Monday, October 20, 2008
Accept no substitutes!
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Review: The Snowball
The Snowball (kindle edition) is the official biography of Warren Buffet's life. It arrives at a timely moment, as the world is embroiled in a financial crisis (in fact, there's a tantalizing description of what Buffet & Co are doing as the crisis unfolded, and the approach they're taking is a major reason to buy some stock in Berkshire Hathaway)
Alice Schroeder provides a surprising opening to the book by starting with Warren Buffett's low point --- the height of the dot-com bubble in 1999, when even his shareholders were losing faith in the value-investing approach. She then back-tracks through the years to Buffett's formative years, his discovery of Benjamin Graham, and his first millions.
What does not come across from the primary sources (e.g., his annual letters to his shareholders) is how hard Buffett worked. This was a man who packed corporate ledgers on his honeymoon, who would later come to regret not having paid attention at all as his kids grew up. Clearly, there's a price to be paid for his success, and I am not at all certain many would have been willing to pay it:
As Buffett liked to put it, “Intensity is the price of excellence.” (Kindle location: 5461-62)
We are reminded that mortgage crises are not at all unusual in history:
Out in the countryside, farmers faced with foreclosure on mortgages backed by nearly worthless farmland rose up in civil disobedience. Five thousand farmers marched on the state capitol in Lincoln until panicked lawmakers hastily passed a mortgage moratorium bill. (Kindle location: 853-56)
We also get a good look at Buffett's relationships with his wife, his family, and his circle of friends. Time after time, Schroeder emphasizes how little Buffett enjoyed interacting with people, though in recent years with the death of his wife, Buffett has appeared to mature beyond that. What also comes through the book is how often Buffett was right, and how he reacted whenever he was wrong --- he did not make excuses, and tried to do the right thing.
One thing that came through in this book is Buffett's respect for capital --- he felt that he owed employees a salary, but none of the gains of businesses, and so did not consider profit-sharing plans something worthy of discussion, even in industries as highly talent dependent as the financial industry. The typical stock-option package handed out at Silicon Valley startups would undoubtedly horrify him. I wonder how he would have done as a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, but with the heavy people-involvement needed in Silicon Valley, he probably would have shied away from it as being outside his circle of competence.
Yet for someone who's so obsessed with money as Buffett is, he does not fall into the trap that many capitalists have, which is to attempt to short-change society in the long term (by crippling important social programs and providing essential services, as well as serving as a regulator to prevent people who would otherwise take insane risks from jeopardizing the entire system) in the interest of lowering short term rates --- here as in everywhere else, Buffett proves to be much more far-sighted than the typical libertarian:
If it was pointed out that risk did not disappear, those who participated in the market would explain with a sigh that securitization and swap derivatives “spread” the risk to the far corners of the globe, where it would be absorbed by so many people that it could never hurt anyone. (Kindle location: 13853-55)
All in all, The Snowball comes highly recommended as far as providing insight into what went into making the most successful investor of all time, as well as providing historical context for the current financial crisis. If you have substantial financial assets, you owe it to yourself to read this book.
Alice Schroeder provides a surprising opening to the book by starting with Warren Buffett's low point --- the height of the dot-com bubble in 1999, when even his shareholders were losing faith in the value-investing approach. She then back-tracks through the years to Buffett's formative years, his discovery of Benjamin Graham, and his first millions.
What does not come across from the primary sources (e.g., his annual letters to his shareholders) is how hard Buffett worked. This was a man who packed corporate ledgers on his honeymoon, who would later come to regret not having paid attention at all as his kids grew up. Clearly, there's a price to be paid for his success, and I am not at all certain many would have been willing to pay it:
As Buffett liked to put it, “Intensity is the price of excellence.” (Kindle location: 5461-62)
We are reminded that mortgage crises are not at all unusual in history:
Out in the countryside, farmers faced with foreclosure on mortgages backed by nearly worthless farmland rose up in civil disobedience. Five thousand farmers marched on the state capitol in Lincoln until panicked lawmakers hastily passed a mortgage moratorium bill. (Kindle location: 853-56)
We also get a good look at Buffett's relationships with his wife, his family, and his circle of friends. Time after time, Schroeder emphasizes how little Buffett enjoyed interacting with people, though in recent years with the death of his wife, Buffett has appeared to mature beyond that. What also comes through the book is how often Buffett was right, and how he reacted whenever he was wrong --- he did not make excuses, and tried to do the right thing.
