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Sunday, July 30, 2006

Movie Review: Big Fish

This is a movie about two men. One, the father, loves stories, the more elaborate the better. The taller the better. No truth should go unvarnished, and no situation too magical to be told. He's the hero of all his stories, of course, and he's a fabulous guy. The other, the son, has heard all of his father's stories. But all these years later he feels like his father has told him nothing about the truth, so he doesn't know his father. He stops talking to his father until his father is on his deathbed, sick with cancer.

This is a story about stories. What do they mean to us? Why do we, as human beings, insist on fiction, which is really one big lie, piled on top of another? What does it say about our self-image? Do storytellers really reach for immortality --- does the story, told and retold pass down the essence of the story? Do we embellish our stories about ourselves? Why do we do so? Is our reality truly so drab that we have to spice up our stories with embellishments?

I love Tim Burton's style in this movie. It reminds me very much of his fable, Edwards Scissorhands. The fantastic parts of the stories are illustrated in lush bright colors, in a beautiful palette that reminds us that we're in a larger than life world. The framing story is filmed in a semi-documentary fashion. The actors are fantastic, and the editing well-done. My only beef with his work is that I think he left the running time a bit longer than necessary to make his point, and I would have ended the movie with the son picking up the phone --- the funeral wasn't really necessary.

All in all, this is a good movie worth watching. Highly recommended.

Saturday, July 29, 2006

Review: The Two Income Trap

Note: The first chapter of The Two Income Trap is available online.

The thesis of this book is that the increasing number of bankruptcy in America isn't due to excessive consumption, but because of excessive spending on important things: houses in good school districts, health insurance, college, and pre-school. The authors assert that for women, having a child at all is a bigger predictor of eventual bankruptcy than all other factors combined.

They point out (quite rightly), that middle income households have stretched themselves to the limit by bidding excessive amounts for houses, thereby ensuring financial disaster if one of them lose their job, for instance, or one of their family has a medical emergency. 87% of bankruptcies have their root causes in either:
  1. Job Loss
  2. Medical problems
  3. Divorce or Separation
Yet the financial media (amongst others) insists it is living beyond your means that creates the problems. By building a profile of an average family in the 1950s and an average family in the 2000s, Warren and Tyagi point out that the average family has spent less on discretionary items: clothing, groceries, fancy vacations and big televisions. Spending on transportation has gone up because both parents work, and more is spent on dining out, but that's made up by the savings brought about by Costco.

Their studies show that the big consumer is that of a house. By buying a big house in the suburbs rather than renting, American households participate in a bidding war for the best schools for their children in a safe location. The result is that it takes most of both incomes to provide for the family, and if a financial disaster happens there is no safety net.

Warren & Tyagi then prescribe a bunch of policy decisions: re-regulating the financial industry so that interest rates are capped, forcing banks and financial institutions to return to the 1950s standards for lending money seems to be their favorite prescription. Given how powerful the financial lobby is, I doubt that this policy will make it very far. The new bankruptcy bill passed last year, for instance, was practically written by the credit card companies.

They give no credence to the concept of universal healthcare, something I find a big pity --- 30% of bankruptcies are caused by medical emergencies. They also tepidly promote universal disability insurance as part of social security. (Note that California has already implemented this --- I've used this feature personally, so I know how useful it is) They also promote school vouchers as a means to de-couple schools from property values so parents aren't trapped by a big mortgage if they want good schools. I'm very skeptical of this proposal, since my guess is that the good schools will have their fees bid up to the same level as that of housing, so it'll all balance out.

Around where I live, there's quite a number of folks who buy houses in good school districts and then send their kids to private school, something I don't quite understand, but Asian parents do have a tendency to want to brag about how much they spend on their kids and can be extremely competitive in this regard.

Warren & Tyagi don't do much in terms of telling you what to do personally about this trap. They do advocate renting for a few additional years if you can't afford to buy right away, which is very sound advice, and to carry disability insurance if your state or your company does not provide, which is very sound advice. (Note that disability insurance is very expensive, precisely because you're more likely to need it than almost any other kind --- one in 3 Americans, for instance, will use the disability insurance feature of social security in their lifetimes --- and the elimination period for that insurance is a year!) Other than that, I guess they tell you not to get divorced.

In any case, The Two Income Trap confirms what I've guessed for awhile: buying a house isn't an investment decision in many parts of the country, it's a consumption decision. Recommended.

Review: A Long Way Down

Nick Hornby's last book, How to Be Good was absolutely hilarious, as was his earlier work, High Fidelity. A long way down starts at the top of Toppers House on New Year's Eve, with a quartet of people who intend to end their life by jumping down: a musician who has lost his purpose, a TV show host whose scandalous past overwhelms his present, a mother for whom her comatose son is too much of a burden for her to bear, and a teenager who's just lost her first lover.

