure if it's my heart or if i'm pulling muscle and just exercising wrong.
Me: Do you feel nauseous? That can happen if you work too hard.
X: i don't feel nauseous. i just feel a tight feeling near my chest but i don't think it's my heart
me: What are you doing when you feel the tight feeling? running? lifting weights?
X: no, stretches, light weights. really light tho, lighter than what we used to do.
Me: oh, that just means your bra is too tight
X: REALLY?!?!?!??! .... OK, I'll cancel my doctor's appointment.

Review: Dark City, Director's Cut

I was first introduced to the movie, Dark City by Steve Grimm, who told me that it was one of the best movies ever made, only marred by the movie studios who stuck in a narration at the start that spoiled everything. He loaned me the New Line Platinum edition DVD, and told me to stick it into my DVD player and skip the first chapter.

I went home, and did exactly that, and my brothers and I were captivated by the movie. The story was well-told, the actors portrayed what felt like a very real world but in a surreal environment, and the visuals quite unlike any movies I had seen up to this point. When I saw that the director's cut was out, I bought it, despite my fear that somehow knowing the plot would make the movie less watchable.

It turned out that the director's cut is only very subtly different from the original theatrical release. The opening narration is gone (a mistake admitted by the director), and some scenes have been extended for more character development, but to be honest it was so long ago since I saw the theatrical release that I no longer remember what scenes were there as opposed to not.

Regardless, the story is still compelling, moving forward quickly enough to keep your interest, but not so fast as to lose you. William Hurt plays his role with verve, and Jenny Conelly has a luminosity in her scenes that has only grown since. All in all, 90 minutes very well spent.

Highly recommended. (Note: this movie is R-rated, not for any particular scene, but the intensity might be a bit much for young viewers. Lisa had a nightmare afterwards)

Review: Stop Acting Rich

At this point, has there anyone who hasn't read about The Millionaire Next Door? When one of my brothers read that book he told me that the saddest thing about reading the book was that he had to learn to be a cheapskate like me.

Stop Acting Rich is a follow-up, in the fashion of Hollywood studios who can't help milking a movie Franchise over and over again until every marginal dollar has been made.

The book makes several points:

• Many people who drive expensive cars and live in rich neighborhoods are themselves not rich. The few who are, tend to come from a special type of household and childhood that they are trying to banish by deliberately spending on "the best."
  
• Living in a wealthy neighborhood before you are wealthy makes it harder to accumulate wealth. People measure themselves by comparing what they have to what their neighbors have. By constantly surrounding yourself by people who are so wealthy that $50,000 cars are a minuscule portion of their net-worth, you set yourself on a hedonistic treadmill which depletes your wealth instead of accumulating it.
  
• Engineers are the most frugal millionaires in America. They have no problem living below their means, and driving cheap cars for the sake of efficiency. Engineers account for 7.6% of millionaires but are only 2.3% of the working population. They also never pay retail. What amuses me the most about this, of course, is that engineers have a notoriously hard time attracting mates, which tells me that a lot of "acting rich" is really about demonstrating proof of reproductive suitability (don't ask me whether the strategy succeeds --- the author doesn't mention it). And true to form, I checked this book out of the local library rather than buying it.
  
• By contrast, middle managers and attorneys have a hard time accumulating wealth despite having high incomes. That's because their peers tend to live in expensive neighborhoods, which tends to accelerate their spending. This also explains why I've occasionally seen signs of jealousy from managers in the past.

The author makes this point by using examples from homes, watches, and cars (I would have loved it if he had included Apple products), but the problem is that we don't see good statistical analysis --- if a large number of millionaires buy Toyotas, that doesn't tell us whether or not buying Toyotas is an independent variable, or whether they do prefer Toyotas to a larger extent than the general population.

All in all, the book is entertaining, but provides limited additional insights if you've already read The Millionaire Next Door, so I can't in good faith recommend it.

Review: The Investor's Manifesto

The Investor's Manifesto is Bill Bernstein's latest book on investing. I was worried that since I had read most of his previous books, The Four Pillars of Investing, and The Birth of Plenty, that this would just be a rehash of old material so brilliantly covered by David Swenson in Unconventional Success.