One thing that came through in this book is Buffett's respect for capital --- he felt that he owed employees a salary, but none of the gains of businesses, and so did not consider profit-sharing plans something worthy of discussion, even in industries as highly talent dependent as the financial industry. The typical stock-option package handed out at Silicon Valley startups would undoubtedly horrify him. I wonder how he would have done as a Silicon Valley entrepreneur, but with the heavy people-involvement needed in Silicon Valley, he probably would have shied away from it as being outside his circle of competence.
Yet for someone who's so obsessed with money as Buffett is, he does not fall into the trap that many capitalists have, which is to attempt to short-change society in the long term (by crippling important social programs and providing essential services, as well as serving as a regulator to prevent people who would otherwise take insane risks from jeopardizing the entire system) in the interest of lowering short term rates --- here as in everywhere else, Buffett proves to be much more far-sighted than the typical libertarian:
If it was pointed out that risk did not disappear, those who participated in the market would explain with a sigh that securitization and swap derivatives “spread” the risk to the far corners of the globe, where it would be absorbed by so many people that it could never hurt anyone. (Kindle location: 13853-55)
All in all, The Snowball comes highly recommended as far as providing insight into what went into making the most successful investor of all time, as well as providing historical context for the current financial crisis. If you have substantial financial assets, you owe it to yourself to read this book.
Doyenz exits stealth mode
Earlier this year, I looked at a bunch of startups, including those from Paul Graham's Y-combinator. My policy with startups is that unlike a venture capitalist, I don't have energy (or the money, really), to go spray a ton of cash around a bunch of ideas and hope one sticks. I'm also relatively risk-averse, compared to those whose net worth is much higher.
Most Web 2.0 startups don't impress me, mostly because I don't see a path to revenue and profitability for most of them. Worse of all, most of them are quite cheap to run, so if you put money in them, there's no resolution for many years while they limp along. What's interesting about the Y-combinator startups is that for most of them, it's their first startup, and it shows --- there's no concern for monetization, and there's not enough "Oh yeah, if Microsoft tried to buy us for $40million I'd be thrilled and be happy to sell."
When we spoke with the Doyenz co-founders they were clearly a cut above. The first thing I liked about the business plan was how focused it was --- they aren't doing anything seriously sexy (though there are technical barriers to doing what they are doing), so it's unlikely that the next Y-combinator startup will try to address their space (and goodness knows, big companies aren't likely to do so), and it's got a path to profitability even in a recessionary environment (which is when people are most likely to want to save money, which is what Doyenz's product does). The founders have done a previous startup together, and hadn't been too shy to sell out and make money when the time came.
So a coalition of my friends and I anted up and put in some money, and here they are, several months later, with a product and customers. What's interesting is that we had the reverse of buyer's remorse after this investment round --- as we looked around and interviewed more startups, Roberto and I ended up thinking, "I wish I'd put more money into these guys. They really are different."
Most Web 2.0 startups don't impress me, mostly because I don't see a path to revenue and profitability for most of them. Worse of all, most of them are quite cheap to run, so if you put money in them, there's no resolution for many years while they limp along. What's interesting about the Y-combinator startups is that for most of them, it's their first startup, and it shows --- there's no concern for monetization, and there's not enough "Oh yeah, if Microsoft tried to buy us for $40million I'd be thrilled and be happy to sell."
When we spoke with the Doyenz co-founders they were clearly a cut above. The first thing I liked about the business plan was how focused it was --- they aren't doing anything seriously sexy (though there are technical barriers to doing what they are doing), so it's unlikely that the next Y-combinator startup will try to address their space (and goodness knows, big companies aren't likely to do so), and it's got a path to profitability even in a recessionary environment (which is when people are most likely to want to save money, which is what Doyenz's product does). The founders have done a previous startup together, and hadn't been too shy to sell out and make money when the time came.
So a coalition of my friends and I anted up and put in some money, and here they are, several months later, with a product and customers. What's interesting is that we had the reverse of buyer's remorse after this investment round --- as we looked around and interviewed more startups, Roberto and I ended up thinking, "I wish I'd put more money into these guys. They really are different."
My Commute Got Prettier!
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| Munich Fall Commute |
My commute took an extra 15 minutes today, because I had to stop so often to take pictures! That was a problem I never had in Mountain View, and I feel privileged!
