Review: The Fourth Turning Is Here

 The Fourth Turning Is Here is a rehash of Neil Howe and William Strauss' classic book of cliodynamics, Generations. Howe & Strauss has one very appealing theory, which is that American History is driven by the four stroke cycles of 4 archetypical generations. The reason for this 4 stroke cycle is that each generation of adults parent in an opposing style from the way they were raised, which drives the dominant personality type of each successive generation.

It's clear that in this book, Howe has refined his thinking and come up with good names for each archetype: Prophet (the Boomers), Nomad (Gen X), Hero (Millenials), and Artist (post-Millenials). He points out that this sort of cycle has been seen over and over in pre-American history as well:

First, the dynasty is born in a crisis moment of invasion or rebellion; second, it grows and strengthens; third, it reaches its zenith of generosity and power (a “midpoint” he compares to a person’s peak functional age); fourth, it weakens and declines; and fifth, it perishes. The early stages of strong social cohesion are marked by coarse (pastoral) manners, simple laws that are obeyed, a thirst for reputation, and modest affluence, equally shared. The late stages of withering ‘asabiyya are marked by refined (urban) manners, complex laws that are evaded, a thirst for money, and great riches, hoarded by a few. (Kindle Loc 1189)

 Howe brings up historical epochs in the past, from the Civil War to the Great Awakening, to The Glorious Revolution and of course the Revolutionary War. These examples are used to illustrate the operating principles behind his theory. The idea is that societies post-crisis go into institutional building mode, successfully providing the basis for material welfare and great works (think about the interstate highway system, rural electrification, and the race to the moon). After material welfare has been satisfied, the next generation focuses on processes and codification, followed by a spiritual generation that ignores material welfare and searches for inner meaning, followed by a generation driven by pragmatism and need to survive, after which a crisis will occur that resets the society, assuming it successfully overcomes the challenge.

There are a few subtle points new to this book:

• Howe argues that the world has converged to a single generational cycle, since World War 2 effectively reset all societies.
• He further argues that while the individual events are unpredictable (there are wars and crisis in every generation), society's reactions to those crisis are not. In retrospect, he says, it was obvious that World War 1 would not resolve satisfactorily because of the generational constellations, while World War 2 was seized upon and built upon to reset society.

Only after these enemies surrendered unconditionally did America relent. And not only relent. America used its newfound global authority to reconstruct these nations as liberal democracies—a successful exercise in “nation building” that later generations would dismiss as hopelessly beyond their power....In fact, long-term solutions to big issues happen only when the nation reinvents itself. And that happens not on a sunny summer day—but on a dark winter day when citizens’ backs are against the wall and every available option points to sacrifice and danger. Paradoxically, the nation makes its most serious commitments to its long-term future precisely when its near-term existence seems most in doubt. These are the moments when everyone comprehends, as Benjamin Franklin allegedly quipped just after adding his signature to the Declaration of Independence, that “we must all hang together or most assuredly we will all hang separately.” (kindle loc 5304-5342)

Assuming you buy Howe's premise, how does Howe use his theory to predict the future. He claims that we're in the midst of a generational crisis now (Prophets in elderly age and Heroes in their youth) that will resolve in a climax somewhere around 2032. He gives no specifics but predicts that the most likely scenario is a war. 

During the Millennial Crisis climax, acting out of necessity, America’s political leaders will have overhauled major parts of the economy that are today encumbered with decades of dysfunctional subsidies, NIMBY regulations, and barriers to competition that favor incumbents. These large “social” sectors—including education, health care, communications, finance, and construction—today amount to roughly half of GDP. They constitute a major roadblock to rising living standards because they currently experience negative productivity growth during a typical year, which means that their prices rise faster than average workers’ income. All this will change in the next First Turning. From banking, colleges, and home building to hospitals, big pharma, and social media, countless industries will be jolted back to life during the years of emergency. With a fresh policy framework in place, take-home wages will jump, public budgets will find welcome relief, and a vast economic frontier will again be open to innovation...By the 2040s, measures of wealth and income inequality will have declined from the historically exceptional levels of the late 2010s. This decline in inequality will likely happen in two stages. The first stage will be sudden and will accompany the inflation, mobilization, and economic regimentation triggered by the Crisis climax. The second, more gradual stage will be set in motion by the First Turning’s transformed economic and policy environment. Full employment with rapid earnings growth, augmented by a higher minimum wage, will expand workers’ share of national income. Immigration rates will remain well below what they were before the Crisis era began in 2008—and reduced immigration will effectively bid up low-skilled wages. Comprehensive taxation of capital income and bequests will lighten the middle-class tax burden. Social welfare programs will become relatively less generous for the nonpoor elderly and relatively more generous for young working families. (kindle loc 7427-7447)

The one thing that I respect most about Howe & Strauss has been that they have not flinched at using their theory to make predictions. So far, their prediction of a generational crisis made in their  1991 has come true. If what they wrote about the global cycle it also means that there's no way to escape the coming crisis --- no place on the planet will be exempt. May we all live to see whether or not his predictions post 2033 will be true!