Pictures: Virgin Islands Trip

Virgin Islands Trip 2007-2008

Virgin Islands (Edited)

The main album is the album that has all the pictures that might be of interest to the crew of Rya Jen. Unlike the other albums, it's not fully edited. Basically, anything that has a picture of someone on the boat will be in this album. I'll keep updating the album with captions, etc., as time permits. The edited album is the fully edited version, without regards for people, etc.

Prologue, Dec 22nd-23rd, 2007

On Dec 22nd, 2007, Lisa and I flew to St. Croix for Dive training, followed by a sailing tour of the Virgin Islands. Our flight took a particularly circuitous route, going from San Francisco to Los Angeles to catch a red-eye to Washington DC, followed by a flight to San Thomas, whereupon we caught a Cape Air shuttle to St. Croix. All the United Airlines flights were more or less on time, making this an unusually stress-free and easy trip, given my experiences over the summer with US Airways.

The shuttle to St. Croix was an adventure, however. We checked in well ahead of time, and walked through the TSA area with its security scanning us an our luggage not through an X-ray machine, but the old-fashioned way, but taking our luggage apart, and then running the bomb scanner chits over it and analyzing it. This naturally took a long time, but the indoctrination into island culture was to come later, when we sat in the waiting area after our inspection long after the flight was to depart. After a while, a flight agent from Cape Air showed up and asked for our receipts, and then told us that there were 4 others on the flight who were late and we had to wait for them, because we couldn't possibly leave them behind.

Eventually, everyone showed up and the flight agent guided us to our twin propeller plane, but not before she gave a hug to a child and a short chat with them. Her relaxed demeanor told us that we were definitely "on island time."

The Cessna 402 was tiny, and our carry-on had to be carried into the back of the plane and stowed before we could board. There was also a little compartment on the wing where we could put little sundries. Then we boarded the plane and took seats behind the pilot. The pilot said to us, "Come up front, I have to fill this seat anyway." So I took the seat and got a lovely front-row view of the instrument panel. The air was warm and the weather balmy. As we taxi'd around to the runway, the pilot asked me to close the little window to my right. The plane took off in short order and I marveled at the lovely view of Charlotte Amelie harbor, and the view of the Ocean.

The flight took only 20 minutes, and after we arrived, we walked along the terminal and caught a taxi to Hotel on the Cay in Christiansted. The taxi driver told us that the island had only 50000 people, and that this was the rainy season. We were dropped off along the water. I stood there, surprised for a while, and then realized that the Hotel is indeed on the Cay (pronounced Key, as in the Florida Keys), and had a ferry service to pick us up. We checked in and found ourselves on the top floor with a view of the seaward channel towards St. Thomas.

Fighting jet-lag and temperature shock, we got ourselves unpacked and headed back downtown to visit the Dive shop we were signed up with --- Dive Experience. Following the map that was given us by the hotel, we wandered down and soon found it. There we were told to show up at 8:30 the next morning for our confined water work.

Dinner was at Rum Runners, an expensive restaurant on the waterfront, but we were both tired and not inclined to look further. After dinner, the taxi-ferry took us back to the hotel under a full moon, shining clear and pretty over the water. We admired that for a very short time until we headed to bed.

Index to the Virgin Islands Trip

From December 23rd, 2007 to January 5th, 2008, Lisa and I went to the Virgin Islands for a diving and sailing trip. We traveled 135 miles by boat, flew by seaplane, and I did 10 dives while Lisa did 9.

• Hector's Travelogue
• Hector's photographs
• Heather's photographs
  

• Prologue
• Day 1: Christmas Eve
• Day 2: Christmas Day
• Day 3: 26th December, 2007
• Day 4: 27th December, 2007
• Day 5: 28th December, 2007
• Day 6: 29th December, 2007
• Day 7: 30th December, 2007
• Day 8: New Year's Eve
• Day 9: New Year's Day
• Day 10: January 2nd, 2008
• Day 11: January 3rd, 2008
• Day 12: January 4th, 2008
• Day 13: January 5th, 2008
  
• Appendix A: The Voyage of Rya Jen
• Appendix B: Pictures
• Appendix C: Review of Canon Underwater Housing
• Appendix D: Dive Shops in the Virgin Islands
• Appendix E: Things I learned on this trip
• Appendix F: Resources
• Appendix G: Garmin GPSmap 76CSx
  

The Voyage of Rya Jen

My brothers bought me a GPS unit for my birthday, so for the first time, here's a GPS-chart of the course of our sailing trip!