Sunday, October 05, 2008
Garmisch Fall Hike/Bike Ride
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| Garmisch Fall |
It was a beautiful fall day today, so we got on the train at 7:44 and rode it to Garmisch-Partenkirchen, famous for the Zugspitz. Our first order of business was to explore the Partnach Gorge in Garmisch, which turned into a 2-3 hour hike as we followed the rivers up and got gorgeous views of the mountains around us.
Then it was a cable car ride back to the Olympic stadium and then a short walk back to get our bikes. We intended to ride over to the Zugspitz Bahn to hitch a ride to the tallest mountain in Germany, but between mechanicals and a general tardiness we didn't make it and ended up riding to the Eibsee instead. Nevertheless, what a gorgeous day!
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Funny quote w.r.t. Richard Morgan
From Mike Samuel's lips:
Raymond Chandler said, '...If you stopped to think you were lost. When in doubt, have a man come through a door with a gun in his hand.' I think Richard Morgan's reply would be, 'When in doubt, have a woman come through the door and have sex with the protagonist.'
Yup, that's Richard Morgan alright. But his Takeshi Kovacs books are still great reading.
Raymond Chandler said, '...If you stopped to think you were lost. When in doubt, have a man come through a door with a gun in his hand.' I think Richard Morgan's reply would be, 'When in doubt, have a woman come through the door and have sex with the protagonist.'
Yup, that's Richard Morgan alright. But his Takeshi Kovacs books are still great reading.
Wednesday, October 01, 2008
Review: Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom
Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom(Free Kindle download) is a short novel (really a novella) about a post-scarcity society known as The Bitchun society, a society where the reputation economy has come about. There's no money, there's only the Whuffle, which you get when people like you, or like the things you do, and you can trade that in for favors or things.
The novel revolves around a man who works in Disneyworld for the Haunted Mansion with his girlfriend who gets murdered one day. Since you can back yourself up in this universe and do a restore just as easily, he was soon resurrected, though not without a glitch. As he tries to figure out who killed him, he becomes paranoid and a thoroughly unpleasant fellow, losing his girlfriend, and slowly all his Whuffles.
As with a typical science fiction novel that's really about one idea, that entire plot is an excuse to explain the Bitchun society and the implications thereof. As a novel, complexity is lacking, and the narrator is practically unbelieveable, especially as the plot unwinds towards the end.
As an exploration of a post-scarcity society and the implications of backup/restore, however, the novella does a fine job. And given that it's such a short read, that's enough to recommend it.
The novel revolves around a man who works in Disneyworld for the Haunted Mansion with his girlfriend who gets murdered one day. Since you can back yourself up in this universe and do a restore just as easily, he was soon resurrected, though not without a glitch. As he tries to figure out who killed him, he becomes paranoid and a thoroughly unpleasant fellow, losing his girlfriend, and slowly all his Whuffles.
As with a typical science fiction novel that's really about one idea, that entire plot is an excuse to explain the Bitchun society and the implications thereof. As a novel, complexity is lacking, and the narrator is practically unbelieveable, especially as the plot unwinds towards the end.
As an exploration of a post-scarcity society and the implications of backup/restore, however, the novella does a fine job. And given that it's such a short read, that's enough to recommend it.
Review: Star Guard
Star Guard is the first half of the Andre Norton Ombnibous Star Soldiers (dead tree edition). It's set in a universe where humans as the new species, gets it's inherently violent tendencies channeled into being mercenary warriors for various other species as part of their payment for getting the star drive.
The story revolves around a company of soldiers on a job when they get betrayed, against all galactic conventions to the contrary, and attacked with contraband weapons. The rest of it is one long adventure story, complete with treks across wilderness, alien encounters, negotiations, and all the rest of it. The military aspect is handled quite decently, and the writing workman-like but competent.
All in all, that got me through the first half of this omnibus, but I didn't have the stomach to keep reading to the next book, because the tropes she used are all too common today, so the plot kept feeling predictable. I'm discovering that the Baen library is not quite to my taste.
The story revolves around a company of soldiers on a job when they get betrayed, against all galactic conventions to the contrary, and attacked with contraband weapons. The rest of it is one long adventure story, complete with treks across wilderness, alien encounters, negotiations, and all the rest of it. The military aspect is handled quite decently, and the writing workman-like but competent.
