Ever since we visited Alamere Falls in 2022, I'd been so impressed by Wildcat Campground that I tried over and over again, succeeding only in September this year for the New Year's Eve slot. Boen wanted to go, and the weather looked reasonable --- right in between two rain storms. I posited that the easiest way to do the backpack was to actually bike down the Bear Valley trail until we weren't allowed to bike any more, then hike to the campground. We'd ridden the whole thing from Five Brooks, but the horse poop at the trailhead and the ruggedness of the ride meant that I'd be pushing the bike most of the way on the return anyway, so I might as well carry a backpack and wear it.
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
2023/2024 Point Reyes Wildcat Campground - New Year's Eve Backpack
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Review: Pixel 8 Pro
Arturo and Pengtoh have long shifted over to using smartphones for their travel photography, and I've been the last holdout. What caught my eye in 2018 was when my wife produced an absolutely fantastic picture from a Pixel 3a XL:
It was perfectly exposed, and the auto-HDR worked far better than I expected. So 2 years ago we switched entirely to the Pixel 6 for smartphone use mostly because of the camera (and also the good trade-in deals we got). But my brothers bought me a Ricoh GR3 and I kept using it, repairing it twice for damage done to it. My GR3 has had about 17000 exposures behind it and now has dust spots (easily removed by Photoshop's Context Aware Fill, but that's significant work) when stopped down past about f/11.
Over the past few years, I got frustrated by the lack of a built-in zoom on the Pixel 6, but the curved screens on the Pixel 6 Pro and Pixel 7 Pro kept me from upgrading. While I could upgrade my wife to the Pixel 7 with the outstanding Black Friday deal of 2022 ($20 + tax!), I make full use of my 256GB phones and so upgrades are neither cheap nor compelling. When I saw that the Pixel 8 series got a $100 increase in price I was pretty sure that I wasn't going to upgrade despite the now flat screen of the Pixel 8 Pro which is very tempting.
Well, two deals surfaced during the holidays that overcame my reticence. One was the 40% off retail price coupon for being a Gold status Google customer. This one was easy: switch to the 1TB tier for Google one and wait 3 days. I had plenty of Google Rewards credits and no better way to use it, so I did that. The other was the Youtube $125 coupon which stacked with the holiday $200 off promo. So we ended up with 2 Pixel 8 Pros, and the price was very good after the trade-ins for our various existing Pixels. (Google was offering the same price for the phones as they were going on Swappa, which meant that it was better to trade in the phones than to try to sell them on Craigslist!)
Google has actually improved the onboarding experience of new Android phones. Now the transfer from your old phone is wireless. The restoring of apps is dumb though ---> every app you ever installed not gets installed on your new phone, so I went through and deleted all of them. All the authenticator apps now also back up to the cloud, so you no longer have to go through and re-register every account you ever had on your 2FA app.
The first thing I notice were the quality of life issues: the fingerprint reader now worked consistently, and the face unlocked was so fast the first time my wife's phone unlocked with face recognition she thought that the security system was broken! The phone charged faster and used less power. For instance, on a 2 hour drive in the past my Pixel 6 could never charge from 20% to 80%, but now the Pixel 8 Pro will easily go to over 90% for a drive that long! Overnight when not plugged into a charger the Pixel 8 Pro no longer loses more than 5% of its battery at most, and this is with both work and personal accounts sync'd to the phone, as well as the kids' accounts. The phone is fast and smooth, and I no longer felt the need to turn off the high resolution display. I took Boen on a backcountry camping trip in Point Reyes with the phone in airplane mode. At the parking lot, the phone was at 65%. After about 24 hours of biking, hiking, and camping using the phone for photos and running the National Park Service App for maps, I returned to the parking lot with 35% of battery. That's outstanding compared with the Pixel 6 --- I did not have battery saver on, and would occasionally get out of airplane mode to see if I had reception. With the phone at 100% I'd expect to survive a 3 day backpacking trip on airplane mode and being liberal about shooting photos and videos. The bigger battery and lower power draw on the chip obviously made a big difference.
The photos, are of course, the meat and potatoes of the phone. I shot a few photos side by side with the main camera on the phone and the Ricoh GR3:
Ricoh GR3Pixel 8 Pro
Here, the Pixel 8 Pro clearly has artifacts and an artificialness not present in the GR3 shot. But it's still competitive and the 5x lens grants a better composition. Next, let's compare a cropped GR3 shot to the uncropped 5x Pixel 8 Pro lens.
Ricoh GR3 CroppedPixel 8 Pro 5x Telephoto
Monday, January 22, 2024
Review: Built
Built is Roma Agrawal's book on civil engineering. It won several awards so I started it with fairly high hopes. The book is written in modern "creative non-fiction" style, with lots of personal interjections into various parts of the exposition, which irritated me quite a bit. Do I really care about your initial impressions of your fiance or what you decided to wear while I'm learning about how the Romans used cement?
A lot of the parts of this book are not surprisingly covered better in the great courses series Engineering Lessons and the Lessons they teach
Friday, January 19, 2024
Review: Steam Deck OLED
My brothers bought me a Steam Deck OLED as a birthday present. I remember playing the heck out of the PS Vita back when I bought one, and a device that has access to my entire collection of PC games was exciting.
