Bernstein's latest book spends a bit of time talking about how the emotional aspect of investing is an important one, one that many smart people fall down on. In particular, he mentioned Jason Zweig's book, Your Money and Your Brain as being worthwhile reading on this topic.
The book starts off by discussing the difference between your visceral gut reactions and your thinking, reflective system. This comes into play during the current market turmoil, where many people, despite having had the "buy low" mantra drilled into them, were paralyzed by fear instead, or sold in a panic. Zweig then goes on to discuss various foibles of the human brain.
He starts off with our tendency to remember when we were correct, and forget when we are wrong. Even worse, studies show that we have a tendency to revise our past predictions in retrospect, so our understanding of our own accuracy is suspect. He then goes on to describe how everyone lives in a world where he's better looking, and above average in intelligence. Furthermore, nearly everyone thinks he has a larger amount of risk tolerance than he says he has. He then discusses anchoring and framing, two common short cuts that people use to make decisions---including investment decisions, where they can be particularly dangerous.
This is followed up by chapters on Fear, Surprise, Regret, and finally, Happiness, where the common discussions of happiness are touted (e.g., having a bad commute is one of the worst thing you can do for your peace of mind, and the hedonistic treadmill keeps you from achieving happiness through buying more stuff). None of these will come as a surprise to anyone who's done any reading in recent years, but it's all packaged up very nicely and clearly for an investment audience. What's particularly good are the suggestions on what you can do to overcome your brain's natural tendency to do the wrong thing as far as investing is concerned. (One particularly striking section of the book interviews money managers who have trained themselves to buy whenever they feel like throwing up because of stock market gyrations)
Recommended.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
My Book Project
I heard about kickstarter yesterday, and immediately decided that this is a good way to collect beta-testers, people who want advanced reader copies, pre-orders, etc. The current intention is to use Amazon's self-publication service, and of course, Kindle editions.
However, for pre-ordering folks, I'm offering a DRM-free digital copy of the book if you pledge to support the project. My goal would be to get about 20 beta-testers out of this (hence the $1000 project goal). As with other kickstarter projects, if not enough people demonstrate interest, you're not on the hook for the costs.
I consider this an interesting experiment, and look forward to seeing how it will turn out.
However, for pre-ordering folks, I'm offering a DRM-free digital copy of the book if you pledge to support the project. My goal would be to get about 20 beta-testers out of this (hence the $1000 project goal). As with other kickstarter projects, if not enough people demonstrate interest, you're not on the hook for the costs.
I consider this an interesting experiment, and look forward to seeing how it will turn out.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Review: Mercury Falls
When Robert Kroese, who also works at Google, offered his comic novel Mercury Falls on the Kindle for $1.99, I bought it, to support another Googler, if nothing else.
The novel revolves around the apocalypse --- Christine, a reporter for the evangelical newspaper The Banner has seen so many cults proclaim the end of the world that she's now jaded, but after returning from yet another apparently fruitless such prediction, she discovers that her house has been broken into by a Demon, and the apocalypse ensues.
The style is evocative of Douglas Adams' classic, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series, complete with several digressions into tangents, an omniscient narrator who explains what's going on behind the scenes to the reader, and self-referential jokes.
Unfortunately, I found the book merely mildly amusing, rather than being funny the way Adams' series was. There are moments of amusing word play every chapter or so, and every once in a while a funny moment deserves a chortle. But while Adams' works frequently make subtle references to the human condition, I found that Mercury Falls frequently made cheap shots --- like having a flaming pillar of fire from heaven coming down and striking down hapless characters.
The book finishes in self-referential fashion, by constructing a rationale for its existence, tying up everything in a nice little knot, but ultimately, I found myself unsatisfied in the quest for laughs. Nevertheless, humor is an unpredictable thing, so if you have a Kindle you might as well download the sample and see if it sucks you in. But I found Neil Gaiman's Anansi Boys funnier and less obviously forced.
The novel revolves around the apocalypse --- Christine, a reporter for the evangelical newspaper The Banner has seen so many cults proclaim the end of the world that she's now jaded, but after returning from yet another apparently fruitless such prediction, she discovers that her house has been broken into by a Demon, and the apocalypse ensues.
The style is evocative of Douglas Adams' classic, Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy series, complete with several digressions into tangents, an omniscient narrator who explains what's going on behind the scenes to the reader, and self-referential jokes.
Unfortunately, I found the book merely mildly amusing, rather than being funny the way Adams' series was. There are moments of amusing word play every chapter or so, and every once in a while a funny moment deserves a chortle. But while Adams' works frequently make subtle references to the human condition, I found that Mercury Falls frequently made cheap shots --- like having a flaming pillar of fire from heaven coming down and striking down hapless characters.
