But it was clearly too small for him. 
Monday, July 24, 2006
Cyclists descend Hwy 84 to La Honda
In the picture: Matt Stanton, Laura Granka, Sy Na, Matt Blain, Mike Samuel, Katelyn Mann on 84
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
Luck plays a major role in success
As I've stated often before, too many people confuse luck with skill or being smart. Hal Varian (link above) and Brad Delong both provide examples where this is the case. In my career, I've seen alot of hardworking, talented people in unsuccessful companies, and untalented lazy people in successful companies. The latter always did better than the former, hence the phrase quoted to me by a stock broker, "I'd rather be lucky than good."
If you believe that luck plays a major part in our success or failure, then you'd want progressive taxation --- let the lucky subsidize the unlucky. And you'll soon learn to respect wealth come about by selling companies during a dotcom boom less than personal success that's achieved by a means less amenable to luck (e.g., finishing a marathon, or completing a long trek). If you think about man in his natural state, the last two are rarely instances of pure luck, which is why we over-emphasize monetary success in the modern world and under-estimate the importance of luck.
If you believe that luck plays a major part in our success or failure, then you'd want progressive taxation --- let the lucky subsidize the unlucky. And you'll soon learn to respect wealth come about by selling companies during a dotcom boom less than personal success that's achieved by a means less amenable to luck (e.g., finishing a marathon, or completing a long trek). If you think about man in his natural state, the last two are rarely instances of pure luck, which is why we over-emphasize monetary success in the modern world and under-estimate the importance of luck.
Review: Trinity: Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman
Matt Wagner was known to me mostly through his autobiographical work, The Hero Discovered. While Wagner is a decent artist and a decent writer, it was his use of symbols and links to the Arthurian Mythos in his autobiography that attracted me to his work. So when I saw this book at the library I had to pick it up to see his interpretation of the classic DC Superheroes.
The plot revolves around Ra's Al Ghul's manipulation of Bizarro and Artemis for an invasion of Paradise Island. Intended to showcase our heroes at the beginning of their careers, this book shows Batman's first encounter with Wonder Woman. Their initial interaction is testy and perhaps overly simplified --- one wonders how Paradise Island held its secret for so long if so many villains and heroes got to visit it (and presumably get GPS coordinates). These conceits get tougher and tougher to accept as the world become more global.
And of couse, Wonder Woman penetrates Bruce Wayne's disguise in a hurry, making you wonder if Gotham City's super-villains were just darn stupid or what. This is a world where Superman putting on glasses and pretending to be late for the train three times a week for appearances is enough to prevent folks from recognizing that Clark Kent is Superman, yet Wonder Woman penetrates Batman's secret identity right away.
I did find the portrayal of Superman's interaction with Bruce Wayne very interesting. He loves his surprises, reflects Superman, as if I couldn't see the submarine following us.
All in all, a good comic, but nothing great, and certainly nothing like Wagner's prior work.
The plot revolves around Ra's Al Ghul's manipulation of Bizarro and Artemis for an invasion of Paradise Island. Intended to showcase our heroes at the beginning of their careers, this book shows Batman's first encounter with Wonder Woman. Their initial interaction is testy and perhaps overly simplified --- one wonders how Paradise Island held its secret for so long if so many villains and heroes got to visit it (and presumably get GPS coordinates). These conceits get tougher and tougher to accept as the world become more global.
And of couse, Wonder Woman penetrates Bruce Wayne's disguise in a hurry, making you wonder if Gotham City's super-villains were just darn stupid or what. This is a world where Superman putting on glasses and pretending to be late for the train three times a week for appearances is enough to prevent folks from recognizing that Clark Kent is Superman, yet Wonder Woman penetrates Batman's secret identity right away.
I did find the portrayal of Superman's interaction with Bruce Wayne very interesting. He loves his surprises, reflects Superman, as if I couldn't see the submarine following us.
All in all, a good comic, but nothing great, and certainly nothing like Wagner's prior work.
