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Wednesday, January 03, 2024

2023 Bahamas - Nov 26th: Anna Cay to Man O'War Cay

I got up at 5:30, cooked and ate a quick breakfast, and hurried to grab the paddleboard before the kids got hold of it. It turned out I didn't have to worry --- they were feeling too lazy to fight me for it. I paddleboarded around the area, visiting houses along the shore as well as Ana Cay, where a huge mansion was under construction with piers already there marked "Private".

The plan today was to visit Fowl Cay and make another attempt to snorkel there. The book listed no less than 16 mooring balls, with 6 of them marked missing to give the air of confidence. We started motoring and then realized that the wind had stiffened to about 15 knots, which meant we could sail! As we sailed we passed Man O' War Cay and started scouting locations to spend the night.

Anchoring at Fowl Cay, things looked promising as there were already two Catamarans anchor'd out there. The dive checked felt good as well, there was still surge but nowhere as bad as what we felt a few days earlier.

Getting out the dinghy, we loaded everyone and the snorkel gear into the dinghy, coaxing the kids as well. We turned the corner on the island after passing all the anchor'd Catamarans and discovered that the waves were still so high that the dinghy started taking on water. We looked for mooring balls but didn't see any. Eventually we took on so much water that we gave up and turned around. One of the other Catamarans had weighed anchor and was leaving, but at the other one which looked like they had a professional crew, they told us that all the mooring balls were gone. "You have to go all the way out to the reef where the big waves are and drop a dinghy anchor. If you wait, we'll go out there and you can follow us." We didn't have a bailer so we had to go to the Katja to get bucket out to bail the dinghy sufficiently to the point where we could get it onto the davits! We were discouraged, as it didn't seem like it would be safe to do this even with a professional crew out there to mark the way. I also had no confidence in the dinghy's puny anchor holding up against the surge.

The kids were elated as they had decided they didn't enjoy snorkeling. We raised the dinghy, taking the time to drain it out as much as possible while we debated what to do. We still had time to go to Snake Cay or Sandy Cay, but that wouldn't leave much time. We were all pretty tired. I proposed we visited the main town (XXX) in Man O'War Cay. It being a Sunday everything would be closed, but there was a path to the Atlantic side where we could take a look.

The habor entrance was incredibly narrow, requiring precise alignment with the "No Wake" sign inside the harbor. There were no depth concerns as the approach was deep, but this was not something for a novice --- fortunately in my youth, docking in narrow Sausalito slips in difficult conditions at night on a monohull had given me confidence.

We made it into the harbor, picked up a mooring ball, ate lunch, and then dropped the dinghy for a visit. This town was nowhere near as picturesque as Hope Town, but there was a street to the Atlantic, and we took it. Once again, we had the beach all to ourselves, walking the length of it and back. The town had a big shipbuilding business, and had been one for more than a couple of centuries.

After the walk, we made the call to just anchor in the northern most cove of Man O'War Cay, where we had seen a beautiful beach at the narrowest point ono the island. It looked like it could be a good place to spend our last evening with a Beam Reach back to Marsh Harbor to return Katja the next day, There were 3 other boats anchor'd out at DIckie's Bay, but there was nothing in that location to do, so we opted for the difficult cove instead.

Doing all this was easier said than done, of course. First off, the exit from XXX harbor was just as difficult as the entrance, and at close to low tide, more than a little harrowing. I relied on Arturo and Mark to help guide me while exiting. The northern most Cove on Man O' War Cay was difficult because there were powerlines that you had to avoid hitting with your anchor, which was why you had to be inside the cove before laying down the hook.

Even laying down the hook once I was done with difficult manuevering was not easy. We tried 3 times in 2 different anchoring spots before the anchor caught. However, Arturo had so little confidence that he told me not to join him in the dive check. "This feels like that time at Witch's Point!" he said. "Then if it doesn't work out, swim around and identify good anchorages. "How far in can we go?" "Not that far!" Arturo swam out to the anchor and immediately crossed his hands in the air. He swam around the cove and identified a patch of send that could serve as good anchorage. I waited for him to come aboard before we weighed anchor one last time. Arturo's judgement was sound: this time the anchor caught with no ado.