The worst thing about the Steam Deck is the compatibility. The device runs Linux instead of Windows, and is meant as a platform to sell steam games. I don't have a big steam backlog, and in fact, most of the games I own are on Epic Games due to the large giveaway library. To my surprise, both Epic and GOG installed nicely by my brother functioned really well, to the point where I could play The Witcher 3 and Rise of the Tomb Raider (as well as the original) and to me when I launch both games there's no distinction between them. Other libraries, however (EA Connect and Ubisoft Connect) did not install no matter what I did and time spent tinkering with them was a total waste of time. What's worse, the initial installs of Arkham Asylum and Arkham City failed as well! My brother had to tinker with it, installing different compatibility libraries and in the case of Arkham Asylum deleting and redownloading it to work. My Windows PC has its share of compatibility problems, but not to this extent! For instance, XCOM-2 ran, but I couldn't make a single move!
Cloud saves on Epic Games and GOG didn't work either, so in all cases I had to restart games from scratch. Maybe this is to be expected, but if the device had run Windows I bet it wouldn't have all these problems. (Valve promises that some day they will have fully supported Windows drivers --- I'm not holding my breath --- what incentive do they have to make that work?!!)
The games that work, work well. I happily played The Witcher 3 and Tomb Raider ran well and had an immersive experience. So did the Batman games, once my brother got it running for me. Obviously any of the weaker games (like Braid) would just work as well. Bluetooth audio connect to my Pixel Buds Pro worked well, and with no discernible latency, which was impressive. One interesting glitch is that the device is very aggressive about awake from sleep. If I pulled out the Pixel Buds Pro within pairing distance of the Steam Deck, it would wake up from sleep! I eventually turned off the Steam Deck completely so as to avoid that.
The battery life was much less impressive. You can get about 120 minutes of either of the triple A titles mentioned above. When connected to the 65w powerbank, you can nearly get through a 6 hour coast to coast flight. That's probably good enough --- my Pixel Buds Pro wouldn't make it past that anyway!
All in all, this is the device that will get me buying games on Steam again. Well done!
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Review: The Death of Chaos
The Death of Chaos continues the saga of Recluce with Lerris' contribution and the end of Justen's story. If you've paid any attention to the magic system behind the series, you'll know that the Death of Chaos automatically also means the Death of Order as well. The story once again revolves around an invasion from an empire, and Lerris's increasingly desperate and costly effort to fend them off.
One interesting piece is that the technology we saw at the start of the novel is no longer unique to Recluce, and other states have started manufacturing steam ships and ironsides warships as well. Lerris gets very annoying in parts because of how obtuse he is about other people's reactions to his actions, but by and large he's still a very likable character, and has hobbies other than saving the world, which is unusual in this type of adventure story.
The ending is really sad, as with other Recluce novels --- the cost of being able to keep your independence is very high. The book is a bit of a doorstop, taking me a long time to finish but at no point did I feel like I was going to stop reading it. Recommended.
Wednesday, January 17, 2024
Long Term Review: Anker Battery/USB Adapter for Resmed AirMini
I used my new Anker Powerbank with converter cable on this past sailing trip. While not a certified CPAP device, it operated with extreme reliability. Even better, the Katja had USB outlets in the cabin that operated even when the boat was sailing and the generator wasn't running! My routine for the days on the sailboat were to wake up, immediately unplug the battery to the CPAP after syncing it to my phone, and plug the battery into the USB outlet to let it trickle charge. By noon, the battery would be full.
I didn't need to use the battery to power any other devices, but in theory, I could have done so. In addition, I wasn't carrying the dedicated charger that could only be used to charge the Pilot-24. The battery performance was also superior --- at no point did I drain it past 50%, so I could have survived 2 nights on the Anker battery if I needed to.
When traveling to places where I have wall power, I pair this with the Anker 715 Nano II 65w charger. This saves no weight compared to carrying the dedicated AirMini charger, but unlike the dedicated AirMini charger, the Anker charger can be used to charge any other USB-C compatible device, so it serves two purposes!
This is clearly a superior option to what I was using before and I can recommend it without reservations.
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Review: Fenix 7 Pro Sapphire Solar
Through a series of unlikely events, I managed to snare a Fenix 7 Pro Sapphire Solar at an excellent price. Given that I had also gotten a Garmin Edge 840 recently, I no longer felt obliged to get the biggest screen possible, so I went for the 47mm version of the watch, which is smaller while not being as small as the S. It fits perfectly and is lighter. Unlike in the past, where the X series usually has additional features not on the other sizes of watch, for the 7 Pro series all watches have the same feature. The difference is in size, weight and battery life. I did not opt for the Epix series because there were reports that in cycling mode the display would turn itself dim.
The number of new metrics available on the Fenix 7 Pro that didn't exist on the 5X is substantial. First, you get a training readiness metric that you didn't use to get. Unlike in the past Fenixes, this seems actually accurate. I had a stressful trip and it told me that my body was strained and that i should back off from serious activities.
Monday, January 15, 2024
Review: The Curious Human Knee
The Curious Human Knee is a book about the knee. I borrowed it from the library expecting to learn about the knee's architecture, why they are so easily damaged, and how to prevent injury and what the process of fixing a damaged knee is. Instead I got a curious mis-mash of knee information and weird fashion segmentations. The author feels like she suffered from a case of ADHD, jumping from one random topic to another.