Life on Mars TV Series Review

Its sort of been a time traveling theme this last few weeks for me, what with reading Joe Halderman's The Accidental Time Machine and watching the just-finished BBC series Life on Mars.

Life on Mars is basically a cop show with an interesting twist. What if you were an honest cop transported 30 years back into the past, before the computer age, before modern investigative techniques were around, and had a huge bully of a boss? Because you're honest, you don't do things like, bet on horses you know will win, or buy lotto tickets that'll make you a millionaire. You just keep on solving crimes. The mechanic to how the cop got to travel back in time is done via a car accident. The show alludes at various times that perhaps the main character isn't time traveling but is merely in a coma and everything he's seeing is imagined. The writers kind of threw away the idea that the character is time traveling by the 2nd or 3rd episode though, and the viewers pretty much know that the character is in a coma.

Honestly, the premise is not particularly strong, but the show works because of the incredible writing, the incredible acting, and very very solid production values. Its akin to watching a cop & robber shows from the 70s but with way better film and way better acting. I find myself thinking a lot of times that the time travel aspects/coma are just excuses for the creators and writers to write a 70s cop show more than something they themselves take seriously. And in truth of the 16 episodes that comprises the show, 15 of them were mostly your cop and robber show in a 70s backdrop. As mentioned earlier, the writing and the delivery of the writing is what really makes the show, and in all the episodes, this is delivered in spades.

One of the other aspects of the show that was done incredibly well is the soundtrack that was picked for the show. The show is bookended with David Bowie's "Life on Mars", and has an excellent eclectic mix of songs predominantly from the 70s, of course, but is also unafraid of throwing out more recent stuff.

Of special note is the ending to the series. It really completely blew my mind not because it was unexpected, but because of the massive philosophical and moral issues involved with the decision the main character makes. I won't spoil anything, but the ending is really quite haunting when you think about what the main character has done.

For someone who has not watched TV with any regularity since 1992, this has been a most excellent TV series (it could be that all TV series is this excellent nowadays, but somehow I doubt it). All in all, a most excellent show, and for those too lazy to track down the BBC DVDs, there should be an American version showing on some major network come sometime 2008.

Virgin Island Pictures, Part the First

Virgin Islands Part I - St Croix

Book Review: While I was Gone

This is a story about two women: Jo Becker and Dana Jablonski. They meet in their twenties during the 1960s. Jo is running away from a marriage, while Dana is living the life of an artist. Jo lies to hide her past from her housemates, while Dana is ruthlessly honest, defending herself from gossip by letting everyone know intimate details of her life.

An expected narrative would be a conflict between the two women, their ways of living, and perhaps an examination of the consequences. Instead, the narrative is one of Jo Becker telling the story of her past to the reader in first person (the story begins when her three children are all adults and out of the house), all the while continuing to keep her secrets from her husband and even her daughters, to the point where they call her elusive.

Becker's otherwise boring life becomes suddenly more interesting when one of her housemates from the past 25 years moves into town and they renew a connection. Secrets become unveiled, and Becker's otherwise stalid life becomes in jeopardy.

Other editors and reviewers comment that the book is about how one must deal with secrets and be careful which you should choose to keep, so I need speak no more about it. The copy of the novel I read had an interview with Sue Miller in which she noted that Jo Becker, as a person who chooses to act rather than to reflect, had certain limitations that made her uninteresting to write or contemplate. That explains why the first few chapters of the book were so difficult to read --- they rang false on almost every note, as someone who's pre-inclined to action over contemplation is hardly likely to make such a narrative. I also note that Sue Miller chooses to use a scientist as a villain in this piece, and does so by buying into every stereotype of a lab-rat scientist. Perhaps being an artiste herself, the only person she could have fill the role would have to be someone thoroughly alien to her. This is the part of the novel that I noticed and did not really appreciate.

I read this novel as an airplane novel, and perhaps, that was the only way I could have read it --- when I was a captive audience. While it gave me quite a bit to think about, I can't say that I agree with either the premise of the story, or the means by which Sue Miller chooses to make it. It's not a waste of time, but I'm not sure it otherwise has much to recommend it.