I noticed that the other side of Man 'O War Cay was marked with reefs. "Maybe it'll be good snorkeling there!" Katie and Mark went first, swimming to the beach and then walking over. By the time I got to the beach, Mark had scoped it out. "No good. Surge too much and there's really nothing to see." We settled in for some relaxation. Boen first paddleboarded to shore, then Bowen did. There was a bunch of shells that had been polished and left in the shelter straddling the Atlantic and the Sea of Abacos. One of them could be blown like a trumpet and Boen succeeded in doing so.

Once Bowen heard about that ashore he decided he would paddle to shore and pick up the conch to bring home. He actually succeeded in doing so but not without help from Arturo. The wind and waves were just strong enough to make maneuvering and pointing the paddleboard challenging.

We all made the best of our last full day, relaxing and eating the rest of the food aboard. We started sorting out all the stuff in the salon according to who owned what and started backing up photos to the laptop we had brought for that purpose.







Friday, December 29, 2023

2023 Bahamas: Nov 25th - Lynyard Cay to Anna Cay

 

In the morning, the kids played Uber a couple of times while I swam and looked through the book. A snorkel spot named "Fish Hotel" caught my eye. Sandy Cay was on the way there, and I suggested that as our first stop. Wind was light, and despite the early hour, there was already a sailboat anchored off the island. I eschewed anchoring in the deep water and parked at the same place as the day before, where I was the only boat. It took 3 tries to get the boat to anchor, but a dive check upon the successful attempt turned out nothing untoward.

We scrambled to get the dinghy out but the boys balked and Xiaoqin elected to stay with them. This time, we remembered to start the generator and water maker during our snorkel. Taking the dinghy out, we parked at the same mooring ball before as Arturo said it was the best one.  Upon getting into the water, some other snorkelers waved at us and made the sign for a shark! Indeed there was a shark! We watched the shark chase two mating fishes around --- he probably wasn't hungry enough to really nail one to eat them --- all he was was disturb their mating behavior.



Marcie cried "Turtle!" and indeed a curiuos turtle had swam up to her. This turtle was the least purturbed by people that I had ever encountered --- it even let Katherine and I touch him. This was shaping to be a fabulous snorkel --- the surge was less than the day before and I wasn't cold at all. We swam around and explored more of the reef. "Every mooring ball is good!" said Arturo. After a while we realized that we didn't know where Niniane was. It was about 20 minutes into the snorkel so I suggested we started heading slowly towards the boat. I wasn't worried about Niniane --- she'd explored reefs on her own before and was a certified open water diver. But accidents can happen. We made it into the dinghy and looked around a bit before someone spotted Niniane. She saw everyone on the dinghy and started heading back.

With everyone back on the Katja, we put up the dinghy and were off just as more boats descended onto Sandy Cay. Fish Hotel was on Tilloo Cay, a narrow strip of an island that boasted many treacherous channels. We drove in and anchored off Tavern Cay. The dive check went well, but when we swam in search of the Fish Hotel, we saw a couple of tree trunks with a bunch of inverted jelly fish and some fish using the dead trees as a coral. Visibility was terrible and the surge was none too comfortable. After that disappointing snorkel, we debated what to do next. We were originally going to visit Hopetown the next day, but since we were all snorkeled out, a visit to hope town for lunch seemed in order.

We turned on the motor and started motoring up the straights but were soon in shallow water. A quick look at the cruising guide suggested that there was a way to get through, but I no longer trusted the book. We turned around and raised the sail, and started sailing to the other side of the straits. Once on the other side, I discovered that the Katja didn't do a good job sailing into the wind, and the straits were too narrow to keep going. After a little bit of attempting to sail in light wind, we gave up, dropped the sails, and motored into Hopetown harbor at 3:15pm It took several tries to pick up a Mooring ball, but we did pick one up and used the public dinghy dock.


Hopetown was picturesque in the little bit we explored, finding Vernon's grocery store. Vernon was an old man who was proud of the store and was famous for his key lime pies. He didn't display those, however, only bringing out one when we asked! We bought banana bread and Boen and Bowen each got a muffin. On the way out we bought a six pack of diet coke at $1.10 each, which seemed absurdly expensive but keeping everyone caffeinated seemed like a good idea. Niniane said she was going to stay in Hope Town for 4 days after the sailing cruise was over and took the opportunity to explore while Arturo, Xiaoqin, Bowen and I took the treasures back to the boat.