I've long thought that the human knee was a particularly good example of poor engineering. Han Yu instead explains that the reason the knee is so easily damaged is because it's so flexible and offers so many degrees of freedom of movement:
Dynamic freedom comes at a terrible cost. The knee is flexible because it is fundamentally unstable. It is, essentially, a few pieces of rigid, ill-fitting bones bound up by rope-like soft tissues. Nothing is fused in place, so the knee can move in just about any direction. For the same reason, it can also twist, misalign, overstretch, or simply fall apart. (kindle loc 508)
Ok, so what can we do? She mentions that there are training programs that can help prevent injury:
In one program, female high-school volleyball players were drilled in various jumping tasks: broad jump, vertical jump, single-legged jump, squat jump, and more.98 The emphasis was placed on maintaining good techniques: keep the spine erect and shoulders back, point the knees forward, jump with the chest over knees, and land softly with bent knees and toe-to-heel rocking. After six weeks of training, the participants were able to reduce valgus collapse stress by about 50 percent, increase hamstring power by up to 44 percent, and reduce landing force by 22 percent.99 In another successful program, female soccer players completed, among other things, leg stretching, jumping tasks, and strengthening exercises.100 Similar emphasis was put on correct landing techniques. Compared with soccer players in the same league who did not enroll in the program, those who were enrolled saw an 88 percent reduction in ACL injury in the first season and 74 percent reduction in the second season. (kindle loc 1826)
Details? How to do it yourself? Nada. That kinda sucks. She does debunk several myths. For instance, icing does nothing, and neither do prophylactic braces. In fact, both might cause more problems:
Compared with using a stationary bike to cool down, immersing legs in cold water after strength training reduced muscle mass and strength.34 Researchers have speculated that this is because muscle protein synthesis depends on blood supply, and icing, by reducing blood supply, suppresses protein synthesis. In other words, icing can negate the benefits of exercise and reduce long-term muscle development, quite the opposite outcome for people who ice for sports recovery. (kindle loc 2506)
prophylactic braces were not able to reduce knee injuries; in fact, they seemed to make players more likely to hurt themselves.81 Alarmed, the American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Sports Medicine issued a statement in 1990 recommending that these braces “not be considered standard equipment for football players.”82 (kindle loc 2709)
Then suddenly the book would switch into a discussion of skirt length and fashion. It would then come back and tell you interesting things about Osteo-Arthritis:
Despite their relatively lower body mass index, Asian populations have more knee OA than Western populations.58 In Malaysia, for example, an estimated 25 percent of people over the age of fifty-five suffer from knee OA.59 In Korea, 38 percent of people over the age of sixty-five do. (kindle loc 3488)
It turns out that many Asian cultures do a lot of kneeling, and that's not good for your knee. The book then jumps back into fashion and discusses ripped jeans and other distressed clothing that are part of fashion nowadays. Sure, I'm concerned about the environmental impact of fashion and the irony of rich people wearing clothes that are deliberately made to look worn out (my wife had to tell me to throw out swim shorts because they were starting to develop holes in all the wrong places), but does that really belong in this book?
I really wanted to like this book, but I think in this case the author needed a much better editor than the one she had.
Friday, January 12, 2024
Review: Garmin Edge 840
The Pro's Closet had open box Edge 840 for under $300 before Black Friday, and at that price it was too good to resist. The big feature that I wanted that's not available on the Fenix 5X is Freeride Climb Pro, which Garmin has said that it will not bring to watches because the watches have to deal with runners and Freeride Climb Pro is just too hard to do for runners. The other feature is that it now charges via USB-C, which saves one more cable type to bring (though unfortunately most of my bike lights are still micro-USB, so I can't avoid having a few adapters when I travel with the bike)
Ok, coming from using my Fenix 5X as a bike computer, the Edge 840 feels like it's a giant screen. Garmin has also revamped its UI, so you get choices between Road, Gravel, Commute, MTB. In addition, the Edge 840 has both buttons and touch screen, and I found myself using both UIs! The map display is excellent, and Garmin no longer tries to rip you off by charging for European maps if you happen to buy a US unit.
The 32GB storage is not enough to store both US maps and European maps at the same time! I was quite disappointed by that. Storage is cheap, and you would think that Garmin would take $10 out of its profit margins to give me both US and European maps at the same time. The nice thing is that Garmin with its new UI can now display graphs, so you can get a nice climbing graph or power meter graph.
Climb Pro behaves as I expect, giving you its best guess as to what hill I'm going to ride, and despite some friends telling me it wasn't accurate, it seemed to work just fine for my favorite hills. For grins I tried the structured workout mode and it told me after the workout that I did a horrible job of complying with the workout.
I rarely follow routes, but when I tried it as an experiment, whenever I go off route (which I invariably do) the UI now gives me an option to pause navigation (if you know where you're going) or to route back onto the route. Sweet!
Charging is fast, and battery life is good enough that I never have to charge it more than once a week. Syncing to Garmin connect is fast as well, and it brings over all the sensors from my old Fenix 5X no problem, including HRMs, speed sensors, cadence sensors, etc. Stay within the Garmin ecosystem and everything works great.
Startup is also superfast. I can no longer play the game of starting up the computer and taking off at rocket speed to keep the GPS confused for as long as possible. All in all, it's a great device and I'm looking forward to touring with it!