Rainbow over St. Croix

After today's SCUBA lessons, we had a late lunch and returned to our hotel in time to see some rain clouds form and start small rains from our hotel room. Lisa shot this picture from our balcony after a particularly pretty session.

View from Cessna 402

We took Cape Air from St. Thomas to St. Croix, on a Cessna 402. The highlight was when the pilot invited me to take the co-pilot seat. Of course I took it! It was only a 20 minute flight, but what a view. And I didn't have to do any work. This picture was shot by Lisa from just behind me.

Sunset at St. Croix

At Sunset, a View of the Hotel on the Cay from the Boardwalk

Why I love Youtube

Anyone who's on my IM list probably has gotten strings of youtube links, often to unrelated subject matter. There's just so much about youtube that its probably the most TV i've seen in the last 10 years or so.

I mostly use Youtube as a means of seeing old music videos, stuff like Baltimora's Tarzan Boy, or A-ha's Take on Me. Yes, I'm a child of the 80s and over the last year or so have managed to relive much of my childhood MTV videos. Much time spent reminiscing and thinking about days gone by =).

So Youtube is pretty great for english songs, but how about foreign languages? Its spectacular there too. Case in point, and the real reason why I'm blogging about it, I managed to find a song I have been searching for years just yesterday, by randomly clicking through stuff.

It started when I was looking for a rendition of the Macross ending theme, and found this compilation of various other anime ending theme songs...and in the middle of one of those songs, found the song I've been looking for!

The song, for those of you interested is the original Japanese version of this Alan Tam song(譚詠麟- 愛的替身)...



You can find the full version here, although the version I ended up liking the most is this one.

After I had the name of the song, it was a simple matter of contacting my Japanese friends, and I will soon have the CDs in my hand =) Years of searching and I finally have the song I want. =) Granted, I wasn't looking very hard either, but its such an unexpected bonus that I simply had to blog about it.

So once again, I repeat myself. This, and many reasons more, is why I love Youtube and so willingly spent hours upon hours every week clicking rapidly through so much stuff. Becuase when gems like these pop up unexpectedly, it is very much a Christmas Present come early!

P.S. Lyrics & translations for those who like to know these things

The Witcher Review

Over the last two weeks, my leisure time has been pretty much sucked up by this completely engrossing game: The Witcher.

The Witcher is a RPG set in a fairly typical Tolkein'esque fantasy setting. You have your dwarves, your elves, your dryads, your monsters (too many to list, but suffice to say you won't be whining that its simply a world full of short humans and point eared humans running around).

The game has you playing as the Titular hero, "The Witcher". Which in this world, refers to a special group of Monster Slayers. Far be it that they are normal, Witchers are a special breed in that they not only have mastered swordplay, but have also mastered sorcery, and also have special potions and other stuff that has mutated them far beyond that of a normal human. There are also normal human Monster Slayers in the game, but the game does a great job of explaining the difference between a normal human who happens to slay monsters and a witcher whose primary job is to slay monsters.

So far pretty rote right? Nothing special so far. Some might even be turned off that you don't get your choice in how you wish your character to be created...what if you don't want to be a sword wielding monster slayer, how about ranged weaponary? why swords? Well, the game doesn't give you any choice at all. You even have a name assigned to your Character....so those hoping for a Oblivon'esque experience have to be prepared to take this compromise or be prepared to skip one of the best RPG experiences in the last 5 years.

As mentioned previously, the game doesn't give you a choice in who to play...you have to play Geralt, who apparently is a famous Witcher in his own right. The game gets around the "this guy is so buff he doesn't need to level up" problem with playing a legend by giving him amnesia, so even though he knows how to use a sword, he's not great with it (yet). Although a bit of a cliched mechanic (how many more amnesiacs do we need to play??), it is very well handled through the great and mature writing.

Which brings us to what makes The Witcher a great game. The writing. The world that the Witcher takes place in is a very gritty world. Think Glen Cook's Black Company for a similar comparison. In this game, folks dying is just the beginning of the exploration of the mature themes. There is rape, torture, incest, and, well, Love. And that's just the tip of the iceberg! The developers however, cannot be credited with such a strong world, as most of the world buildling was done by the author of the Witcher series. Never heard of the Witcher series? Well, you're not the only one as it was previously a fantasy series sold only in Poland. An English translation of one of his novels is coming over the pond however, and it should be an interesting read.