Bernstein wrote that one of his goals was to write a book even more accessible than Four Pillars, and I think to that end he succeeded --- I easily breezed through the book in a couple of days, and there's no sophisticated math here to scare even the most liberal of liberal arts majors away. A big important section that wasn't properly covered before is the emotional aspects of investing --- Bernstein points out that most investors over-estimate their risk tolerance (something frequently causes them to buy high and sell low), and that faddish investing (investing so as to have something to brag about at dinner parties) is likely to have extremely poor results. He puts it all across in a very witty fashion as well, for instance, writing about the fad for investing in China, he points out that the Chinese stock market has had a negative 3.3 percent return over the last 2 decades, and in addition:
Finally, in many developing markets, governments do not protect shareholders from the rapacity of management as well as in nations with more established legal systems. In other words, in these countries, management and controlling shareholders find it disturbingly easy to loot a company. Even more bluntly, a nation that does not protect its children from lead-contaminated toys will likely not protect its foreign shareholders.

In particular, the chapters on asset allocation and the provided sample asset allocations are now very refined in explanation. His advice on rebalancing, for instance, is even more nuanced than before, and covers all the tax considerations that were not always mentioned in previous books.

He points out on the one hand, given the failure of Wall Street professionals to beat the market or even match the market indices' performance, it seems extremely unlikely that asking all Americans to manage their own 401(k) portfolio would result in a good outcome. On the other hand, hiring a financial advisor is also fraught with danger:
people do not go into the financial services industry for the same reasons that attract individuals to social work, government service, or elementary education. It is rare to meet a hedge fund manager or mutual fund executive who has a vision of the world that extends very far beyond his or her own self-interest. It is not grossly unfair to observe that most seek employment at brokerage houses, hedge funds, and mutual funds for the same reason Willie Sutton supposedly offered for robbing banks: “Because that’s where the money is.” Consequently, you should extend an extra degree of caution to anyone who wants to manage your finances.

These are dilemmas that I myself haven't been able to resolve. Bernstein then finishes up the book by describing how you can inoculate your children against American brand-awareness and marketing, as well as teaching them how to manage their finances well. This isn't typically covered in many financial books, and short as his advice is, I think it will prove effective.

All in all, this is a very good book, and very much worth your time to read. Highly recommended!

Kindle App for your PC

The Kindle App for your PC just launched. What's really cool is that it doesn't seem to take up a slot as far as devices are concerned (which I would have known, since I already have 6 devices).

Another nice thing is that tables, etc., show up much larger on a 24" screen than they do in the book. This is particularly useful for non-fiction books, such as Value Averaging, which has lots of tables, equations, and charts, all rendered as pictures on the Kindle.

Even if you don't have a Kindle, and like reading on a netbook, this application basically makes all of Kindle's content available to you. Given the number of free books for the Kindle, that makes it worth the download.

Review: Every Landlord's Tax Deduction Guide

Every landlord's tax deduction guide is a guide to tax deductions oriented towards a landlord. Of course, some people I know run their rental businesses on a cash basis and evade taxes that way, but I don't advocate doing that, since pissing off the IRS is a good way to lose a lot of money.

Once you've decided to run a legitimate (at least in the eyes of the IRS) business, there are several questions, including:

• What does depreciation mean, and how do I take advantage of it?
  
• If I upgrade the unit, do I get to write that off against income?
  
• What if I'm renting out a room in a house, as opposed to the whole house?
  
• What if I rent it below market to my cousin?

As you can see, any complication at all, and you need to start worrying about how the tax system works. In addition, by knowing what sort of items are deductible, and what aren't, you get to do better tax planning and increase your after-tax profits.

You expect tax books to be extremely boring, but this one was very well-written. It's still not as interesting as say, a Richard Morgan novel, but if you read it in small chunks everything is laid out clearly and you won't be bored. The only obvious flaw I can find is that they don't emphasize how fraught with danger the home office deduction is --- it is easily the biggest red flag the IRS looks for when seeking tax cheats, and if all you do is set aside a small portion of your home for it it is probably not worth putting up with the tax audits as a result.