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Review: Democracy Awakening
Democracy Awakening is Heather Cox Richardson's history book with an emphasis on recent history (from 2016 to 2022) and a deep perspective on American history and context. The recent history part of the book is a good reminder of how quickly Trump moved to consolidate power and try to dismantle democracy and delegitimize elections, and how he quickly used the authoritarian playbook to great effect:
Trump purged officials who accepted the findings of the Intelligence Community from his administration. He replaced Director of National Intelligence Dan Coates, a well-regarded former Republican senator who maintained that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election. Trump also fired Attorney General Jeff Sessions, replacing him first with Sessions’s loyalist chief of staff, Matthew Whitaker, who became acting attorney general without Senate confirmation, and then with William Barr, who had been President George H. W. Bush’s attorney general when Bush pardoned those involved in the Iran-Contra scandal. Barr took office on February 14, 2019, just as Mueller was finishing his report. Before letting anyone else see it, Barr spun the document as a complete exoneration of the president. The media repeated his misstatement. In fact, Mueller’s report established that Russia had illegally intervened in the election to benefit Trump and that the campaign “expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts.” Mueller publicly complained to Barr about the spin he had put on the report, but it was too late: Trump crowed that he was exonerated, and his supporters not only bought it, they accepted it as proof that the institutions of government were persecuting their president. Barr then appointed his own investigator, John Durham, to prove that it was Ukraine, not Russia, that had hacked the election (the investigation closed in 2022 without any proof of those allegations).[10] Republican lawmakers helped Trump’s disinformation campaign, using their positions to mislead the public and legitimize his lies. House Republicans, especially those in the right-wing Freedom Caucus, along with a bloc of right-wing senators, backed the president. Since the Republicans controlled the Senate, their chairing of key committees helped them legitimize his allegations. Senators Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Charles E. Grassley of Iowa, and Rand Paul of Kentucky echoed Trump in calling for investigations of Democrats. (kindle loc 1612)
The look back into history further away from the present day presents some much needed optimism. The history of the American republic has been one of imperfect equality and ideals, but also that the citizenry does eventually opt for freedom over oligarchic rule. She points out that the arguments used by right-wingers have always been used by slaveholders to deny women or black people the vote, and it's always been the task of ordinary people to fight back:
it is ordinary Americans like Harriet Beecher Stowe turning her grief for her dead eighteen-month-old son into the story of why no mother’s child should be sold away from her; Rose Herera suing her former enslaver for custody of her own children; Julia Ward Howe demanding the right to vote so her abusive husband could not control her life any longer; Sitting Bull defending the right of the Lakota to practice their own new religion, even if he did not believe in it; Saum Song Bo telling The New York Sun that he was insulted by their request for money to build a pedestal for the Statue of Liberty when, three years before, the country had excluded people like him; Dr. Héctor GarcÃa realizing that Mexican Americans needed to be able to vote in order to protect themselves; Edward Roberts claiming the right to get an education despite his physical paralysis; Stormé DeLarverie, the drag king who was identified with the first punch at the Stonewall riot that jump-started the gay rights movement. (kindle loc 2418)
Much of the description of the pre-civil war era sounds very familiar:
To maintain their power, southern leaders made common cause with southern men who defended local government, and for whom opposition to the federal government had become the core of their political identity. In the 1840s, when northern leaders began to try to stop the expansion of slavery through federal law, southern white leaders insisted that such action was an attack on democracy, which they were coming to define as states’ rights. By the 1850s, southern leaders had narrowed that definition of democracy even further. They insisted that the Framers had never intended for democracy to mean that voters got to influence policy; they could merely vote to change their leaders. Indeed, they argued, the Framers had set up the system so that it could never come under the sway of a mob. Federal lawmakers could do nothing that was not explicitly enumerated in the Constitution; the Framers had limited the government so it could do nothing but protect property. Even if an overwhelming majority of Americans wanted the government to do something more expansive, it could not...Leaders outlawed possession of books and pamphlets that questioned the slave system—those that urged solidarity among poor white men as well as those challenging enslavement—and they provoked violence against those they called agitators. By closing off access to factual information, enslavers could use the media, churches, society, and politics to spread their worldview first in the South and then nationally. Their worldview was taking over the country. In the 1850s, Southern elites who controlled the government of their states took over first the Democratic Party and then, through it, the Senate—where each state had two seats regardless of population—and the White House. Control of those two institutions meant they also took control of the Supreme Court. (kindle loc 2818-2828)
The book is a quick and easy read, and provides much perspective on the chaos of the present day. It's going to be a very uncomfortable next few years, but despair never provides any solutions, and Richardson's book provides a much needed reminder that it is possible to fight for democracy and a government of the people, by the people, and for the people:
In 1858, rising politician Abraham Lincoln told an audience: “I ask you in all soberness, if all these things, if indulged in, if ratified, if confirmed and endorsed, if taught to our children, and repeated to them, do not tend to rub out the sentiment of liberty in the country, and to transform this Government into a government of some other form. Those arguments . . . are the arguments that kings have made for enslaving the people in all ages of the world. . . . Whether it come from the mouth of a King, an excuse for enslaving the people of his country, or from the mouth of men of one race as a reason for enslaving the men of another race, it is all the same old serpent.” (kindle loc 2789)
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Review: Garmin Rally XC200 Pedals
Tuesday, January 09, 2024
2023 Bahamas - What I learned
Someone during the trip told me that Bahamas comes from the Spanish phrase "Baja mar", shallow sea. And this trip definitely highlighted that. There were many places on the chart that said: "shifting sands", meaning that the chart was unreliable and you shouldn't keep going. Similarly, this was the only trip I've been on where I've actually had to change direction during a channel crossing when I realized that the bottom was too shallow. Couple that with tides and unusually difficult anchoring and harbor entrances and this is definitely not a sailing location a beginner should visit.