What the developers can take credit for is how well they enhance the RPG experience. In most RPG experiences, you have your choice of being good, or being bad, with very little grey in between. When you're good, you're good as the purest snow, and when you're bad, you're like the lovechild of Hitler and Stalin.

The Witcher doesn't let you off so easily. There are moral ambiguities in almost every decision you make, and there is no right or wrong answer. Each answer can be justified one way or the other, and surprisingly enough, they even give you a choice of remaining neutral! With a character as powerful as Geralt, the game portrays what happens to neutral characters very realistically, and it is rather satisfying to see such thought put into the game story.

Beyond the whole moral "good", "bad", "netural" landscape of decisions to make, there are also other in-game decisions you make that affects how the game plays out. A decision you make in Act 1 (there are 5 acts, and 1 prolouge and 1 epilogue), can come back and affect you in the later acts. This is incredibly masterful in that it prevents the usual "save & load" syndrome that many RPGs have. By making decisions you make have an immediate payoff, and later payload unknown to you, it makes almost every decision you make seem weightier than ever! The best part is it really does make the world seem like a living world. A character you save in the beginning can come back to help you, or come back to haunt you (literally)....a decision to help a certain faction can deny you some side quests later...these decisions are never game breaking (they don't break the main quest), but it adds so much more flavor and details to the game that its hard to ignore.

A special mention needs to be made here for the story, the story is actually fairly simple, but the amount of details put into it is what makes it incredible. Add to it the choices you can make that customizes the game towards you, and it makes the story a rather rich multi-layered affair. Its fairly similar to something like Lord of the Rings (get rid of the ring) in that it is a fairly simple story, but the amount of details and layers added to it turns it into a classic. The Witcher is much the same way. Don't expect all threads to be revealed either, there's at least two pieces of ambiguity that never gets resolved at the end of the game, and its not really so much for "lets have a sequel" effect, as it is a "real life rarely reveals all either" effect.

There's also an option for the players to engage gratuitously in sex, and while some might object to it, its something easily skippable. Its also not explicit and non-interactive, for those really prudish about what they like to see in a game. I see it as an almost necessary feature in a RPG which claims to be gritty however.

The combat system is also fairly...revolutionary for an RPG. The game engine is a heavily modified NWN engine, and the combat is much the same: real time clickfest. Instead of just rapidly clicking until your enemy is dead, there's a timing aspect of it. You have to click at the appropriate moment within the animation to make the character combo into his next move. While it sounds like yet another simon says game, the timing is actually fairly complex and on the higher difficult levels, the window for the click is reduced, and there is no visual aid (on easy and normal, there's a flaming sword icon that replaces your mouse telling you "this is the time to click!").

The game graphically is gorgeous. Easily one of the prettiest games I've played, and I'll say the artwork rates higher than that of even previous heavyweights like Oblivion. Combat is a rather beautiful affair as long as you only look at what your character is doing...Geralt is very much a work of art when it involves swinging his sword, and even though it makes no sense why he has two styles of fighting with two very similar weapons, its mostly to give the players more eye-candy and more character customization options (max out silver sword? or steel sword? max out magic?).

The cutscenes in the game are mostly rendered using the game engine and I have to say I have never seen in game engine cut scenes rendered as beautifully in an RPG before. You'll swear the cut scenes are basically movies....until you get to the movies, and there its even better. They really did capture the way Geralt moves and fight. The scenery within the game are also spectaular, ranging from the complex city, a dreary swamp, to a very cheery village. Locales are varied and dungeons are kept to a minimum and only in sensible locations.

So...what are the shortcomings of a game like this? The first is that load times can be rather long, though the newest patch promises to solve this issue. The other is that you can't ever really be evil. Even when you side with the wrong faction, the game makes sure you realize the mistake down the road and corrects it for you. Though the correction makes sense, it can still grate on those who truly revel in what evils their in-game character can create. Given that this is a game about the titular character, it should be expected, but I can still see it as a problem. Oh yes, there are also numerous Crash-to-desktop bugs as well, but once again, all these problems appear to have been patched away (I didn't patch for fear that I'll have to restart the game over!).