Monday, July 17, 2006
"Why Conservatives Can't Govern" by Alan Wolfe
"Why Conservatives Can't Govern" by Alan Wolfe: "not much evidence exists in America today that conservatives are prepared to move in such a direction. If anything, they seem to have reinforced and strengthened their determination to govern as incompetently and unfairly as they can. The fact that they will leave behind a public sector in roughly the same condition that strip miners leave hillsides would cause nothing but pain to yesterday's patricians, for whom ideals such as responsibility and soundness were watchwords. But today's conservatives have no problem passing on the costs of their present madness to future generations. Governing well would require them to use the bully-pulpit of office to educate and uplift their base. But since contemporary conservatives get their political energy from angry voices of rage and revenge, they will always blame others for the failures built into their ideology. That is why conservatism so rarely makes for a good governance party. As far as conservatives are concerned, it is always someone else's government, one reason they can be so indifferent to their own mismanagement."
Thanks to David Brin for the pointer.
Thanks to David Brin for the pointer.
Sunday, July 16, 2006
Movie Review: Who Killed the Electric Car?
This movie succeeds as propaganda. It explores the rise of the zero-emissions mandate in California, followed by its successful dismantling by corporate lobbyists and a compliant California Air Resources Board. The truth is, though, the GM EV1 and its cohorts weren't going to be successful. If you were to buy an only car, you wouldn't buy one with a limit 100 mile range unless there was infrastructure to permit refueling (maybe battery swap stations? but the logistics behind that would have been tough).
Lest I sound like a Republican right-winger, I'll remind readers of this blog that I log about 8000 miles a year on my bicycle, 4000 for commuting alone, so I'm as rabid an environmentalist as they come. But precisely because a range of 100 miles isn't better than what I can do on a bicycle, the only reason I'd ever get in a car was because I needed to go far in a short time.
The gasoline-electric hybrid is a much better idea, and the plug-in hybrid an even better one. But the pure electric car wasn't going to happen unless battery technology got dramatically better (which it hasn't --- battery technology has been getting better linearly, not exponentially), and there was infrastructure to support it.
In any case, this is not a bad movie --- it accomplishes what it sets out to do, which is to insinuate a conspiracy theory around the dismantling of the electric car programs. Unfortunately, any amount of deep thinking by a typical consumer would show that the conspiracies it insinuates cannot possibly be true.
Ultimately, our transportation problems would be much better solved by building a robust and comprehensive passenger rail system than by trying to tinker with the private automobile, but I guess that won't happen until gas gets to $200 a barrel and beyond.
Lest I sound like a Republican right-winger, I'll remind readers of this blog that I log about 8000 miles a year on my bicycle, 4000 for commuting alone, so I'm as rabid an environmentalist as they come. But precisely because a range of 100 miles isn't better than what I can do on a bicycle, the only reason I'd ever get in a car was because I needed to go far in a short time.
The gasoline-electric hybrid is a much better idea, and the plug-in hybrid an even better one. But the pure electric car wasn't going to happen unless battery technology got dramatically better (which it hasn't --- battery technology has been getting better linearly, not exponentially), and there was infrastructure to support it.
In any case, this is not a bad movie --- it accomplishes what it sets out to do, which is to insinuate a conspiracy theory around the dismantling of the electric car programs. Unfortunately, any amount of deep thinking by a typical consumer would show that the conspiracies it insinuates cannot possibly be true.
Ultimately, our transportation problems would be much better solved by building a robust and comprehensive passenger rail system than by trying to tinker with the private automobile, but I guess that won't happen until gas gets to $200 a barrel and beyond.
Movie Review: Aeon Flux
Beautiful woman kicks ass sums up this forgettable "science fiction" movie. The premise is weak, the characters never developed, not even through the admittedly beautfully choreographed action sequences, and the ending makes a hash out of everything that has come before (i.e., were we really fighting for no reason whatsoever) and leaves many plot points unresolved. Ultimately, beautiful eye candy but an unsatisfying movie.
Larry Summers Visits Google
Interesting titbit: Sheryl Sandberg, Google's VP of International Sales and Operations, used to be Larry Summer's Chief of Staff, when he worked for the Clinton administration.
The talk itself is the usual globalization talk you can get from anyone who's a serious thinker (Robert Reich, Brad Delong, etc). He kept it short and relatively free of long words and jargon, but it was the questions that were interesting.
Interesting quotes:
Q: There is now a shortage of men in higher education compared to women. Do you have any idea what to do about it?