The snorkeling on Sandy Cay was nothing short of amazing, as was Snake Cay, which surprisingly was hardly mentioned in the guide or chart briefing! Mermaid Reef was meh, and the wrecks near Rat Cay were ok. Fish Hotel was definitely a disappointment, as was witch point. We discovered that Fowl Cay is probably a summer/late spring destination, as all mooring balls described in the book were missing and the surface so rough that the dingy was taking on water. That was probably why the local dive outfit wanted $1200 for a visit!
This visit completely destroyed my view of the Bahamas. I thought that it was a popular cruise ship destination, and that the place would be crowded and full of parties. I don't know how much of the Abacos was popular before Dorian, but years after Dorian it's clear that cruise ships don't visit the area, and the sailing is so challenging that 5 boats at Sandy Cay constitutes a crowd. We saw plenty of sail boats, but it's nowhere as crowded as the BVIs, and nobody even tried to anchor near us in a crowded anchorage or in an anchorage where there was only room for one, indicating that most of the sailors knew what they were doing.
I'm curious as to what the rest of the Bahamas is like and whether it's quite different from what we experienced. On the other hand, as skipper the Bahamas isn't quite a chill-out experience so you'd pretty much have to have your act together all the time. The water is cooler which made mosquitoes less of a problem but when the wind dies you get biting gnats which can be just as bad!
All in all, when I think back about it this was a very good trip. While we backtracked more than necessary and wasted time at bad places, we made very good decisions such as not staying at Little Harbor overnight. We probably should have spent more time at Hope Town and Snake Cay, and I should have pre-planned the route on the dinghy tour at Snake Cay better, but all in all we had a great time!
Monday, January 08, 2024
Review: The Delusions of Crowds
The Delusions of Crowds is the latest book by William Bernstein, a retired neurosurgeon turned financial advisor with some success. The book covers both religious delusions and financial delusions. Bernstein, of course, is very credible when it comes to financial delusions, from the housing bubble to the dot com bubble, to Enron's collapse. I wish he'd write an addendum covering the crypto insanity that's obviously full of fraud, though maybe Molly White has it covered well enough.
The religious delusions are, believe it or not, quite new to me, despite having grown up in a methodist mission school that couldn't wait to propagate hell-fire-and-damnation, anti-D&D propaganda, as well as telling growing kids that Star Wars was evil because Yoda's explication of the force was inspired by Zen Buddhism. (Growing up surrounded by Buddhists, the school's religious authorities lost their credibility with me on that last bit --- I've had a deep suspicion of the Abrahamic religions ever since)
What the book taught me that I didn't know is the prevalence of the dispensation Christianity end times narrative, with a large number of the religious right having bought into it. If you've ever wondered why the most anti-semitic population on the far right nevertheless are such strong supporters of Israel, this is why:
The current polarization of American society cannot be fully understood without a working knowledge of the above dispensationalist narrative, which strikes the majority of well-educated citizens with a secular orientation as bizarre. In contrast, for a significant minority of Americans, this sequence of prophesized events is as familiar as Romeo and Juliet or The Godfather, and the appeal of televangelists such as Jerry Falwell, Jim Bakker, and Jimmy Swaggart rest solidly on their dispensationalist credentials...The centrality of Israel, and particularly the rebuilding of the Temple, to this belief system has profoundly affected U.S. Middle East policy. Uncritical American support for Israel’s expansion of West Bank settlement and its apparent abandonment of a two-state solution can be traced directly to the advocacy of evangelicals, so-called Christian Zionists, who now exert far more influence than Jewish Zionists. Indeed, the opening and closing benedictions at the May 2018 dedication of the new U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem were given by two dispensationalist ministers. One of them, Robert Jeffress, once claimed that Hitler had helped plan the Jew’s return to Israel; and the other, John Hagee, had deemed Hurricane Katrina God’s punishment for New Orleans’s sinfulness. (kindle loc 228, 234)
The book covers the start of the dispensationist religious movement, its roots in Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, various Christian sects (including that of David Kouresh), and of course, Islamic extremism, which is the mirror image of Christian extremism:
Given that the roots of apocalypticism are found in both the New and Old Testaments, and likely have earlier roots in Fertile Crescent polytheism, it is not surprising that the doomsday scripts of both extremist Israeli Jews and the Islamic State have more than a passing resemblance to that of Christian dispensationalists, differing only in who plays the heroes and who plays the heavies. Today’s Muslim apocalypticists almost uniformly consider Jews to be the Antichrist, and the remarkable ability of the Islamic State to attract recruits from around the world to the killing fields of Syria and Iraq rested in no small part on an end-times narrative drawn directly from the hadith, the sayings of Muhammad. (kindle loc 254)
Some of the earlier dispensationalist works actually predicted the creation of the state of Israel, which obviously makes their other random prophecies sound more likely to be true. The author does point out several examples of cases where end-times prophecies failed, and the so-called prophets doubled down multiple times over several years only to be discredited at the end, so not all end-times prophets get what they want:
The dispensationalists had already identified two occurrences that would mark the end of this hiatus and the resumption of time and God’s renewed attention to the Jews, and so bring about the end-times: the return of the Jews to the Holy Land and the reassembly of the Roman Empire into the Antichrist-led European ten-nation confederation. While Darby left behind dozens of volumes, his unreadable prose confined his readership to a small core of literate and determined true believers. On the other hand, not only did Anderson’s prose go down like fine claret, but his accurate prediction of the return of the Jews to Palestine in The Coming Prince electrified his later twentieth-century readers...Even today, Anderson’s prediction of the restoration of the Jewish nation in Palestine astounds. The same, alas, cannot be said of his prophecy of a renewed Roman Empire, which has embarrassed Christian fundamentalist prophecy ever since. For example, a century and a half after Richard Graves identified the post-1815 rise of European constitutional monarchies as the new Roman Empire, dispensationalists would do the same for the European Union, which has thus far failed to produce the Antichrist or form a strategic alliance with Israel, let alone invade it. (kindle loc 4759, 4771)
You might be tempted to believe that this type of fantasy is restricted to the kooky far right, but the book points out several republican presidents actually appeal to the people who believe this stuff:
President George W. Bush’s address to the nation announcing military action in Afghanistan on October 7, 2001 nicely illustrated this divide. To the secular ear, it struck a tolerant, anodyne tone almost devoid of religious content, and mentioned Islam only in terms of American open-armed acceptance of and good wishes toward its nearly two billion adherents. Evangelical listeners, on the other hand, heard a rather different message in phrases such as “lonely path” (Isaiah), “killers of innocents” (Matthew), and “there can be no peace” (Jeremiah, Ezekiel, Chronicles, Isaiah) that suggested the wrath of a Judeo-Christian God. Religious scholar Bruce Lincoln observed that such phrases were “plainly audible to portions of his audience who are attentive to such phrasing, but likely to go unheard by those without the requisite textual knowledge.”540 Bush’s speech was a loud and piercing dog whistle; as put by Christianity Today after Lincoln published those words, “Sadly, we’ll no longer be able to secretly nod and wink to each other as Bush talks.”541 (Bush himself is noticeably silent regarding dispensationalist beliefs; officially a Methodist, most observers classify him as mainline Protestant.)542 The prevalence of the dispensationalist delusion in the United States also separates this country from the rest of the developed world, and carries with it the potential for catastrophe. (kindle loc 5487)
This book was published in February 2021, more than 2 years before the Oct 7th atrocities committed by Hamas. Ordinarily you would expect Americans to not care (Israel has no oil, neither does Palestine), but the book clearly points out that even as far back as Jerry Falwell's time, there was a religious movement to support the Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank:
Asked why Israel had the right to occupy Gaza and the West Bank, he answered simply, “God said so.”596 The piece ended with Falwell, who remarked, There are about 200,000 evangelical pastors in America, and we’re asking them all through e-mail, faxes, letters, telephone, to go into their pulpits and use their influence in support of Israel and the prime minister.597 No one, though, exemplifies the shift of fundamentalist influence onto the potentially cataclysmic arena of geopolitics as does Pat Robertson, whom diplomat and journalist Michael Lind labeled “the single most important purveyor of crackpot conspiracy theories in the history of American politics.” (kindle loc 5827)
Why are Americans so susceptible to religious crackpot theories and conspiracy stories? Bernstein doesn't hesitate to point out that the Americans are easily the worst educated of developed nations, and unlike our closest analogues, the British, we do not supply educational public programming as a counter-weight to the entertainment industry. So our public is particularly ill-informed:
The United States consistently ranks near the bottom of developed nations for the OECD’s PISA international educational evaluations, and when compared with the citizens of other developed nations, Americans know depressingly little about both their own country and the rest of the world. The latest PISA cycle, completed in 2015, showed American students ranked fortieth, well behind the likes of Slovenia, Poland, Vietnam, Russia, Portugal, and Italy, let alone top scorers like Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea.618 A study from 1994 throws this problem into sharp relief: fully 37 percent of Americans got all of five representative basic facts about the world wrong, versus only 3 percent of Germans. (Of Spaniards, 32 percent got all five wrong; of Mexicans, 28 percent; of Canadians, 27 percent; of French, 23 percent; of British, 22 percent; and of Italians, 18 percent.) Italians and Germans who didn’t attend college outscored Americans who did...“American television is noteworthy for the cognitive busyness of its jump cuts, advertisements, and staccato style, and cognitive busyness makes it harder for some people to absorb information.” The authors dryly noted that American researchers are “generally reluctant to ask too many factual questions for fear of embarrassing the respondents, who might terminate the interview or become too flustered to answer other questions.” This may explain why the Germans did so well, since they were far more likely to be regular newspaper readers than those in the other six nations studied...In the United States, the media’s mission centers more on entertainment than education, whereas Scandinavian governments vigorously support high-quality news and informational programming. The U.K., which possesses both a prestigious and well-endowed public news outlet, the BBC, and a prosperous private media sector, occupies a position midway between the United States and Scandinavian nations....the knowledge gap between Americans of high and low educational status was much larger than in the other three nations studied: A poorly educated Briton, Dane, or Finn knows far more about the world around them than a poorly educated American.623 It’s hard to escape the conclusion that the poorly educated in the United States, relative to those in other countries, are uniquely susceptible to dispensationalist narratives that even the most educationally disadvantaged in the rest of the developed world resist because of their better grasp of everyday facts. (kindle loc 5962, 5972, 5983, 5988)
What's worse, in recent years, evangelicals have increasingly had a prominent role in America's military as well as political establishments.