The book finishes in self-referential fashion, by constructing a rationale for its existence, tying up everything in a nice little knot, but ultimately, I found myself unsatisfied in the quest for laughs. Nevertheless, humor is an unpredictable thing, so if you have a Kindle you might as well download the sample and see if it sucks you in. But I found Neil Gaiman's Anansi Boys funnier and less obviously forced.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Honda Fit first impressions
It's definitely no more than a 2 person job to load the bike into the car, since one of you has to hold the bike upright while the other runs back to the front of the car and lifts the rear wheel over the hump that the front seat makes. Nevertheless, it's just as fast as mounting a hitch-mounted bike rack and then lifting the bike onto the rack, along with all the the rigamarole I needed to do to get the fork of the tandem mounted onto the vertical bike rack.
Needless to say, all this running around means that the rear bumper of the car could get scratched, so after a couple of near misses, i bought the Rear Bumper Applique and installed it. We also needed bungee cords to secure the tandem so it wouldn't sway side to side while in the car, but the large number of anchor points inside the car made that easy. I was impressed by how many of those they were. Removing the bike from the car is far easier, and the first time we did it at a parking lot, other cyclists had to stop and stare, since they could not believe how a big bike like this could come out of a tiny car.
OK, enough bike talk. How does the car drive? It drives just fine. Some people refer to it as a sporty suspension, and it does feel a bit less of a boat than my Chrysler, but it's also a smaller car, so that's to be expected. The Fit is quieter than the convertible, but then, I would have been surprised if it wasn't. I love the reduced turning radius --- it certainly feels very agile when maneuvering in the parking lot.
I opted for the "Sport" trim, which came with alloy wheels, auto-stick paddle shifters, fog lights (useful for San Francisco), and a sound system that could take as input a USB port, and supposedly an ipod. To my disappointment, the ipod dock would not recognize my ancient 20GB ipod classic. Looking through the manual, it looked like it would only recognize the latest ipod classic or ipod nanos. Oh well, I plugged in a USB flash drive instead, and that worked just fine. The big shocker, though, was that it wouldn't display unicode characters (Chinese or Japanese!). A look through my document's paperwork showed that the car was indeed assembled and manufactured in Japan, which makes me wonder what the heck Honda was thinking! (Sure, the car was destined for California, but California has plenty of Chinese/Japanese/Korean speakers)
The sound system in the car is great --- nothing fancy, it just works. I also like it that the sound system also takes MP3 CDs, not just regular audio CDs. My guess, though, is that I'll buy a 16GB USB drive and just be done with it.
As previously mentioned, the car comes with sports paddle shifters, similar to the auto-stick that was on my Chrysler. It works, but has one flaw --- it doesn't display the current selected gear continuously, only when you first click the paddle. This is nasty, since the car seems to have the habit of down-shifting and up-shifting without telling you even though you've used the manual mode, so you could easily think you're already in one gear when the car's already shifted to another. Not a big problem, but makes the feature less attractive than you might imagine. (Why would you use auto-stick? Mostly to force the car into 3rd gear when descending a big mountain --- not a big deal to most people, but California is mountainous)
Sitting in the car, you get the impression that the car is pretty big. That's because even though it's a small car, the design of it is such that there's a lot of headroom. This is good, because it lets us get the tandem into the car without lowering the stoker seat, but it also contributes to giving the car's interior an airy feel, which I like.
All in all, it seems like a pretty nice car so far, and I'll report some more after we've had a chance to take a few long trips with it.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Programming Tools
Every time I think about programming tools, I get really annoyed. If you've been programming for a while, you probably started off with the basic PRINT statement as your debugging tool way back when micro-computers were too small and insufficiently powerful to run anything as sophisticated as a debugger.
When Turbo Pascal 3.0 came out for the PC, it was a revelation, at least for me. You could have a programming environment that could not only compile at lightning fast speeds, but it too, was restricted to debugging via print statements --- debuggers only became available starting from Turbo Pascal 4.0.
When I got to college and had access to UNIX machines, having a debugger was a revelation. You could single-step through code, print variables, set break points (and even conditional break points), walk up and down the stack, and if you recompiled the code, you could restart the program and the debugging would automatically pick up the new binary. I got out of the habit of writing print statements.