The game is also long, 50 hours or so. Some might see it as a shortcoming, some might think its not long enough. =)

So..in summary, one of the best games I've played this year, ranking up there with Stalker, and Portal. For an RPG to engross me this readily is no longer an easy task (I stopped playing NWN2 and Oblivion within 10 hours of each), and I can heartily recommend this game with no second thoughts.

Steve Yegge on Code Size Bloat

Steve Yegge has a long, interesting rant about code size bloat, Java, and IDEs. At one point, he complaints:

Heck, I've never managed to get Eclipse to pull in and index even my 500,000-line code base, and I've spent weeks trying. It just falls over, paralyzed. It literally hangs forever (I can leave it overnight and it makes no progress.) Twenty million lines? Forget about it.
It's a pity Steve doesn't work at Google, then he would be aware of gtags, which indexes and provides search results for even Goolge-sized codebases without complaining.

Oh wait... Steve Yegge does work at Google... There are good points about code bloat in that entry, but then again, there's a real problem with picking a less popular language than C++/Java, which is that there are way more tools for those languages than there are for say, Rhino. It's sort of like CMOS versus every other kind of silicon technology. There's always a new technology just around the corner, but there's so much invested into CMOS that the newer technologies never do catch up.

Krugman unearths more Obama history...

It is beginning to look very much that getting Obama as president would be as unfortunate as getting Mitt Romney as president from the universal health care point of view --- we are just as unlikely to get universal health care.

Paul Krugman @ Google now live on you tube

Review: The Accidental Time Machine

The Joe Haldeman I remember is the one who wrote All My Sins Remembered and The Forever War, iconic pieces of fiction that in at least one case, I find emotionally difficult to read a second time. In recent years, however, with Red Thunder and even the Nebula-winning Camouflage, it seems like he's gone for an entirely different genre all together --- the short airplane novel that's straight forward and easy to read, incorporates a few science fiction ideas, and has next to no character development, and leaves you feeling a bit like you've just swallowed a whole bunch of empty calories.

Take The Accidental Time Machine, for instance. Haldeman teaches creative writing at MIT, so he is extremely familiar with the setting, and can't help including a bit of the history of the infinite corridor, for instance. The basic concept, that of time travel, has been worked over quite a bit by science fiction writers, and Haldeman doesn't bring anything new to it. The story revolves around a graduate student, Matthew, who gets a machine to travel forward to time while building something else. He experiments with it a bit before subjecting himself to its effects, and then finds himself in trouble with the law. But he's always being bailed out by either providence or a future instance of himself. He interacts with future history (including future versions of MIT, as well as a past version), but the character is entirely plot-driven --- he doesn't create new devices, doesn't solve problems with his ingenuity, and is just dragged along by circumstances and his constant desire to return to MIT, wherever and whenever he is.

So as a Tom Swift type novel this book fails. As an examination of the science fiction concept of time travel, it isn't as innovative as Vernor Vinge's Marooned in Realtime. Perhaps you could consider the character developed, since he goes from a Ritalin-using wired up grad student to becoming a physics professor who enjoys the love of a good woman, but even so, it does not appear that that's the point of the book.

So I guess the point of the book is a romp through time checking out past and future versions of MIT. Which is all very good if you're an MIT-lifer, but perhaps a waste of your time if you're not.

Review: Agent to the Stars

Agent to the Stars is John Scalzi's first novel. Not his first published novel, but his first written novel. In the foreword, Scalzi notes that he wrote it as an exercise to see whether he could indeed write a novel, and never planned to even attempt to publish it. But he had a lot of fun while writing it, and when he was done, sent it around to see whether it could indeed get published. What happened was that it got roundly rejected, and he posted it online for everyone to read. As it happened enough people liked it that he got about $4000 in donations from various folks who enjoyed it.

Naturally, once Old Man's War was published to both commercial success and critical acclaim, a publisher stepped forward to offer to publish this book. Now, if you've read Scott Adam's column in the Wall Street Journal about giving stuff away on the internet, you will see that Adams, who had considerably more clout than Scalzi did, apparently did not negotiate with his publisher to keep his old free blog entries available on the internet, but agreed to take them down. Scalzi, who's probably not in the same category of wealth that Adams is in, apparently thought enough of the internet to keep the product free while betting that the paper product would reach more people and still bring in money. I guess science fiction writers really are a forward thinking bunch of folks who aren't in it all for the money.