All in all, that got me through the first half of this omnibus, but I didn't have the stomach to keep reading to the next book, because the tropes she used are all too common today, so the plot kept feeling predictable. I'm discovering that the Baen library is not quite to my taste.
Review: The Business
The Business is Iain Bank's foray into a novel about corporations and companies. Unlike Richard Morgan's Market Forces (Banks was a banker, while Morgan was an ESL instructor), Banks characteristically builds an Utopian-type company.
The Business is a corporation that's several hundred years old (trust a British SF writer to come up with a centuries old corporation which nobody has ever heard of) that's governed like a democracy --- managers are voted managers by people who have to report to them, and corporate officers are only allowed to buy perks (such as houses, etc) from the company, and on their death, cannot pass such perks on to their descendants.
The story follows Kathryn Telman, an up and coming woman executive in The Business who specializes in technology investments. At the start of the story, she's on sabbatical and spends her free time visiting (where else) corporate locations and investments for fun. We follow her as she flies from one company event to another, spurning suitors, and getting an explanation of how such a business would work, and how she was uplifted from grungy beginnings by a kind Business woman, and various machinations The Business is going through to try to get a seat on the UN.
Mid-way through the book, I realized that I didn't know what Banks was building towards. Then in the last 2 chapters he ties up all the loose ends, even the ones I didn't know were there, and then ends the novel in such a way that I think any feminist would be offended. In any case, I found the ending unsatisfying, so I'm afraid I'll have to lump this in together Song of Stone, though it's far more readable and much more coherent than that turkey was.
The Business is a corporation that's several hundred years old (trust a British SF writer to come up with a centuries old corporation which nobody has ever heard of) that's governed like a democracy --- managers are voted managers by people who have to report to them, and corporate officers are only allowed to buy perks (such as houses, etc) from the company, and on their death, cannot pass such perks on to their descendants.
The story follows Kathryn Telman, an up and coming woman executive in The Business who specializes in technology investments. At the start of the story, she's on sabbatical and spends her free time visiting (where else) corporate locations and investments for fun. We follow her as she flies from one company event to another, spurning suitors, and getting an explanation of how such a business would work, and how she was uplifted from grungy beginnings by a kind Business woman, and various machinations The Business is going through to try to get a seat on the UN.
Mid-way through the book, I realized that I didn't know what Banks was building towards. Then in the last 2 chapters he ties up all the loose ends, even the ones I didn't know were there, and then ends the novel in such a way that I think any feminist would be offended. In any case, I found the ending unsatisfying, so I'm afraid I'll have to lump this in together Song of Stone, though it's far more readable and much more coherent than that turkey was.
Review: The Lion of Farside
The Lion of Farside(Dead Tree Edition) is a cross-world fantasy novel. Like many stereotypes of the mid-west, Curtis Macurdy grows up and marries his uncle's wife, and then discovers that she's from another world (which explains why she stayed 25 all those years she was married to his uncle). Then one day, the other worlders shows up and kidnaps her, and Macurdy crosses over himself, discovers formerly unknown talents he never knew he had in the area of magic and warfare, conquers a country and starts a war to get her back.
There, I've summarized the book in a paragraph, now you don't have to read me. The writing isn't great, the plot is pretty dumb, and this is probably the male equivalent of the bodice ripper I just panned. I guess I really do like the books I actually pay for on the Kindle better than the free ones I find randomly.
There, I've summarized the book in a paragraph, now you don't have to read me. The writing isn't great, the plot is pretty dumb, and this is probably the male equivalent of the bodice ripper I just panned. I guess I really do like the books I actually pay for on the Kindle better than the free ones I find randomly.
Review: Touch of Evil
I'm beginning to think that all the free e-book giveaways that Tor books launched are modern boddice-rippers. What's frustrating, in the case of Touch of Evil is that the authors are actually very readable --- the book flows easily, and there's such seamless collaboration between the authors that I can't see two different authors at work.
The story evolves around Katie, who apparently had her fiance stolen by a vampire woman in the past, tangled with the vampire crowd, and got away with their grudging respect. Katie's a modern woman --- headstrong, stubbornly independent, and unable to rely on anyone (least of all a man), she tries to tackle all her problems by herself, headstrong, so when she comes back from a business trip and is attacked by vampires she goes on a rampage.
Love interest is introduced in the form of a man in distress in this case a fireman who's looking for an apartment to rent in the building that Katie owns. After this, there's a series of reveal after reveal, some action sequences, and an ending that's complete with a count-down and kitschy ending. It's practically a made-for-tv movie.