"How long do we have?" "We should leave by 4:30pm, latest." "OK, everyone staying, please be at the dinghy dock by 4:15pm." We took everything back, and then drove to the dinghy dock to find no one there and dropped off at the Elbow Cay Reef lighthouse. Then we saw others waiting at the dinghy dock and drove over to pick everyone up.

Arturo went to get ice (despite the closed sign on the marina office), while the rest of us walked up the Elbow Reef lighthouse from whence we got glorious views of the area in the late afternoon light. The lighthouse was the last manually operated kerosene lamp lighthouse in North Ameica. The mechanism had to be rewound by hand every 2 hours, and the light while dim by modern standards was still useful.

Leaving the lighthouse reluctantly by 4:30pm, we maneuvered out into the harbor after dropping mooring ball. It was getting late and I didn't feel like risking visiting Man O'War Cay right away and getting to do a dive check in the dark. Instead, I headed to my backup location, which was right off Ana Cay at about 6' of water. We anchored with no problems and the dive check revealed a solidly held anchor.

We got out the paddleboard and while there was a current it wasn't too bad --- the kids could play in this in the fading light. Dinner was Louis and Arturo's special --- Pasta, Sausages, and Vegetables mixed. I was still hungry after dinner and opened up a can of spam and ate much of it.

Stargazing was marred by clouds, a nearly full moon, and missing meteor showers. But since we were so close, we could see the Elbow Reef Lighthouse operating in its full glory, bright enough to be seen but not blinding.




Thursday, December 28, 2023

Review: Number Go Up

 After being disappointed by Michael Lewis's Going Infinite, I read on Molly White's blog that Number Go Up was potentially far better. I checked it out from the library and finished it in two days, simply because it was such compelling reading.

There's a very rudimentary explanation of how blockchain works, and Zeke Faux doesn't shy away from explaining how blockchain is far from anonymous:

the way the blockchain database works, transaction records are never erased. And while it doesn’t record names, it does assign a unique address to each wallet. If any wallet can be tied to a specific individual, then an investigator can easily see every transaction that person has ever made. Investigators could tie a person to an address by making a purchase from them, just as they might buy drugs from a dealer before arresting them; or they could watch for transfers to exchanges, like Bankman-Fried’s FTX, then send subpoenas to the exchange for user records. Once the FBI busted Silk Road, the dark-web drug market, it was able to track down many of the dealers on the site. As the writer Andy Greenberg explained, “Bitcoin had turned out to be practically the opposite of untraceable: a kind of honeypot for crypto criminals that had, for years, dutifully and unerasably recorded evidence of their dirty deals.” (kindle loc 1736)

 The profiles of the various characters is probably the most boring part of the book --- to me, all the scammers kinda look alike, with very iffy backgrounds and not very interesting bios. None of them can explain why their coin or NFT token or whatever should be worth anything more than zero. I guess many of the crypto investors are betting on the bigger fool theory to be able to unload their stash at non-zero values. There's an aside where Faux watches Michael Lewis interview Sam Bankman-Fried:

the author’s questions were so fawning, they seemed inappropriate for a journalist. Listening from the packed auditorium, I started to question whether Lewis was really writing a book, or if FTX had paid him to appear. (Lewis later told me that he had in fact come to report for his book and that he was not compensated.) Lewis said he knew next to nothing about cryptocurrency. But he seemed quite confident that it was great. The writer said that, contrary to popular opinion, crypto was not well suited for crime. He posited that U.S. regulators were hostile to the industry because they’d been brainwashed or bought off by established Wall Street banks. I wondered if he simply hadn’t heard about the countless crypto scams, but the thought seemed preposterous. “You look at the existing financial system, then you look at what’s been built outside the existing financial system by crypto, and the crypto version is better,” Lewis said. (kindle loc 2292)

Then he gets into the crypto scheme in the Philipines during the pandemic called Axle Infinitie. The ending of that bubble is both comic and tragic:

Crypto bros and Silicon Valley venture capitalists gave Filipinos false hope by promoting an unsustainable bubble based on a Pokémon knockoff as the future of work. And making matters worse, in March 2022, North Korean hackers broke into a sort-of crypto exchange affiliated with the game and made off with $600 million worth of stablecoins and Ether. The heist helped Kim Jong Un pay for test launches of ballistic missiles, according to U.S. officials. Instead of providing a new way for poor people to earn cash, Axie Infinity funneled their savings to a dictator’s weapons program (kindle loc 2251)