This chance encounter causes them to back off from taking the ultimate leap that night, and the foursome agrees to meet over the next few months and find that they were not ready to commit suicide after all.

While there are a number of funny scenes in the book, Hornby does not quite manage to pull off a successful novel here --- the stories do not quite resolves, and the characters never do reach out to one another in a believable fashion. While this is an entertaining read, it is not one of his best.

Friday, July 28, 2006

The Landis Case: Waiting for the B sample; Pereiro reluctantly poised to take jersey; Landis takes pass on Leno

The Landis Case: Waiting for the B sample; Pereiro reluctantly poised to take jersey; Landis takes pass on Leno

It's quite possible that Landis did take testosterone to boost his performance on stage 17. Professional cycling has had so many drug scandals in recent years that nothing can disappoint me anymore.

I have to say though, that perhaps it's simply because medical science hasn't done as much for boosting brain performance as it has on performance of the body that drugs aren't a common part of the workplace. Imagine, if you will, a drug that gave you a mental boost equivalent to that of anabolic steriods. One dose, and you could do 200 hour programming projects in 2 hours (Pengtoh and I once turned a 200 hour project into a 20 hour project by doing pair programming, so another order of magnitude isn't inconceivable). Would you, as a good programmer, take it if it meant widespread recognition, promotion, and millions of dollars? What if the drug cost you a year of your life? Or two years?

Imagine this scenario: everyone in your office is taking drugs. You're barely smart enough to hang on to your job, let alone get a promotion. You know the next bright kid who takes this mental enhancement drug (even at horrendous cost to his health) will be so smart that you won't have a prayer of hanging on to your current job. Would you continue to stay drug free? Would you find another career, even if this was the one you loved?

It's questions like this that convince me that perhaps I couldn't be that judgemental about the professionals who do performance enhancing drugs.

Thursday, July 27, 2006

Another lameness about the Mac Mini

My brother and I tried to setup skype on my Mac Mini. The software installs fine, but the stupid mike wouldn't work. After swapping microphone headsets we discovered that the Mac Mini doesn't have microphone input, so I have to either get a bluetooth headset or a USB microphone (as though I didn't have enough devices hanging off the USB ports, which are all maxed out now). My brother also complains that his MacBook Pro randomly shuts down.

I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that Apple makes cool looking products with reliability problems that just aren't practical to use. No wonder they have only a 5% market share. Lisa's $900 laptop works better than a MacBook costing $2000!

Wednesday, July 26, 2006

Morning Ride up Montebello Road and Black Mountain

Mark Logan and John Walker joined Matt Stanton and I at the base of Montebello Road. The climb was in the sun and quite warm, so by the time we reached the top (with me begging John to slow down despite his 39x26 and a backpack with a 6 pound laptop) we had drained most of our water. The view from the top was gorgeous --- a line of clouds (a low marine layer) all the way to the North East (towards Diablo and Hamilton) and the same layer all the way to the West where the ocean was. The fire road gave us glorious views of the panorama and we made it to the pavement on Page Mill where we refilled our water bottles.

The descent on Page Mill was beautiful, and right at the cloud line we saw the temperature drop a whole 10 degrees. We hit every red light from Arastedero to B43, forcing us to do interval sprints the whole way, but we made it for breakfast!

Review: The Hallowed Hunt

If The Paladin of Souls was a disappointment, the Hallowed Hunt make up for it. In contrast to the nervous nellie that Ista was, the lead character in the Hallowed Hunt, Ingrey is a special agent to the Hallowed King, sent to followup on the murder of a Prince of the land. The case of the murder is straightforward, but Ingrey finds himself caught up with the murderess, Iijada, for she bears an animal spirit as a consequence of the murder of the prince.

What are animal spirits, how do they interact with the five Gods of Challion, and what role Ingrey plays (a role which is not made clear to Ingrey for significant periods of time), and how he comes to acknowledge his heritage and his history makes up the subject matter of the book.

Both Ingrey and Iijada are very sympathetic characters, who are intelligent people caught up in an impossible situation. Too much of the book goes into the peculiar theology of Challion, but that's forgivable --- it seems that Bujold has invested way too much in the world building not to let a bit of it peek out.

All in all, a satisfying and fun read.

Monday, July 24, 2006

Mike Samuel tries the recumbent

But it was clearly too small for him. Posted by Picasa

Matt tries a recumbent.