What I do like about the setting is that it's a world where everyone knows about vampires and werewolves and the like --- there's none of the "No, they don't exist" reactions that you see in many other urban fantasy settings --- the authors truly did create an alternative world and made everything stick. Unfortunately, they didn't take it to its logical conclusion --- after all, in a world where the police knew about vampires and were-wolves, they wouldn't be so woefully unequipped to deal with them.
Logic aside, there's plenty of longing and sighs, and stupidity amongst the characters. This is a trashy novel and doesn't pretend to be otherwise, and I did wish more than once that the authors had decided to tell a better story instead --- there's so much talent here going to waste!
The story evolves around Katie, who apparently had her fiance stolen by a vampire woman in the past, tangled with the vampire crowd, and got away with their grudging respect. Katie's a modern woman --- headstrong, stubbornly independent, and unable to rely on anyone (least of all a man), she tries to tackle all her problems by herself, headstrong, so when she comes back from a business trip and is attacked by vampires she goes on a rampage.
Love interest is introduced in the form of a man in distress in this case a fireman who's looking for an apartment to rent in the building that Katie owns. After this, there's a series of reveal after reveal, some action sequences, and an ending that's complete with a count-down and kitschy ending. It's practically a made-for-tv movie.
What I do like about the setting is that it's a world where everyone knows about vampires and werewolves and the like --- there's none of the "No, they don't exist" reactions that you see in many other urban fantasy settings --- the authors truly did create an alternative world and made everything stick. Unfortunately, they didn't take it to its logical conclusion --- after all, in a world where the police knew about vampires and were-wolves, they wouldn't be so woefully unequipped to deal with them.
Logic aside, there's plenty of longing and sighs, and stupidity amongst the characters. This is a trashy novel and doesn't pretend to be otherwise, and I did wish more than once that the authors had decided to tell a better story instead --- there's so much talent here going to waste!
Review: Lord of Light
There's nothing as fulfilling as reading old Roger Zelazny, and Lord of Light is still one of the best science fiction novels written out there. The story starts thus:
His followers called him Mahasamatman and said he was a god. He preferred to drop the Maha- and the -atman, however, and called himself Sam. He never claimed to be a god. But then, he never claimed not to be a god. Circumstances being wha they were, neither admission could be of any benefit. Silence, though, could.
The story is science fiction, though that's revealed in dribs and drabs, bits and pieces throughout the story. We slowly learn of the planet's past, and the history of the colonists and the crew that brought them to this world. Having overcome the obstacles and successfully established a colony, the crew of the ship have set themselves up as gods, claiming for themselves the role of gods in the Hindu pantheon and rigging up life on the world in a Hindu society.
Cast in the role of the rebel is Sam, who adopts the persona real life historical rebel against Hinduism, Buddhism's Siddharta. All the technology is couched in mythological terms, right down to the indigenous intelligent beings of the planet.
In any case, the story starts with Sam's reincarnation, and then flashes back, wheel-of-time fashion to past events, and recounts everything that brought the gods to this point. The final part brings everything to a conclusion, and is surprisingly short and quite anti-climatic. On the other hand, perhaps in the modern age, Zelazny would have been tempted to turn this into a 7-book cycle, and one should be grateful that he wrote in an age where one novel was plenty to tell a complete story.
Highly recommended.
His followers called him Mahasamatman and said he was a god. He preferred to drop the Maha- and the -atman, however, and called himself Sam. He never claimed to be a god. But then, he never claimed not to be a god. Circumstances being wha they were, neither admission could be of any benefit. Silence, though, could.
The story is science fiction, though that's revealed in dribs and drabs, bits and pieces throughout the story. We slowly learn of the planet's past, and the history of the colonists and the crew that brought them to this world. Having overcome the obstacles and successfully established a colony, the crew of the ship have set themselves up as gods, claiming for themselves the role of gods in the Hindu pantheon and rigging up life on the world in a Hindu society.
Cast in the role of the rebel is Sam, who adopts the persona real life historical rebel against Hinduism, Buddhism's Siddharta. All the technology is couched in mythological terms, right down to the indigenous intelligent beings of the planet.
In any case, the story starts with Sam's reincarnation, and then flashes back, wheel-of-time fashion to past events, and recounts everything that brought the gods to this point. The final part brings everything to a conclusion, and is surprisingly short and quite anti-climatic. On the other hand, perhaps in the modern age, Zelazny would have been tempted to turn this into a 7-book cycle, and one should be grateful that he wrote in an age where one novel was plenty to tell a complete story.