A: I've learned over the years never to take the last question... It is a tribute to Google that maybe here, I shouldn't even take the first. I don't believe the shortage of men is due to social discrimination...
Q: Given the neither parties have historically enacted policies to protect citizens from the negative impact of globalization, how long do you expect there to still be support for free trade among the populance? It seems to me that support is steadily eroding for free trade.
A: Free trade is one of those things that's tough to sell. Here's an example. Let's say you're a mediocre performer in a mediocre company, but because of free trade your company's sales go through the roof and you get a promotion. Do you say, "Thank god for free trade, so I got my promotion!"? But let's say because of foreign competition your company has to shut down and you lose your job. Now you know who to blame! So we internalize our success, and externalize our failures. But the tone of your question is the right one --- in the long term, we're going to have to provide mitigation like wage insurance if there's going to be any hope at all of keeping public support for free trade.
The talk itself is the usual globalization talk you can get from anyone who's a serious thinker (Robert Reich, Brad Delong, etc). He kept it short and relatively free of long words and jargon, but it was the questions that were interesting.
Interesting quotes:
Q: There is now a shortage of men in higher education compared to women. Do you have any idea what to do about it?
A: I've learned over the years never to take the last question... It is a tribute to Google that maybe here, I shouldn't even take the first. I don't believe the shortage of men is due to social discrimination...
Q: Given the neither parties have historically enacted policies to protect citizens from the negative impact of globalization, how long do you expect there to still be support for free trade among the populance? It seems to me that support is steadily eroding for free trade.
A: Free trade is one of those things that's tough to sell. Here's an example. Let's say you're a mediocre performer in a mediocre company, but because of free trade your company's sales go through the roof and you get a promotion. Do you say, "Thank god for free trade, so I got my promotion!"? But let's say because of foreign competition your company has to shut down and you lose your job. Now you know who to blame! So we internalize our success, and externalize our failures. But the tone of your question is the right one --- in the long term, we're going to have to provide mitigation like wage insurance if there's going to be any hope at all of keeping public support for free trade.
Movie Review: American Splendor
I'm not a big fan of Robert Crump, or the underground comic book scene in general, so I came to this movie as a complete outsider. As I watched the movie to figure out what the appeal of Harvey Pekar was, I realized that he was essentially the first person to turn the comic book medium into an expression of himself, i.e., he wrote the first comic book blog. Eternally surly, angry, and not very likeable, he nevertheless manages to say profound things and survive cancer in his own way.
Pekar himself appears in this extremely self-aware movie (Pekar is shown in a movie studio narrating the voice-overs in the movie), which makes Pekar's general unlikeability very palatable --- here is someone who's a prick, but knows he's one, and somehow that makes it OK. This is not the greatest movie I've seen, but I'm glad I gave it a shot --- it surprised me how good it is.
I bet I'll have a hard time reading American Splendor, though.
Pekar himself appears in this extremely self-aware movie (Pekar is shown in a movie studio narrating the voice-overs in the movie), which makes Pekar's general unlikeability very palatable --- here is someone who's a prick, but knows he's one, and somehow that makes it OK. This is not the greatest movie I've seen, but I'm glad I gave it a shot --- it surprised me how good it is.
I bet I'll have a hard time reading American Splendor, though.
Book Review: The Paladin of Souls
The sequel to The Curse of Chalion, this book deals with the Dowager Ista, a minor character in that book who was deemed insane by her family and care-takers. Having decided that she'd had enough of being hemmed in, she decides to take off on a pilgrimmage, selecting a motley group of associates and followers. On the way, she encounters demons and an invading body of warriors. She then unravels the mystery of a border keep, finds her true love, and repels the invasion all in the space of days, while recovering her sanity and self confidence.
Ista isn't nearly as interesting a character as Cazaril, and none of the other major characters in the previous novel make an appearance here. The writing is good, but the book isn't nearly as tightly plotted. As a study in a character returning from depression and loss, Ista has too many Deus Ex Machina working in her favor for me to think her a particularly strong person. Nevertheless, the book was compelling and not a complete waste of time. It's not nearly as good as its predecessor, however.
Ista isn't nearly as interesting a character as Cazaril, and none of the other major characters in the previous novel make an appearance here. The writing is good, but the book isn't nearly as tightly plotted. As a study in a character returning from depression and loss, Ista has too many Deus Ex Machina working in her favor for me to think her a particularly strong person. Nevertheless, the book was compelling and not a complete waste of time. It's not nearly as good as its predecessor, however.