 Posted by Picasa

Lisa tries a recumbent

 Posted by Picasa

Cyclists descend Hwy 84 to La Honda

In the picture: Matt Stanton, Laura Granka, Sy Na, Matt Blain, Mike Samuel, Katelyn Mann on 84 Posted by Picasa

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Luck plays a major role in success

As I've stated often before, too many people confuse luck with skill or being smart. Hal Varian (link above) and Brad Delong both provide examples where this is the case. In my career, I've seen alot of hardworking, talented people in unsuccessful companies, and untalented lazy people in successful companies. The latter always did better than the former, hence the phrase quoted to me by a stock broker, "I'd rather be lucky than good."

If you believe that luck plays a major part in our success or failure, then you'd want progressive taxation --- let the lucky subsidize the unlucky. And you'll soon learn to respect wealth come about by selling companies during a dotcom boom less than personal success that's achieved by a means less amenable to luck (e.g., finishing a marathon, or completing a long trek). If you think about man in his natural state, the last two are rarely instances of pure luck, which is why we over-emphasize monetary success in the modern world and under-estimate the importance of luck.

Review: Trinity: Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman

Matt Wagner was known to me mostly through his autobiographical work, The Hero Discovered. While Wagner is a decent artist and a decent writer, it was his use of symbols and links to the Arthurian Mythos in his autobiography that attracted me to his work. So when I saw this book at the library I had to pick it up to see his interpretation of the classic DC Superheroes.

The plot revolves around Ra's Al Ghul's manipulation of Bizarro and Artemis for an invasion of Paradise Island. Intended to showcase our heroes at the beginning of their careers, this book shows Batman's first encounter with Wonder Woman. Their initial interaction is testy and perhaps overly simplified --- one wonders how Paradise Island held its secret for so long if so many villains and heroes got to visit it (and presumably get GPS coordinates). These conceits get tougher and tougher to accept as the world become more global.

And of couse, Wonder Woman penetrates Bruce Wayne's disguise in a hurry, making you wonder if Gotham City's super-villains were just darn stupid or what. This is a world where Superman putting on glasses and pretending to be late for the train three times a week for appearances is enough to prevent folks from recognizing that Clark Kent is Superman, yet Wonder Woman penetrates Batman's secret identity right away.

I did find the portrayal of Superman's interaction with Bruce Wayne very interesting. He loves his surprises, reflects Superman, as if I couldn't see the submarine following us.

All in all, a good comic, but nothing great, and certainly nothing like Wagner's prior work.

Monday, July 17, 2006

"Why Conservatives Can't Govern" by Alan Wolfe

"Why Conservatives Can't Govern" by Alan Wolfe: "not much evidence exists in America today that conservatives are prepared to move in such a direction. If anything, they seem to have reinforced and strengthened their determination to govern as incompetently and unfairly as they can. The fact that they will leave behind a public sector in roughly the same condition that strip miners leave hillsides would cause nothing but pain to yesterday's patricians, for whom ideals such as responsibility and soundness were watchwords. But today's conservatives have no problem passing on the costs of their present madness to future generations. Governing well would require them to use the bully-pulpit of office to educate and uplift their base. But since contemporary conservatives get their political energy from angry voices of rage and revenge, they will always blame others for the failures built into their ideology. That is why conservatism so rarely makes for a good governance party. As far as conservatives are concerned, it is always someone else's government, one reason they can be so indifferent to their own mismanagement."

Thanks to David Brin for the pointer.

Sunday, July 16, 2006

Movie Review: Who Killed the Electric Car?

This movie succeeds as propaganda. It explores the rise of the zero-emissions mandate in California, followed by its successful dismantling by corporate lobbyists and a compliant California Air Resources Board. The truth is, though, the GM EV1 and its cohorts weren't going to be successful. If you were to buy an only car, you wouldn't buy one with a limit 100 mile range unless there was infrastructure to permit refueling (maybe battery swap stations? but the logistics behind that would have been tough).

Lest I sound like a Republican right-winger, I'll remind readers of this blog that I log about 8000 miles a year on my bicycle, 4000 for commuting alone, so I'm as rabid an environmentalist as they come. But precisely because a range of 100 miles isn't better than what I can do on a bicycle, the only reason I'd ever get in a car was because I needed to go far in a short time.

The gasoline-electric hybrid is a much better idea, and the plug-in hybrid an even better one. But the pure electric car wasn't going to happen unless battery technology got dramatically better (which it hasn't --- battery technology has been getting better linearly, not exponentially), and there was infrastructure to support it.

In any case, this is not a bad movie --- it accomplishes what it sets out to do, which is to insinuate a conspiracy theory around the dismantling of the electric car programs. Unfortunately, any amount of deep thinking by a typical consumer would show that the conspiracies it insinuates cannot possibly be true.