Highly recommended.
Review: Lamb
Lamb (dead tree edition) is admittedly Christopher Moore's bid to answer the question, What if Jesus knew Kung Fu?
The book reveals that Jesus's best friend in childhood was Levi, also known as Biff. Like a true wing-man, Biff goes through life protecting Jesus from his own holy-ness. If there was any despicable act that needed doing, Biff would do it, up to and including adultery, poison, and so on and so forth.
A lot of the humor is really juvenile (up to and including the toilet humor in one scene) in the Farelly brothers sense, and perhaps it would be fun to think of a movie version of Lamb directed by the two of them.
Nevertheless, at the end of a long day of cycling in the Pyrenees, this was a really fun book to be reading. Recommended. Heck, even Scarlet, a much more refined reader than I am, liked it.
The book reveals that Jesus's best friend in childhood was Levi, also known as Biff. Like a true wing-man, Biff goes through life protecting Jesus from his own holy-ness. If there was any despicable act that needed doing, Biff would do it, up to and including adultery, poison, and so on and so forth.
A lot of the humor is really juvenile (up to and including the toilet humor in one scene) in the Farelly brothers sense, and perhaps it would be fun to think of a movie version of Lamb directed by the two of them.
Nevertheless, at the end of a long day of cycling in the Pyrenees, this was a really fun book to be reading. Recommended. Heck, even Scarlet, a much more refined reader than I am, liked it.
Get Rich Slow
With the recent market collapse, I've been literally getting questions and queries from all over the world about what I'm doing, and what's going on.
I've been relatively sanguine about the whole affair --- not just because I'm in Munich, so I'm quite far away from all the noise. First of all, what's happening is a purely financial matter --- if all the banks went away tomorrow, companies will still get things done. Corporations still run relatively little debt, and a little bit of history will tell you that what we have here isn't even as bad as the 1987 stock market drop. The probability of another Great Depression is quite slight. I'd be much more worried if there was another world war
A review of the sample asset allocation spreadsheet I put together in late July shows a 7% drop. (This over-states the losses, since it ignores dividends and interest, but you get the point) While that wouldn't make you a happy camper, it is certainly not something to panic about. In fact, if you invest for long enough, you will have a year with a 30% drop eventually. You just don't know when. It might be this year, but it might come the day before you retire. That's why financial planning is a multi-decade process, and month-by-month posts and portfolio watching is likely to be counter-productive.
I just observed that one of my watched financial blogs pfblog has stopped updating his monthly portfolio reports since July. This is how survivorship bias works --- at this moment anyone who's been successful will be bragging about his results, while failures like pfblog keep quiet. This is why active investing will never go away --- there's too much in human nature flogging it, while passive investing would be very much like a spam e-mail message telling you about how to Get Rich Slow.
I've been relatively sanguine about the whole affair --- not just because I'm in Munich, so I'm quite far away from all the noise. First of all, what's happening is a purely financial matter --- if all the banks went away tomorrow, companies will still get things done. Corporations still run relatively little debt, and a little bit of history will tell you that what we have here isn't even as bad as the 1987 stock market drop. The probability of another Great Depression is quite slight. I'd be much more worried if there was another world war
A review of the sample asset allocation spreadsheet I put together in late July shows a 7% drop. (This over-states the losses, since it ignores dividends and interest, but you get the point) While that wouldn't make you a happy camper, it is certainly not something to panic about. In fact, if you invest for long enough, you will have a year with a 30% drop eventually. You just don't know when. It might be this year, but it might come the day before you retire. That's why financial planning is a multi-decade process, and month-by-month posts and portfolio watching is likely to be counter-productive.
I just observed that one of my watched financial blogs pfblog has stopped updating his monthly portfolio reports since July. This is how survivorship bias works --- at this moment anyone who's been successful will be bragging about his results, while failures like pfblog keep quiet. This is why active investing will never go away --- there's too much in human nature flogging it, while passive investing would be very much like a spam e-mail message telling you about how to Get Rich Slow.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Review: Everything's Eventual
After reading Duma Key, I resolved to read more Stephen King, since I found Duma Key so much fun. So I picked up Everything's Eventual (Dead Tree edition) just before the Tour Across France.