How does the novel read? It reads amazingly well. If I ever tried to write a novel, and it turned out of this quality, I would be very pleased with myself, even if it never got sold. The plot of the novel revolves around a Hollywood agent for actors and actresses who has just had the first big break of his career. His boss calls him in and asks him to represent the toughest sell in anyone's career, a bunch of space aliens who have visited the earth, but look like the blob and smell like fart, and want a way to introduce themselves to the Earth's population without immediate assumption of hostilities just based on appearance alone. And of course, who would know how to make a good impression but the best of Hollywood?

The plot unfolds in a straightforward manner, but not without showing off Scalzi's versatility. He can write dialogs, he can write from different perspectives (including the Protagonist's boss), he can write press releases (a whole chapter is written in press release form, which is entertaining), and he can even write funny scenes in a dry, straightforward fashion without giving the impression that he thinks constantly about how smart he is.

A very impressive first novel, and excellent airplane reading. Recommended.

Review: The Android's Dream

I seem to be on a John Scalzi kick this year, not just because his books are entertaining, but also because they seem to be exceedingly easy to get at the local library.

This book takes place on a future Earth that has had plenty of contact with alien species, but one that is not in constant war with them. The intention appears to be that of a humorous romp through a science fiction universe. Harry Creek, a genius-level programmer and investigator, has been happily under-utilized as a "Xenosapient Facilitator" for the Earth's government. But when a diplomatic incident threatens interstellar war, his old friend calls him in to help find a creature of the utmost importance, a sheep known as The Android's Dream.

Unfortunately, Creek's opponents are already well ahead of him, and soon, he discovers that there is only one specimen of that sheep DNA left in a living creature, who turns out to be a pet shop owner who had never been told of her non-human origins. To say more about what happens afterwards would give away the plot, though perhaps in the case of this book that's not all that important. Rest assured that aliens, criminals, replicant AIs and a church determined to make its kooky founder's fake religion's prophecies come true all play a major part, and the romp is in earnest, if not a little bit too kinetic.

Scalzi's sense of humor is prevalent, though nothing like the form he achieved in Old Man's War. All in all, while it's an entertaining evening's read, it is not as good as his best work.

Paul Krugman Visits Google

Almost everyone knows about the best perk at Google: the excellent food in the corporate cafeterias. But the next best perk is much lesser known, which is the authors@google program, where intellectuals from Neil Gaiman, Malcolm Gladwell, Bill Easterley, and Michael Lewis come by, give a talk about their book, get questions tossed at them by Googlers, and generally provide an intellectually stimulating environment that rivals or exceeds those of a major research university.

For the last 3 years or so, I kept bugging Hal Varian to grab Paul Krugman for a talk. Now Hal is fond of telling me that whoever I ask him to bring would be a bad speaker (though invariably he's wrong --- apparently the mere act of having to give a talk at Google brings out the best in people), but in the case of Krugman, his most response was, "I've invited him several times but he's always turned us down."

So when Paul Krugman came by, I made it a point to get to his talk, get his latest book signed, and ask a couple of questions (off the air, so don't expect to see me on the video). Hal and Meng convinced Paul to give a technical, economics talk, mostly on the housing crisis and what happened there. If you've followed his columns and blog, or read the excellent blog written by Calculated Risk, then none of it will be new. Nevertheless, several snippets Krugman said caught my ear:

• I'm known as an international trade expert. But nowadays, when I visit conferences in other countries, people ask me "Why haven't you been writing about Brazil, or Latin America, or currency crisis." My response has been, "I'm trying to save my own damn Republic here."
• We now have fair trade with China. We give them dollars, and they give us poisoned toys and fish.
• I have varying degrees of indifference about the falling dollar. First of all, it can't cause a lot of inflation not just because in the grand scheme of things even the huge amount of trade can create at most one or two percent of additional inflation. There are a lot of studies that show that when the dollar drops, foreign countries reduce their margins rather than trying to reduce their market share, and that compensation effect can be as much as 40%. Basically, the prices are set by micro-economics, not macro-economics. Finally, because US corporations own so much foreign assets, when the dollar falls, their balances actually improve. Latin American countries like Argentina get in trouble when their currencies fall because their debt is denominated in dollars. Our debt is also denominated in dollars, but it's our currency, so what happens is we get debt deflation when the dollar drops.
• The Republican nominees all have to say that we're on the downward sloping side of the laffer curve, meaning that if we cut taxes, tax revenues will go up. This is unprecedented. If you look at the 2000 election, even the Bush campaign did not say that for fear of looking irresponsible.
• On the chances of a recession next year? I can definitively tell you that I don't know. I've been wrong on things before. For instance, the strength of the 2003-2005 recovery surprised me. And currently, the strength of consumer spending also surprises me. For some reason, nothing can stop the American consumer.
  

I asked my questions of him in a private session afterwards.
You've convinced me of Obama's incompetence on important issues. Are there any candidates you particularly like?
You will note that I didn't attack Obama until his campaign started bashing me. I did point out the flaws in his healthcare proposal from the very beginning, which is the free-rider problem when you do not have a mandate, which is other candidate's methods of making sure that you can't just not have health insurance,and then when you need it sign up for it because there's no penalty for not having insurance. That's what Obama's plan does. In any case, I can't provide endorsements, but my personal preferences are Edwards, Clinton, and then Obama, in that order. In any case, there's actually not that much difference between the three candidates, but what a lot of people don't get is that in this case, Obama is the establishment candidate --- compared to both Clinton and Edwards, he's has the least progressive agenda, because he's trying to be a uniter. Both Clinton and Edwards come out with good policy ideas, but Edwards comes out with them first, so I like him more.
What are the chances of getting universal healthcare after this election cycle?
If a Democrat wins the White House, and we have a Democratic congress, a little better than even odds. That's because all the candidates now at least have plans so they can hit the ground running. Clinton squandered a lot of time by waiting until he was in office before doing healthcare. Johnson signed his Medicaid bill 6 months after he entered office, because it was the first thing on his agenda.
In 2004 I asked Brad De Long about the election. He said well, if the Democrats win we'll have a competent government. If they lose, we'll all get rich by buying international stocks and emerging market stocks. As the last 4 years have shown, that turned out to be incredibly lucrative advice. Can you top that?
If Giuliani wins, you better stock up on canned food, guns and ammo. His campaign advisers are made up of people who were too hawkish for the Bush administration. Of all the Republican candidates, the most reasonable one is Mitt Romney, but I have a bias, because if he gets the Republican nomination, the Democrats have a better chance of winning.
Why do you think China is refusing to revalue their currency? It seems to be doing them a lot of damage, because of the amount of inflation it's generating in their economy.
Well, having worked in government I can tell you why. Things are going well right now. They've had that peg for years, and it works well, so there's no reason for them to change it unless things get intolerable. The last time something like this happened was when Germany allowed the Mark to float back in the 1970s. And for them an intolerable amount of inflation was 2 or 3 percent. But that was Germany, with its memory of the inflation of the 1920s. The Chinese have no such history and have much more tolerance for inflation than the mere 10% a year they are seeing.
There are many who think the CPI under states inflation. What do you think?
The CPI includes a basket of goods that include things like electronics which fall in price, whereas the prices that people remember are things like food prices. The cost of a Thanksgiving turkey is up 11% compared to last year, and that's what people remember.

I'll edit this post if I remember more, but nevertheless, I am very glad to have met the one guy who was willing to keep needling the Bush administration all throughout the last eight years, even at times when it must have been very hard to do so. He is as smart as his essays and columns make him look, and yes Hal, he was a great speaker.

Gtags 2.0 released

Thanks to the hard work of Nigel D'Souza, gtags 2.0 has gone open source! We've actually been using this version internally since April, but it had so many dependencies on internal infrastructure that it took a full work term to untangle it. There's yet more cool stuff coming. The gtags mixer (introduced in this release) has the ability to index the files on your disk, so it is possible (though I don't know if it is easy) to use this without having a gtags server at all, which should make some small project coders happy.

I use gtags every day myself, and Google's code base is big enough that it is essential for me. I hope others find it useful as well.