There's a section in there where he replays an interview between  Matt Levine and Bankman-Fried, where Bankman-Fried essentially describes a Ponzi scheme:

Levine asked a simple question about “yield farming,” the investment technique Jason Stone had used at Celsius. As Bankman-Fried attempted to explain how it worked, he had more or less laid out the how-to of running a crypto pyramid scheme. “You start with a company that builds a box,” Bankman-Fried said. “They probably dress it up to look like a life-changing, you know, world-altering protocol that’s gonna replace all the big banks in thirty-eight days or whatever. Maybe for now actually ignore what it does, or pretend it does literally nothing.” Bankman-Fried explained that it would take very little effort for this box to issue a token that would share in the profits from the box. “Of course, so far, we haven’t exactly given a compelling reason for why there ever would be any proceeds from this box, but I don’t know, you know, maybe there will be,” Bankman-Fried said. Levine said that the box and its “box token” should be worth nothing. Bankman-Fried didn’t disagree. But he said, “In the world that we’re in, if you do this, everyone’s gonna be like, ‘Ooh, box token. Maybe it’s cool.’ ” Curious people would start buying box token. And the box could start giving out free box token to anyone who put money inside, just as Axie had rewarded players with Smooth Love Potions. Crypto investors would see they could earn a higher yield by putting their money in the box than in a bank. Before long, Bankman-Fried said, the box would be stuffed with hundreds of millions of dollars, and the price of box token would be rising. “This is a pretty cool box, right? Like this is a valuable box, as demonstrated by all the money that people have apparently decided should be in the box. And who are we to say that they’re wrong about that?” Sophisticated players would put more and more money in the box, Bankman-Fried said, “and then it goes to infinity. And then everyone makes money.” “I think of myself as like a fairly cynical person,” Levine said. “And that was so much more cynical than how I would’ve described farming. You’re just like, well, I’m in the Ponzi business and it’s pretty good.” (kindle loc 2359)

The big reveal in the book actually isn't about SBF. In the last third of the book, Faux discovers that the various internet crypto scammers (these are people who would tease you that they have a sure-fire way of making money on crypto using their special app, get you to download the app, and then use that app to siphon money away from you) are part of a global human-trafficking ring that essentially used human slaves to scale up these crypto scams. (In this day and age of AI, you might imagine that they'd use chatbots, but obviously machine learning models are still much more expensive than human slaves)

And the problem was large enough that it could account for a serious amount of Tether transactions. If Chinatown held six thousand people scamming like Vicky Ho, and each had to meet a quota of $300 a day—the number I’d heard from some victims—that one compound alone would generate more than $600 million a year in illicit proceeds. From what I had learned, it seemed that this scam slave complex would not be able to operate without crypto. And the benefits of crypto to the rest of the world seemed to be limited to enabling a zero-sum gambling mania. (kindle loc 3281)

 The conclusion the book comes down to is that Tether and Bitcoin have sufficient real world applications (not legal ones, given the extremely high transaction fees associated with conversion from crypto to legal tender) that countinue to fund its existence despite the crypto crash . What's more, with high interest rates being paid out by T-bills and Treasury Bonds, Tether can now make money legitimately:

In May 2023, Tether announced that it had converted most of its holdings into U.S. government bonds. It said that due to the high interest rates, it had generated $1.5 billion in profits in the first quarter alone—an insane amount for an unregulated offshore company. That number would be a good quarter for corporate giants like Raytheon, Nike, or Disney. Tether had, if its numbers were trustworthy, become one of the 150 most profitable companies in the world. (kindle loc 4208)

The author likes to give the government regulatory agencies a hard time  about ignoring the problem of crypto scams. But given the international scale of this problem, and how lightly funded the various agencies are, I can only imagine that it would be very hard to fund an investigation. But now that crypto is dead maybe at least the scammers are finding it harder to operate.

Anyway, I enjoyed the book, learned a lot from it, and it actually had insights I hadn't found anywhere else. Recommended.


Wednesday, December 27, 2023

2023 Bahamas: November 24th Snake Cay to Lynyard Cay

In the morning, while waiting for others to finish breakfast, I realized that the winds were calm enough that breaking out the paddleboard made sense. I got it out and pumped up the paddleboard and took it for a spin around the area. Paddle boarding is like having a bicycle on the water, with wind and current taking the place of hills. To my surprise Bowen and Boen (especially Boen) took an interest in paddle boarding and took it out for a spin as well. They had shown little interest in paddle boarding in previous years but I guess they finally felt comfortable enough to try it!