Everything's Eventual is a collection of short stories. Nearly every genre of horror is covered, ranging from the meeting with the devil (The Man in the Black Suit) to the haunted room (1408 --- this also appeared in On Writing in draft form).
The stories are quite uneven in quality, but I found Autopsy Room Four, Everything's Eventual, and The Death of Jack Hamilton particularly good. I got my money's worth, but unfortunately, I didn't think this collection was sufficient to get me to run out and buy more King books until I am back in the US and can sample his books using the sample feature of the Kindle. Still, at $7, I got my money's worth, so a mild recommendation is in order.
Everything's Eventual is a collection of short stories. Nearly every genre of horror is covered, ranging from the meeting with the devil (The Man in the Black Suit) to the haunted room (1408 --- this also appeared in On Writing in draft form).
The stories are quite uneven in quality, but I found Autopsy Room Four, Everything's Eventual, and The Death of Jack Hamilton particularly good. I got my money's worth, but unfortunately, I didn't think this collection was sufficient to get me to run out and buy more King books until I am back in the US and can sample his books using the sample feature of the Kindle. Still, at $7, I got my money's worth, so a mild recommendation is in order.
Review: Zoe's Tale
Zoe's Tale (Kindle Edition) is the latest book in John Scalzi's Old Man's War universe, taking place concurrently with The Last Colony.
Even though Scalzi swears up and down that the book is independent of The Last Colony, I don't think it can easily be read that way --- you would miss a lot of context, and that would lead you to think that this was not a very rich universe. Scalzi agonizes a lot on his blog as to whether he got the teenage girl's voice right, and he does. But I've never been a teenage girl, so I'm not sure I'd qualify to pass that judgment.
Unfortunately, it feels a bit like that's his only goal for the entire book --- there's not a lot of additional story, and while the travails of a teenage girl in a colony who's the Chosen one is entertaining, it strays too much into Buffy territory for me, and unfortunately, Scalzi is no Joss Whedon.
If you like the previous Scalzi books, then you'll eventually pick up Zoe's tale, but I see no reason not to wait for the paperback version (well, ok, I picked up the Kindle edition).
Even though Scalzi swears up and down that the book is independent of The Last Colony, I don't think it can easily be read that way --- you would miss a lot of context, and that would lead you to think that this was not a very rich universe. Scalzi agonizes a lot on his blog as to whether he got the teenage girl's voice right, and he does. But I've never been a teenage girl, so I'm not sure I'd qualify to pass that judgment.
Unfortunately, it feels a bit like that's his only goal for the entire book --- there's not a lot of additional story, and while the travails of a teenage girl in a colony who's the Chosen one is entertaining, it strays too much into Buffy territory for me, and unfortunately, Scalzi is no Joss Whedon.
If you like the previous Scalzi books, then you'll eventually pick up Zoe's tale, but I see no reason not to wait for the paperback version (well, ok, I picked up the Kindle edition).
Conclusion
Having ridden the France, Switzerland, Austria, Germany, and Italy, I have to say that the food in France is better, but you do pay a price for it --- you sacrifice 2 hours a day of riding time at least for the food if you go for the fixed price menus that are the best value --- if you just order a plat it can take much less time. Grocery store lunches are fine, but it can be tough to find a grocery store at times.
The scenery in Switzerland and Austria is definitely better. If I were to advise a first time tourist in Europe who was reasonably fit, I would recommend that they start in Switzerland --- the food is good if you know where to go, and with Jobst's Tourof the Alps collection on-line there's no excuse for not knowing where to eat and where to stay in Switzerland. (Some day, I'll go through his logs and extract all the good places to stay and put it up in a wiki) The scenery is spectacular and the drivers very very polite. Plus the Swiss aren't too snotty to speak English to you. French drivers aren't nearly as polite and frequently drive a bit fast for the conditions, though not as badly as the Italians do.
The big problem with riding in France is the trains --- long distance trains are a nightmare as far as bringing a bike is concerned, and the German speaking countries definitely are far more accommodating of bikes on trains. I don't think there's a serious price difference between the countries.
All in all, I'm not surprised that Jobst can tour the Alps year after year for 40 years --- the Pyrenees was fun once, but my next mountain tour in Europe will definitely be in the Alps. Though Mike, Roberto and I are contemplating Japan or Taiwan. It would be nice to tour in a country where I speak the local language for a change.