You might be wondering why I put so much emphasis on the religious delusion part of the book, as opposed to the financial delusions. Well, the financial delusions (such as bitcoin or cryptocurrency) might cost you to lose your money and your retirement, but it's unlikely to destroy the world. The end-times delusion, however, can easily cause people to believe that it's their religious duty to bring about the end times, and of course, our modern technology allows us to bring about the end times through nuclear or other means. I'm surprised that this book doesn't get more attention, but that's probably because of Bernstein's writing style --- he is turgid and never uses short words when he can use long ones, and I believe the financial delusions part of the book fully dilutes the impact of the warnings he brings about religious delusions. After all, the dot com bubble collapse did gift us a ton of dark fiber that was later put to use by Google and follow-on companies. But there can be no recovery from an end-times plan put into action by religious people believe themselves to be doing God's work.
I consider this book important and well worth reading. It explains much in American politics as well as America's attitude towards Israel amongst the far right.
Friday, January 05, 2024
2023 Bahamas: Nov 27th Man O'War Cay to Marsh Harbor
The wind shifted overnight and was now blowing from the West instead of the East. This killed any hopes of sailing back as it would mean tacking back and forth using up a ton of time. Arturo, Marcie, Bowen and I elected to swim to shore (I'd talked Bowen into doing it by betting him $100 on a race with him wearing fins and me without --- I lost)
, and there, Arturo blew the conch one last time.Turning on the engine, we weighed anchor and headed straight against the wind towards Marsh Harbor, encountering rain and seeing a rainbow for the first time on the trip.It kept raining all the way into Marsh Harbor and the wind strengthened. At the fuel dock, it must have been blowing 20 knots! I struggled to place the boat just saw, and the crew of Navigare Yatchting watched me harbor until the man in charge took pity on me, and boarded the boat and took over, revving the motor into red line to back the boat into the wind while the Katja pivoted against the dock just like I'd been taught in my certification class. I was no longer in charge and I could pack!
Thursday, January 04, 2024
Review: Remember
Remember is Lisa Genova's book about memory. What hurts it is that I've read about most of the topics she covers in various other neuropsychology books (e.g., the need to do spaced repetition in order to learn something permanently, the unreliability of eyewitnesses, the difference between episodic memory and flashbulb memory). I'd say that what distinguishes this book from other books is that (1) it's short, and (2) there's an emphasis on practical ways to help yourself remember what you want to remember, and (3) there's also short sections about forgetting stuff you want to forget.
One interesting titbit is that if you're blocked and forgotten a word ("tip of the tongue" situation), it's OK to use Google find blocked words:
Many people worry that if they use Google to find their blocked words, then they’re contributing to the problem and actually worsening their already-weakening memory. They consider Google a high-tech crutch that’s going to ruin their memories. This belief is misinformed. Looking up the name of the actor who played Tony Soprano doesn’t weaken my memory’s ability whatsoever. Similarly, suffering through the mental pain and insisting on coming up with the word on my own doesn’t make my memory stronger or come with any trophies for my doing so. You don’t have to be a memory martyr. You are not more likely to experience fewer TOTs, resolve future TOTs faster, better remember where you put your keys, remember to take your heart medication tonight, or prevent Alzheimer’s if you can retrieve Tony Soprano’s name without Google. (kindle loc 1324)
Similarly, her practical advise about prospective memory (intention to do something) is to just use checklists as an aid, as well as cues (e.g., put the stuff you need to remember in front of the door so you literally have to trip over it to forget it as you leave your home) The advise to forget something is basically "don't keep repeating the story of your painful incident or it'll be seared into your memory --- don't talk about it other people, and don't ruminate on it!" Hm... That's probably much harder advice to follow than to give.
Practical advise about avoid dementia and Alzheimers are pretty straightforward: eat a mediterranean diet, exercise, and sleep well, and get plenty of vitamin D.
Aerobic exercise has been associated with a significantly reduced risk of dementia in many human studies, and it decreases amyloid levels in animal models of the disease. Exercise improves sleep (it decreases the time it takes to fall asleep, increases the quality of sleep, and decreases the number of times you wake up in the night). And as described earlier, sleep improves normal memory and reduces your risk of Alzheimer’s. Even a daily brisk walk has been correlated with a 40 percent decreased risk of Alzheimer’s. That’s not a small impact. Exercise works. (kindle loc 2325)
Another interesting thing she notes is that building a cognitive reserve doesn't mean stuff like sudoku and crosswords. You actually have to learn new skills:
Building up a cognitive reserve doesn’t mean doing crossword puzzles. There is no compelling evidence that doing puzzles or brain-training exercises does anything to decrease your risk of Alzheimer’s. You’ll improve at doing crosswords, but you’re not building a bigger, Alzheimer’s-resistant brain. You don’t want to simply retrieve information you’ve already learned, because this type of mental exercise is like traveling down old, familiar streets, cruising neighborhoods you already know. You want to pave new neural roads. Building an Alzheimer’s-resistant brain through cognitive stimulation means learning to play piano, meeting new friends, traveling to a new city, or reading this book (kindle loc 2352)
All in all, the book is short, easy to read, and practical. I'm not sure you can find a higher recommendation than that!