The dinghy tour had to be done before low tide at 10:00am, so we departed promptly at 8:00am around the corner where the cars were. Even at mid-tide, there were still many shallow spots. But this place was amazing --- there were turtles galore, and a sting ray jumped out of the water 3 times during our visit. I had tried to memorize the route the night before, but what I should have done should have been to create a course on Garmin connect and download it into the watch. Nevertheless, while we got lost several times, we managed to backtrack and make our way out of there by 9:30am after being much enamored by the sights of the salt marsh.

The boys took some time playing with the paddleboard again, and then it was time to pick up anchor and motor over to Sandy Cay, which promised good snorkeling. We anchor'd on the leeward side of Sandy Cay, where there were already 2 boats waiting. We noticed that on the other side of the Cay, where the sand was deep (25', necessitating a 150' anchor rode), there were more boats and lots of dinghys tied to various mooring balls. This place was crowded but that usually meant great snorkeling. We put down the dinghy and loaded everyone with their snorkel gear on it, and once the first few swimmers were in the water they all said "wow". This was the best snorkel spot we would find for the entire trip.

The others saw spotted Rays, but I missed it, since we had to spend much time convincing the boys to go into the water. Even then, it didn't take 20 minutes before they headed back to the dinghy.

When we were all done we debated what to do. We looked at the tide tables and realized that we could make mid-tide entry into Little Harbor and get out again and not be trapped in there overnight. We made with haste to the harbor entrance, though not without observing a couple of coves on Lynyard Cay that looked like it would make for a good overnight spot. At Little Harbor, we negotiated the entrance with 3' of bottom to spare, picking up mooring balls for the first time. The boys made use of their new found skill with the paddleboard to paddleboard to Pete's while the rest of us dingy'd over. The walk to the ruined lighthouse was recommended by the book as was snorkeling off the beach, but when we walked to the lighthouse we were disappointed by the views. I'd say that the visit only netted us the opportunity to leave a couple of garbage bags for the hefty price of $10 each.

After departing Little Harbor, we debated between Bridges Cay, the Bight of Old Robinson, and Lynyard Cay, but decided that the conditions were settled enough that Lynyard Cay was likely to net fewer mosquitoes than the alternatives. There were two other boats already in the cove, but we settled in between them with plenty of sea room between us. The wind and current were so calm in the cove that the kids could get out the paddleboard and row to the beach, scaring away the poor folks who had it all to themselves prior to our arrival. The kids played an elaborate game of Uber, where Boen would pick up Bowen, drop him off at the beach (where he would look for coconuts or conch shells), and then Bowen would shout for Boen, and Boen would come and pick him up in the paddleboard. Bereft of transportation, I got out my goggles and swam to shore without fins just for a workout.

The sunset was gorgeous. The stargazing was marred by the increasingly bright and full moon.









Tuesday, December 26, 2023

2023 Bahamas: Nov 23rd Mermaid Reef Great Abacos to Snake Cay

 I looked in the book and decided Snake Cay was worth a visit. Not only was it marked as having good snorkeling, the cruising guide also had a special insert map noting a dinghy tour that would be worth doing at mid to high tide. Along the way was Witch Point, which was also designated as a place that had potentially good snorkeling. None of this was mentioned during the chart briefing, and I was starting to form a poor opinion of the briefing staff at Navigare yacthing.

We first attempted to sail for 2 hours, going along at around 2-5 knots. As we headed south the wind was so light that we couldn't come about, so we dropped the sails and turne don the engines. Motoring down along the coast was straightforward, but unlike nearly anywhere else in the Caribbean I've sailed, there were lots of markings on the chart about shallow sands, shifting sands and other no-go zones. Unique amongst the places I'd visited, the cruising guide provided waypoints and markers and photos of harbor entrances so you would get grounded. Under motor this is no big deal, but under sail you would be constantly changing tack.

At  witch point, we dropped anchor. It took us two tries before the anchor caught. Arturo and I did the dive check and discovered that the anchor wasn't dug into the ground, but had caught against a vegetation root instead. It was holding, but no way would I consider it acceptable for an overnight stay. Out of an abundance of caution we decided that either Arturo or I could snorkel but not both --- one of us had to be on the boat at all times in case the anchor gave way and the boat started drifting. We told everyone to be on alert --- if the engine turned on and revved 3 times that means it was time to come back as quickly as possible. We'd turn the engine off immediately and let the anchor reset itself.