The scenery in Switzerland and Austria is definitely better. If I were to advise a first time tourist in Europe who was reasonably fit, I would recommend that they start in Switzerland --- the food is good if you know where to go, and with Jobst's Tourof the Alps collection on-line there's no excuse for not knowing where to eat and where to stay in Switzerland. (Some day, I'll go through his logs and extract all the good places to stay and put it up in a wiki) The scenery is spectacular and the drivers very very polite. Plus the Swiss aren't too snotty to speak English to you. French drivers aren't nearly as polite and frequently drive a bit fast for the conditions, though not as badly as the Italians do.
The big problem with riding in France is the trains --- long distance trains are a nightmare as far as bringing a bike is concerned, and the German speaking countries definitely are far more accommodating of bikes on trains. I don't think there's a serious price difference between the countries.
All in all, I'm not surprised that Jobst can tour the Alps year after year for 40 years --- the Pyrenees was fun once, but my next mountain tour in Europe will definitely be in the Alps. Though Mike, Roberto and I are contemplating Japan or Taiwan. It would be nice to tour in a country where I speak the local language for a change.
Review: Exposure Lights Joystick Maxx
When I learned that my commute was going to be 50% unpaved, I realized that my Lumotec/Shimano generator hub combination wasn't going to cut it. Unfortunately, the cheap LED solutions such as the Cateye 301s weren't going to cut it, so I asked Pardo what he used, since he had a fancy, tiny flash-light looking thingy mounted on his bike. His answer was the Exposure Joystick Maxx.
This is a tiny light (18mm diameter), and it's light --- 80 grams! The mount is a simple U-shape mount that the light snaps into, and it claims a 3 hour run time at a 240 Lumen rating, with other modes lasting as long as 24 hours in the lowest beam, and a near infinite lifespan in flashing mode. It also comes with a helmet mount that I didn't bother to test (why mount your light further away from the ground?).
In head to head with the Lumotec light, there's no question. At maximum beam, the Joystick kicks its ass, even though it's mounted higher. At low beam, it's only as bright as the Lumotec. The beam pattern is clearly not as good, but with the overwhelming amount of light provided, it doesn't have to be to provide sufficient light off road for riding.
I then took the light on the Tour Across France. We didn't use the lights much, but it was a test as to whether the self-discharge rate of the battery was low enough that it would last 3 weeks of intermittent use. It went through the tour with flying colors, with the battery indicator indicating that there was plenty of charge left at the end of the tour.
My one big criticism of this unit is that the built-in battery is not user-replaceable. Of course, I hate that, but on the other hand, not having a separate battery pack makes this unit lighter and more compact, and that's why I bought it, so that's really not a valid criticism. It is also expensive --- $240. Then again, Dinotte charges almost as much for a light that's not as compact or as light. Recommended with the above caveats.
This is a tiny light (18mm diameter), and it's light --- 80 grams! The mount is a simple U-shape mount that the light snaps into, and it claims a 3 hour run time at a 240 Lumen rating, with other modes lasting as long as 24 hours in the lowest beam, and a near infinite lifespan in flashing mode. It also comes with a helmet mount that I didn't bother to test (why mount your light further away from the ground?).
In head to head with the Lumotec light, there's no question. At maximum beam, the Joystick kicks its ass, even though it's mounted higher. At low beam, it's only as bright as the Lumotec. The beam pattern is clearly not as good, but with the overwhelming amount of light provided, it doesn't have to be to provide sufficient light off road for riding.
I then took the light on the Tour Across France. We didn't use the lights much, but it was a test as to whether the self-discharge rate of the battery was low enough that it would last 3 weeks of intermittent use. It went through the tour with flying colors, with the battery indicator indicating that there was plenty of charge left at the end of the tour.
My one big criticism of this unit is that the built-in battery is not user-replaceable. Of course, I hate that, but on the other hand, not having a separate battery pack makes this unit lighter and more compact, and that's why I bought it, so that's really not a valid criticism. It is also expensive --- $240. Then again, Dinotte charges almost as much for a light that's not as compact or as light. Recommended with the above caveats.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Bourg-en-Bresse Rest Day
This rest day composed mostly of us riding around meeting Roberto's old friends, then coming back to the Solers' house where Roberto & Mike did some heavy lifting by moving firewood out of the yard into the garage. After that we moved into a hotel in Bourg-en-Bresse and Roberto treated everyone to a get-together dinner.
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