Saturday, July 15, 2006
Book Review: The Undercover Economist
This is a great book, and it actually lives up to its subtitle:Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, Why the Poor Are Poor--And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car! Tim Harford explains a lot of phenomenon through the tools and lenses provided by modern Economics, and covers the main ideas behind the phenomena very well. He has an excellent but brief explanation of adverse selection, for instance, and why it makes it difficult for a fully private health insurance system to work well. Unlike many other authors who leave it at that, he explores a solution (Singapore's) that appears to work well and shows how successful you can be if you are willing to set aside ideology and adopt an engineering approach towards economic problems. (Not that Singapore's solution can be successful in the U.S. politically, but the ideas are worth considering at the very least)
If you don't know much about economics, this is a great book to read. In the process of pondering the phenomena Harford covers (and he covers them much better than any New York Times journalist ever will), you will learn a lot of economics. If you are an economics junkie like me, you're going to enjoy this book, even more so than Freakonomics. It truly is well-written, entertaining, and accurate. I have no fault to find with this book.
If you don't know much about economics, this is a great book to read. In the process of pondering the phenomena Harford covers (and he covers them much better than any New York Times journalist ever will), you will learn a lot of economics. If you are an economics junkie like me, you're going to enjoy this book, even more so than Freakonomics. It truly is well-written, entertaining, and accurate. I have no fault to find with this book.
Book Review: The Developers
Ellen Spertus came across this book and gave it to me since I was in a slow period, and she claimed that the book was too cynical for her. Since I'm a cynical kind of person, I thought I'd be the perfect target audience for this book.
To my chagrin, I found that the problem wasn't cynicism, but perhaps one of generation gap. I think I must have missed all the cultural references in this book, not being born in this country nor a big watcher of television. But I'm a programmer, right? So the stuff about development should be interesting to me, right?
Unfortunately, the application in question was a city-search type application with lots of UI, and boring bulletin board, chat, and personals application for a small town. It's not even a challenge for undergraduates to build, so it's hard for me to suspend my disbelief and think that an interesting startup could be built around it. The characters themselves were unappealing: most of them seem incredibly obsessed with dating and their sex life. I guess I can believe that in a dot com startup (though I've been at two dot com startups, and it certainly wasn't the case that there was a ton of dating at work) that's staffed mostly with fresh graduates. Then again, the startups I've worked at in Silicon Valley tended to be staffed with experienced people for whom work was their main obsession.
Ultimately, I cannot recommend this book unless you're a hip young developer of the sort depicted in the book. Then again, since I've never been one of those either, even if you were a hip young developer of the sort depicted in the book, my guess is that you wouldn't take book recommendations from an old fogey like me.
To my chagrin, I found that the problem wasn't cynicism, but perhaps one of generation gap. I think I must have missed all the cultural references in this book, not being born in this country nor a big watcher of television. But I'm a programmer, right? So the stuff about development should be interesting to me, right?
Unfortunately, the application in question was a city-search type application with lots of UI, and boring bulletin board, chat, and personals application for a small town. It's not even a challenge for undergraduates to build, so it's hard for me to suspend my disbelief and think that an interesting startup could be built around it. The characters themselves were unappealing: most of them seem incredibly obsessed with dating and their sex life. I guess I can believe that in a dot com startup (though I've been at two dot com startups, and it certainly wasn't the case that there was a ton of dating at work) that's staffed mostly with fresh graduates. Then again, the startups I've worked at in Silicon Valley tended to be staffed with experienced people for whom work was their main obsession.
Ultimately, I cannot recommend this book unless you're a hip young developer of the sort depicted in the book. Then again, since I've never been one of those either, even if you were a hip young developer of the sort depicted in the book, my guess is that you wouldn't take book recommendations from an old fogey like me.
Book Review: The Curse of Chalion
Lois McMaster Bujold, of course, is the author of the Miles Vorkosigan series, a character-driven science fiction series about a dimunitive but incredibly bright member of the Barraya clan. Her Vorkosigan series are definitely brain candy of the type that you can't possibly put down even if you wanted to.