Arturo went first to scout the reef. He came back and reported that the snorkeling was disappointing but the folks had spotted turtles. We went, but didn't go very far before the kids complained about being cold. Fortunately, the anchor held throughout our short stay. Once everyone came back aboard we motor'd on to Snake Cay.

Snake Cay looked far more interesting --- at the anchorage there was no one else there, but we could see that there was some sort of ruined piers that were previously there. The anchor easily hooked the bottom at the designated spot, and after the anchor check Arturo and I went to scout the snorkeling along the pier. These were metal pillars that had holes in them that looked like they could give you tetanus. There were no less than 6 lion fish, and plenty to look at. But after we went around the corner in the narrow channel between Snake Cay and Deep Sea Cay, we found no less than 4 cars in the water that had so much fish using them as homes that we immediately knew we had to go back and fetch everyone else.

We would much later discover that even though it looked like a military base of some sort, this used to be the headquarters of a logging operation. Having ran out of wood, the base became abandoned, but we never found anything about why there were cars in the water. Past the cars, the current became strong, so we returned to the boat to prepare a traditional Thanksgiving dinner, with a vegetarian turkey which this time had a snorkel but no mask. Arturo grilled chicken as well as some pasta. It was a huge feast but we did a good job of eating most of it. As the primary fridge freed up we would move food from the bad fridge into it.

At stargazing time, I saw two shooting stars. Bowen read that there were supposed to be meteor showers 2 nights from now. We made a note to be in a dark place that night.


Friday, December 22, 2023

2023 Bahamas: Nov 22 Coco Bay, Green Turtle Cay to Mermaid Reef, Great Abaco Island

 We woke up early again to make the crossing. The seas were calmer, enough so that we thought we could make another crack at Fowl Cay. However, there were a few provisions that we were missing and we needed to re-provision, so we decided to do a put in at Great Guana Cay at Grabbers for lunch. There was much debate as to whether there was a place to reprovision --- Google said that the supermarket was closed, but looking at how crowded the harbor was at Delia’s Cay, I couldn't believe it --- with a restaurant and multiple services there must be some way to buy groceries on the island.  The alternative would have been to visit Treasure Cay but that was a long sail, not to mention I dreaded putting in at a crowded Marina where we would be at risk of mosquitoes. We put in at anchor with 2 other boats watching. I asked one of them whether there were groceries and they said it was an easy walk from Grabbers to the market.

We put in the dinghy and took garbage onto shore, where Grabbers had multiple garbage containers where we could dump garbage without having to pay for it --- unusual in the Carribean where garbage fees could be as high as $10 a bag. We walked over looking for the general store but walked past it until we hit the dive shop, where they directed us back towards the liquor store. Arturo took the opportunity to ask about diving --- Dive Guana's proprietor told us that it would be a custom charter: $1200 for 5 of us for a two tank dive, and he could meet us at Fowl Cay the next day --- today was out of the question as he was already booked. $1200 was way above the normal top end price of $200 for a 2 tank dive, so we declined.








We walked past the general store a second time before being corrected by Katherine who was paying way more attention than I was. At the general store we bought fruits, more diet coke, ice, pumpkin pie for Thanksgiving dinner, and various chocolate that wouldn't last long in the presence of Boen.

Arturo and I would make a quick run to the boat to dump the stuff we bought. We realized that one of the refrigerators onboard didn't work at all, so we'd have to buy another bag of ice. After lunch at grabbers, which had excellent food --- Rosie had highly recommended it and she was not wrong. We bought more ice and reboarded the Katja to motor over to Fowl Cay.

We anchor'd at Fowl Cay, and at the dive check discovered that the anchor was well dug in, but the surge was so violent that it would put Arturo at risk when loading or unloading the dinghy. I made the executive call to not attempt to even unload the dinghy there, but the question was where would we go? I desperately wanted to go Snorkeling and looked in the Cruising guide where Arturo had noted (another case where I hadn't paid enough attention or written sufficiently detailed notes) that Mermaid Reef, which was right outside Marsh Harbor was noted by Rosie as a good spot for snorkeling to visit.