All in all, this book is recommended if you're running a rental business --- I can see myself looking over it again in April as I file my taxes. And before you ask, yes, if you're running a rental business this book does qualify as a deduction.

Review: LG WM2016 Washing Machine

One of the benefits of owning a house is that I now get to have a washer and dryer. Prior to moving into my house, I had been doing laundry at work. At one point, I even would rig up a trailer to my bike so I could ride in with a load of laundry and get it done. It felt a bit ridiculous, but since I had absolutely no room at my apartment for a washer and dryer, I felt entirely justified.

When I moved to Munich last year, the office there didn't have a laundry machine at work, so I was forced to buy a used washing machine. Talk to a European who's lived in the USA about washing machines, especially a German, and you'll get a lecture about how German washing machines are much better in terms of cleaning laundry, energy efficiency, water efficiency. A typical German would tell you, "The only thing the American machines are good at, is not washing your laundry very well quickly!" German machines took a long time to run.

To my surprise, when I started shopping for washing machines, the one that stood out was the LG WM2016. It was the lowest priced machine that qualified for the PG&E energy efficiency appliance rebate. In fact, for Santa Clara county, the water company chipped in for a grand total of a $200 rebate, so the fact that it was $600 cheaper than all the other Tier 3 machines meant that it was a no-brainer. Consumer reports said good things about it, as did all the other web-sites that rated energy efficient washers. I bought the machine at BestBuy, in part to get the delivery and installation taken care of (these high efficiency must be properly leveled, so it's worth the $30 to get them to do it for you), and in part to pick up a 5 year warranty. I don't usually pick up extended warranties for products, but my brother convinced me that these front-loader units (at least the ones sold in America) are still not fully debugged, and since I intended to get a renter, I decided that the reviews on epinions meant that I should get a warranty.

Operating the machine is pretty straight forward: stuff all the laundry into the drum, close the door, drop in some detergent and bleach, and push the play button, and all the defaults will do the right thing. This machine was more sophisticated than my German machine in that it gave me a time estimate for when the laundry would be done (and yes, expect it to take at least an hour).

The trick lies in the various rules you have to abide by if you want to keep your machine reliable. First of all, you must use HE-rated detergent. This is a big deal because normal detergent generates too many suds for these machines, eventually clogging up the machine's outbound pipe, and resulting in a dead machine. I thought the detergent would be more expensive, but it turns out that Safeway sells a 96-load pack of HE detergent for $10 under their house brand. To prevent the renter from cheaping out and using normal detergent, I've simply folded the cost of detergent into her rent, so she uses ours.

Next, when you're done with laundry, you must leave the laundry door open. Actually, all washing machines have to be treated this way, otherwise, mold will grow in the machine and your clothes will never smell clean again. It's just that a top-loading machine would typically have its lid open when laundry is done without interfering with anything else, while a front loader's door could get in your way. I solved this problem by putting the washing machine in a place where the open door wouldn't be an issue.

The machine has all the functions you might expect --- separate settings for washing towels, delicates, even a hand-wash mode. You can pre-rinse, pre-wash, add an extra wash cycle, set spin speeds, and decide what temperature of water to use. When it first starts up, it will turn the drum over --- that's the machine weighing your laundry so it can figure out how much to use! The result is the machine is very quiet, extremely water and energy efficient, and takes forever to do laundry. That would have driven me wild if I had to share a laundry machine with 10000 other Googlers, but for just Lisa, me, and the renter, it's just fine.

All in all, we've had the machine for 4 months now, and it's working like a champ. We're not heavy laundry users, maybe doing a couple of loads a week, but we're quite pleased with it. I'll post a long term report after a few years to see how it goes.

In case you're wondering, for the dryer, we just went with whatever scratch-and-dent unit Best Buy had in stock and went for the cheapest one. There's no difference in energy efficiency amongst gas dryers, so that's the correct selection method.