Ultimately, our transportation problems would be much better solved by building a robust and comprehensive passenger rail system than by trying to tinker with the private automobile, but I guess that won't happen until gas gets to $200 a barrel and beyond.

Movie Review: Aeon Flux

Beautiful woman kicks ass sums up this forgettable "science fiction" movie. The premise is weak, the characters never developed, not even through the admittedly beautfully choreographed action sequences, and the ending makes a hash out of everything that has come before (i.e., were we really fighting for no reason whatsoever) and leaves many plot points unresolved. Ultimately, beautiful eye candy but an unsatisfying movie.

Larry Summers Visits Google

Interesting titbit: Sheryl Sandberg, Google's VP of International Sales and Operations, used to be Larry Summer's Chief of Staff, when he worked for the Clinton administration.

The talk itself is the usual globalization talk you can get from anyone who's a serious thinker (Robert Reich, Brad Delong, etc). He kept it short and relatively free of long words and jargon, but it was the questions that were interesting.

Interesting quotes:

Q: There is now a shortage of men in higher education compared to women. Do you have any idea what to do about it?
A: I've learned over the years never to take the last question... It is a tribute to Google that maybe here, I shouldn't even take the first. I don't believe the shortage of men is due to social discrimination...

Q: Given the neither parties have historically enacted policies to protect citizens from the negative impact of globalization, how long do you expect there to still be support for free trade among the populance? It seems to me that support is steadily eroding for free trade.
A: Free trade is one of those things that's tough to sell. Here's an example. Let's say you're a mediocre performer in a mediocre company, but because of free trade your company's sales go through the roof and you get a promotion. Do you say, "Thank god for free trade, so I got my promotion!"? But let's say because of foreign competition your company has to shut down and you lose your job. Now you know who to blame! So we internalize our success, and externalize our failures. But the tone of your question is the right one --- in the long term, we're going to have to provide mitigation like wage insurance if there's going to be any hope at all of keeping public support for free trade.

Movie Review: American Splendor

I'm not a big fan of Robert Crump, or the underground comic book scene in general, so I came to this movie as a complete outsider. As I watched the movie to figure out what the appeal of Harvey Pekar was, I realized that he was essentially the first person to turn the comic book medium into an expression of himself, i.e., he wrote the first comic book blog. Eternally surly, angry, and not very likeable, he nevertheless manages to say profound things and survive cancer in his own way.

Pekar himself appears in this extremely self-aware movie (Pekar is shown in a movie studio narrating the voice-overs in the movie), which makes Pekar's general unlikeability very palatable --- here is someone who's a prick, but knows he's one, and somehow that makes it OK. This is not the greatest movie I've seen, but I'm glad I gave it a shot --- it surprised me how good it is.

I bet I'll have a hard time reading American Splendor, though.

Book Review: The Paladin of Souls

The sequel to The Curse of Chalion, this book deals with the Dowager Ista, a minor character in that book who was deemed insane by her family and care-takers. Having decided that she'd had enough of being hemmed in, she decides to take off on a pilgrimmage, selecting a motley group of associates and followers. On the way, she encounters demons and an invading body of warriors. She then unravels the mystery of a border keep, finds her true love, and repels the invasion all in the space of days, while recovering her sanity and self confidence.

Ista isn't nearly as interesting a character as Cazaril, and none of the other major characters in the previous novel make an appearance here. The writing is good, but the book isn't nearly as tightly plotted. As a study in a character returning from depression and loss, Ista has too many Deus Ex Machina working in her favor for me to think her a particularly strong person. Nevertheless, the book was compelling and not a complete waste of time. It's not nearly as good as its predecessor, however.

Saturday, July 15, 2006

Book Review: The Undercover Economist

This is a great book, and it actually lives up to its subtitle:Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, Why the Poor Are Poor--And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car! Tim Harford explains a lot of phenomenon through the tools and lenses provided by modern Economics, and covers the main ideas behind the phenomena very well. He has an excellent but brief explanation of adverse selection, for instance, and why it makes it difficult for a fully private health insurance system to work well. Unlike many other authors who leave it at that, he explores a solution (Singapore's) that appears to work well and shows how successful you can be if you are willing to set aside ideology and adopt an engineering approach towards economic problems. (Not that Singapore's solution can be successful in the U.S. politically, but the ideas are worth considering at the very least)

If you don't know much about economics, this is a great book to read. In the process of pondering the phenomena Harford covers (and he covers them much better than any New York Times journalist ever will), you will learn a lot of economics. If you are an economics junkie like me, you're going to enjoy this book, even more so than Freakonomics. It truly is well-written, entertaining, and accurate. I have no fault to find with this book.