It was a headwind, so we just motor'd there against the wind
, approaching the reef at around 3:30pm. The wind was dying and Arturo's forecast website noted that tomorrow was likely to be a motoring day. After the obligatory anchor check, we swam to the reef, which was marked by a single red dive buoy. It was a long swim, but the reef had sufficient life to justify the visit, and it wasn't too surgey. I even spotted a turtle on the way to the reef, and others spotted Mantas and other wildlife.

We dinghy'd the boys over, but they balked at spending much time at the reef and Boen gave us a hard time about pulling him aboard the dinghy and blistering his lower stomach while doing so.

Dinner once again was Hamburger. With the wind behind us, we expected the location to be bug free but the wind died enough during the evening that mosquitoes and biting gnats visited! We beat a quick retreat after stargazing time to avoid being bitten but it wasn't entirely successful --- Xiaoqin got the worst of it, being much yummier than gnats and mosquitoes than I am.

Thursday, December 21, 2023

Review: Size - How It Explains the World

 Somehow I'd placed Size on my reading list and picked it up. I should stop reading stuff by Vaclav Smil. He covers a bunch of topics that you already know (such as when you scale up a human, bones would break, which is why elephant legs are shaped the way they are), but does so in a boring way, often without humor, and frequently with anti-environmentalist side notes drive-by-shooting style.

Early on in the book, there are actually some interesting titbits. For instance, why do you see so many fat kids?

 many parents underestimate the body size of their children by placing them in a lower—healthy—body mass index category than they actually belong to. Having parents who do not see the problem as even existing makes it more likely that such children will stay overweight or become obese, an undesirable outcome that may last a lifetime.50 And many perfectly normal adolescents and young adults see themselves as too small or too heavy because we compare bodies and faces with internal templates that are increasingly based on images of faces and bodies encountered daily in mass media.51 Not surprisingly, these perceptions shift the norm well below the population-wide mean, and they foster dissatisfaction, particularly among adolescents and young women. (kindle loc 898)

I also how much of this parent under-estimation is because the size and weight chart used by pediatricians don't map very well to non-white people! I expect that these size and weight charts will be updated as obesity becomes more the norm in the USA, where children are ferried around and not allowed to walk to school or bike to school. But does Smil mention that? No.

There's more interesting stuff about airline seat pitches. Which again, have an interesting history:

 in 2017, Flyers Rights, the passenger rights group, petitioned the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to set the rules regarding the minimum pitch, but no regulations came into force before the pandemic—making such efforts moot.37 And the tightening pitch is not the end of it: in 2013, French inventor Bernard Guering filed a patent, on behalf of Airbus, for “a seating device with reduced bulk”—a fancy term for a row of smallish bicycle seats with low backrests mounted on a tube.38 Even worse, in 2010 Ryanair had plans to introduce “vertical seats,” with crammed passengers strapped to thin, near-vertical (an incline of just a few degrees) beds.39 Ryanair even claimed that 2 out of 10 polled passengers said they would fly strapped upright if the fare was halved! And there are also designs aimed at packing in more people by placing seats on top of existing seats (double-decker seating) (kindle loc 1795)

There's a picture of it in the book, but again, no inside story on why the petition failed, what the interaction between passenger packing and fuel utilization is, and how the increasing sizes of passenger girths in the US affect ticket prices. Nope. Smil just blasts through the topic and never returns to it.

There's a section about food needs calculations and an intriguing statement about how they're over-estimated by 10-15 percent in western countries(!!!), but no explanation or even theories about how that overestimation came about (is it because of lifestyle changes? or was there some scientific problems with the methodology used?).

The most boring and useless part of the book comes when Smil devotes 3-4 chapters about normal distributions, power law distributions, and other statistical facts that are better covered in other books. Most of these things have nothing to do with science.

I don't want to say I learned nothing from the book --- there are many interesting parts. But the selection of topics to cover and the lack of depth in coverage leaves me wanting. I feel like he would have been better off dropping the statistics lessons and covering the interesting parts of his book with more depth.


Wednesday, December 20, 2023

2023 Bahamas - Nov 21st: Rat Cay to Coco Bay, Green Turtle Cay

We started the morning by taking the dinghy over to the mangrove forest, but soon ran into a snag. It was really shallow, and we got out by pushing with our feet. After getting back to the boat, I checked the cruising guide and noticed the detail I hadn't noticed the night before --- that the area was only traversable by high tide. We checked the tides and decided not to wait and go to the Manta Ray pier instead. It was too short to sail, so we motor'd over.