Here, Bujold ventures into the realm of fantasy writing and her character-driven approach is even more appropriate her than it is for science fiction.
Cazaril is a broken man: a former military general who was betrayed and sold into slavery, he barely escaped with his life and walked back to the province where he was raised to ask for a position, any position. He does not seek revenge for his betrayal; he is just hoping to stay clear of court politics. To his chagrin, he is given the job of tutoring the young princess Iselle, who is hot-headed and righteous. When the princess is recalled to the capital along with her brother the heir apparent, Cazaril is drawn back to the politics he was trying to avoid, and finds himself embroiled in affairs of state that turn out to be far darker and sinister than the mere betrayal of his trust.
The novel is a great page-turner after the first section, as history, theology, and the motivations of all the characters are teased and weaved together tightly. Then as the big reveal (what is the Curse of Chalion) happens, the reader is challenged to see if he can unravel the plot before it becomes obvious. To my satisfaction, the apparent red herring turns out to be an essential clue, and though the ending is somewhat obvious, it was not a giveaway. (There was a gratituous happy ending that was obvious to anyone --- Bujold obviously loves Cazaril, that much is obvious)
The criticisms: the lead character is just a bit too perfect. A tutor who used to be a page, a fighting man, and a military general who now has no ambitions of his own, Cazaril is just a little too self-sacrificing to be truly believable. The classic scene comes when he bargains with the leader of a foreign land --- when offered gifts and bribes, he turns them all away, saying that he's got a tumor in his stomach and is going to die anyway, so the bribes are worth nothing to him.
Nevetheless, a good read, one of the best of the year.
Here, Bujold ventures into the realm of fantasy writing and her character-driven approach is even more appropriate her than it is for science fiction.
Cazaril is a broken man: a former military general who was betrayed and sold into slavery, he barely escaped with his life and walked back to the province where he was raised to ask for a position, any position. He does not seek revenge for his betrayal; he is just hoping to stay clear of court politics. To his chagrin, he is given the job of tutoring the young princess Iselle, who is hot-headed and righteous. When the princess is recalled to the capital along with her brother the heir apparent, Cazaril is drawn back to the politics he was trying to avoid, and finds himself embroiled in affairs of state that turn out to be far darker and sinister than the mere betrayal of his trust.
The novel is a great page-turner after the first section, as history, theology, and the motivations of all the characters are teased and weaved together tightly. Then as the big reveal (what is the Curse of Chalion) happens, the reader is challenged to see if he can unravel the plot before it becomes obvious. To my satisfaction, the apparent red herring turns out to be an essential clue, and though the ending is somewhat obvious, it was not a giveaway. (There was a gratituous happy ending that was obvious to anyone --- Bujold obviously loves Cazaril, that much is obvious)
The criticisms: the lead character is just a bit too perfect. A tutor who used to be a page, a fighting man, and a military general who now has no ambitions of his own, Cazaril is just a little too self-sacrificing to be truly believable. The classic scene comes when he bargains with the leader of a foreign land --- when offered gifts and bribes, he turns them all away, saying that he's got a tumor in his stomach and is going to die anyway, so the bribes are worth nothing to him.
Nevetheless, a good read, one of the best of the year.
Katelyn approaching the On Orbit intersection
Katelyn bought her bike from Terry Shaw last Saturday, so she had to see how it climbed today.
At the Intersection Bohlman Road and On Orbit
This ride was 42 miles and about 4450' of climbing. Brian said, "It's expanded my horizon on what steep means."
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Pharyngula: Noted without comment
Why I no longer read the New York Times. Scarlet probably still thinks I'm arrogant for thinking the Journalism or English majors have no place trying to interpret the complex world we live in for the intelligensia (the others don't read newspapers), but that someone who wrote this gets a promotion makes a mockery out of science:
I don't consider myself a creationist. I don't have any interest in sharing my personal views on how the canyon was carved, mostly because I've spent almost no time pondering my personal views -- it takes all my energy as a reporter and writer to understand and explain my subjects' views fairly and thoroughly.
I don't consider myself a creationist. I don't have any interest in sharing my personal views on how the canyon was carved, mostly because I've spent almost no time pondering my personal views -- it takes all my energy as a reporter and writer to understand and explain my subjects' views fairly and thoroughly.
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