Wednesday, January 03, 2024
2023 Bahamas - Nov 26th: Anna Cay to Man O'War Cay
I got up at 5:30, cooked and ate a quick breakfast, and hurried to grab the
paddleboard before the kids got hold of it. It turned out I didn't have to
worry --- they were feeling too lazy to fight me for it. I paddleboarded around
the area, visiting houses along the shore as well as Ana Cay, where a huge
mansion was under construction with piers already there marked
"Private".
The plan today was to visit Fowl Cay and make another attempt to snorkel there. The book listed no less than 16 mooring balls, with 6 of them marked missing to give the air of confidence. We started motoring and then realized that the wind had stiffened to about 15 knots, which meant we could sail! As we sailed we passed Man O' War Cay and started scouting locations to spend the night.
Anchoring at Fowl Cay, things looked promising as there were already two
Catamarans anchor'd out there. The dive checked felt good as well, there was
still surge but nowhere as bad as what we felt a few days earlier.
Getting out the dinghy, we loaded everyone and the snorkel gear into the
dinghy, coaxing the kids as well. We turned the corner on the island after
passing all the anchor'd Catamarans and discovered that the waves were still so
high that the dinghy started taking on water. We looked for mooring balls but
didn't see any. Eventually we took on so much water that we gave up and turned
around. One of the other Catamarans had weighed anchor and was leaving, but at
the other one which looked like they had a professional crew, they told us that
all the mooring balls were gone. "You have to go all the way out to the
reef where the big waves are and drop a dinghy anchor. If you wait, we'll go
out there and you can follow us." We didn't have a bailer so we had to go
to the Katja to get bucket out to bail the dinghy sufficiently to the point
where we could get it onto the davits! We were discouraged, as it didn't seem
like it would be safe to do this even with a professional crew out there to
mark the way. I also had no confidence in the dinghy's puny anchor holding up
against the surge.
The kids were elated as they had decided they didn't enjoy snorkeling. We
raised the dinghy, taking the time to drain it out as much as possible while we
debated what to do. We still had time to go to Snake Cay or Sandy Cay, but that
wouldn't leave much time. We were all pretty tired. I proposed we visited the
main town (XXX) in Man O'War Cay. It being a Sunday everything would be closed,
but there was a path to the Atlantic side where we could take a look.
The habor entrance was incredibly narrow, requiring precise alignment with
the "No Wake" sign inside the harbor. There were no depth concerns as
the approach was deep, but this was not something for a novice --- fortunately
in my youth, docking in narrow Sausalito slips in difficult conditions at night
on a monohull had given me confidence.
We made it into the harbor, picked up a mooring ball, ate lunch, and then
dropped the dinghy for a visit. This town was nowhere near as picturesque as
Hope Town, but there was a street to the Atlantic, and we took it. Once again,
we had the beach all to ourselves, walking the length of it and back. The town
had a big shipbuilding business, and had been one for more than a couple of
centuries.
After the walk, we made the call to just anchor in the northern most cove
of Man O'War Cay, where we had seen a beautiful beach at the narrowest point
ono the island. It looked like it could be a good place to spend our last
evening with a Beam Reach back to Marsh Harbor to return Katja the next day,
There were 3 other boats anchor'd out at DIckie's Bay, but there was nothing in
that location to do, so we opted for the difficult cove instead.
I noticed that the other side of Man 'O War Cay was marked with reefs. "Maybe it'll be good snorkeling there!" Katie and Mark went first, swimming to the beach and then walking over. By the time I got to the beach, Mark had scoped it out. "No good. Surge too much and there's really nothing to see." We settled in for some relaxation. Boen first paddleboarded to shore, then Bowen did. There was a bunch of shells that had been polished and left in the shelter straddling the Atlantic and the Sea of Abacos. One of them could be blown like a trumpet and Boen succeeded in doing so.
Once Bowen heard about that ashore he decided he would paddle to shore and pick up the conch to bring home. He actually succeeded in doing so but not without help from Arturo. The wind and waves were just strong enough to make maneuvering and pointing the paddleboard challenging.
We all made the best of our last full day, relaxing and eating the rest of the food aboard. We started sorting out all the stuff in the salon according to who owned what and started backing up photos to the laptop we had brought for that purpose.
Tuesday, January 02, 2024
2023 Bahamas Index Page
From November 18th to Nov 27th, we chartered a 42' Lagoon named Katja in the Abacos, Bahamas for an 8 day sailing cruise. It was our first time in the area, and my first time in the Bahamas for any reason whatsoever. This is the index page for the day to day travelogues as well as photographs, thoughts and various equipment reviews.
- November 18th: Prologue
- November 19th: Conch Inn Marina to Baker's Bay, Great Guana Cay
- November 20th: Baker's Bay, Great Guana Cay to Rat Cay
- November 21st: Rat Cay to Coco Bay, Green Turtle Cay
- November 22nd: Coco Bay to Mermaid Reef, Great Abaco Island
- November 23rd: Mermaid Reef to Snake Cay
- November 24th: Snake Cay to Lynyard Cay
- November 25th: Lynyard Cay to Anna Cay
- November 26th: Anna Cay to Man O'War Cay
- November 27th: Man O'War Cay to Marsh Harbor