There was already another party by the pier, but that was not a bad thing --- we hadn't bought any squid to serve as bait. Marcie once again decided to swim over, but most of the rest of us took the dinghy over, since there was the possibility of hiking over to the Atlantic side, so we brought hiking sandals as well.

Once tied to the Pier, we realized that previous visitors had acclimated the Mantas to human presence, and they would swim over and check us out in case we had food even though we didn't. The mantas enjoyed bumping their heads against our legs and ankles and we shot multiple videos doing so. Niniane, Bowen, and Boen would explore the beach on the sea of Abaco, and discovered that Mantas weren't very efficient feeders --- there was plenty of dead squid that were half eaten and Bowen fished a bunch of them out of the sea and used them to entice/feed the Mantas who would come to visit.

On the shore itself, there were picnic benches, BBQ grills, and even a rope swing, as well as a sign indicating that this was a public park and not to leave litter. From there, it was a short walk to the Atlantic beach which was breath-takingly lonely and deserted. Eager to stretch our legs, we walked along the beach, once in a while seeing a coral remnant left behind by the millennia. This trip completely upended my expectations of the Bahamas as being crowded and full our tourists --- we would discover that nearly every beach we visited we had all to ourselves! I guess not many people choose to sail and travel in the Marsh Harbor area.

Upon our return, we saw another party feeding the Mantas. These parties would dash in on a fast motorboat, spend no more than 15 minutes feeding the Mantas, and then dash off in a hurry. We took our time playing with the Mantas again before returning to the Katja for lunch. We would then motor back to Rat Cay, as now the tide was high enough for us to explore than Mangrove forest. Niniane had a work call, and Marcie decided not to join us. This time, we anchor'd further out as the intention was just to explore the Mangrove forest.

The visit to the Mangrove forest was still exciting even at mid-Tide, but this wasn't bad --- these were opportunities to turn off the motor, raise the outboard, and paddle and listen to the sounds. We would make use of this experience later on in the trip.

When we returned, Niniane's work call was over, and we could put the Dinghy in the davits and motor over to CoCo Bay in  Green Turtle Cay where we would put in for the night in order to make the crossing the next day.


Tuesday, December 19, 2023

2023 Bahamas - Nov 20th Bakers Bay, Great Guana Cay to Rat Cay

We woke up early, made coffee and eggs for breakfast, then proceeded to do the crossing over to Noname Cay. The entrance across channel rock was narrow and not marked at all, so I was grateful for the GPS chart as well as the polarized sunglasses which let me see rocks and reefs more easily. Once back into the Sea of Abaco, we still had a great sand patch to go around before anchoring in Noname Cay's sand patch. I dived for the anchor, and once we were settled, decided that once you're wet you might as well swim to Noname Cay while poor Arturo was stuck deploying the dinghy and shuttling everyone else to shore. Arturo's sister Marcie was an enthusiastic and strong swimmer, and also opted to swim, which helped allay Arturo's anxiety about fitting everyone into the dinghy.








Once on the island, Marcie was immediately greeted by a pig, and as others arrived, the pigs got a lot of attention. They got even more attention when Arturo bought some feed and we started feeding them. The instructions are to drop the food, but in a moment of inattention I fed from my hand and got bitten by teeth. Fortunately, skin wasn't broken and I refrained from feeding pigs after that.

After that, we ate lunch before sailing to the little nook between Nunjack Cay and Crab Cay. There, we anchored near Rat Cay, a little speck of an island (the Bahamas has more than 10,000 Islands, and little specks like these were counted!) Another dive check later, we swam to the shore where there was a dive ball on shore and proceeded to swim to the two wrecks, which had enough fish to be interesting for an afternoon. It was far enough from the boat that the kids weren't expected to swim there, so we drove the dingy over, deployed the dinghy anchor, and then led them to the wrecks. Boen kept having trouble with his snorkel, but we couldn't figure out what was wrong. Fortunately, he remained calm and eventually learned to just clear the snorkel every so often when it flooded.

I looked in the cruising guide and decided that it was worth staying here for the night --- it was a bit late to try to move the boat, and there was potential to explore the mangrove forest in the morning.

Dinner was hot dogs. After stargazing, we went to sleep early once again, still not quite over jet-lag.