As an intern at Geoworks, I became even more spoiled. Geoworks had an in-house debugger called swat, and the basic development environment was a SUN workstation connected to a PC via a serial cable. You would then cross-compile on your SUN (using a distributed compiling environment), download the code via the serial cable to the PC, and swat would run on your workstation while talking to a debugging stub on the PC. Swat was ridiculously sophisticated --- to this day, I still have not used a debugger that works as well. (The author, Adam de Boor, like most of the smart people I've ever met, now works at Google) First of all, it had an extension language built into it (tcl). But secondly, the programmers working on GEOS had a very tool-oriented ethic: every time a new data structure was added, they would also write a swat extension that understood how the data structure was laid out in memory. This enabled you to type "heapwalk" at the swat prompt, and the debugger would then walk through memory and dump out all the data structures in human-readable, human-formatted form! If you had a linked list, you could tell it to walk the linked list and dump every element in it. If it was a linked list of a certain object, you could tell it to dump out the actual objects while walking through the list, rather than just dumping the pointer. Even though GEOS was written entirely in assembly (yes, even the applications --- how do you think everything fit into 512KB?), it felt more sophisticated than any high level language except Lisp.
When I graduated school and worked at Pure Software, we took a lot of pains to make sure the purify would work with debuggers. Stack traces, etc., would work with whatever debugger you used, and variable names always remained intact. This was despite incremental linkers and other techniques that Purify applied to binaries under inspection. To this day, no other UNIX vendor or free software tool has deployed an incremental linker.
When I started having to do Windows development again, the IDEs such as Visual C++ felt like a step backwards --- they had a lot of pretty visuals, but none of them were extensible, so you couldn't teach it about your new data structure, or get it to walk a list. Nevertheless, I still didn't need to write PRINT statements. When I ended up writing VxDs for a living in 1995, I had a much more primitive environment, and it was painful, but I quickly learned to abstract away most of the issues and not rewrite VxDs as much as possible.
Enter the internet server age, and I feel like it's 1986 again, and I might as well be programming on a PDP-11 using RSTS/E BASIC. Today, any kind of cloud programming that requires harnessing multiple machines essentially relies on RPCs. One would think that with all the knowledge we have from building old debuggers and such systems, we would be able to do things like single-step through a procedure from one machine to a remote machine, and still be able to do stack dumps, walk stack traces, and print data structures. The sad truth is, we can't. In fact, in many environments, you can barely attach a debugger to a remote process, and in some cases if you do attach a debugger and then detach it, the process immediately exits. Symbolic variable names? Thanks to C++ name mangling, I can barely decipher error messages from the compiler, let alone use a symbolic name in a debugger. Combine that with threads, remote systems, and other such setups, and pretty soon you're back to debugging using PRINT statements. You might dress it up and call it "logging" (and I know I've been guilty of doing that myself), but really, it's debugging via PRINTs, and as someone who calls himself a software engineer, whenever I put in yet another LOG statement I feel ashamed, both for myself and for my profession --- we had such beautiful tools in the 80s and 90s, but they are all wasted in the internet era. Yes, I'm well aware that people have written RPC analyzers --- but again, they're all after-the-fact analysis tools --- not nearly as useful as being able to "stop the state of the world and examine the state at leisure", which was what swat and the other tools were capable of doing.
What's responsible for this state of affairs? I think the big one is the decline of the market for programming tools. After Borland died, there was no longer an effective programming tools company that had the kind of end-to-end reach that could provide a development environment that was sophisticated. Microsoft all but stopped evolving its programming tools. Since it was impossible to compete against the free gdb/gcc/g++ tools (and now the free Eclipse), it became a case of "don't beat them, join them." Without end-to-end control of a development environment, it's hard to build a debugger that would do the right thing --- Microsoft could probably do that for its environment, as can Apple, but neither are power-houses in client/server/distributed computing. Google and Yahoo could invest in their distributed debugging infrastructure, but have chosen to invest resources elsewhere. The net result: I don't feel like our programming tools have done anything but gone backwards, despite all the progress we've made in other areas.
When Turbo Pascal 3.0 came out for the PC, it was a revelation, at least for me. You could have a programming environment that could not only compile at lightning fast speeds, but it too, was restricted to debugging via print statements --- debuggers only became available starting from Turbo Pascal 4.0.
When I got to college and had access to UNIX machines, having a debugger was a revelation. You could single-step through code, print variables, set break points (and even conditional break points), walk up and down the stack, and if you recompiled the code, you could restart the program and the debugging would automatically pick up the new binary. I got out of the habit of writing print statements.
As an intern at Geoworks, I became even more spoiled. Geoworks had an in-house debugger called swat, and the basic development environment was a SUN workstation connected to a PC via a serial cable. You would then cross-compile on your SUN (using a distributed compiling environment), download the code via the serial cable to the PC, and swat would run on your workstation while talking to a debugging stub on the PC. Swat was ridiculously sophisticated --- to this day, I still have not used a debugger that works as well. (The author, Adam de Boor, like most of the smart people I've ever met, now works at Google) First of all, it had an extension language built into it (tcl). But secondly, the programmers working on GEOS had a very tool-oriented ethic: every time a new data structure was added, they would also write a swat extension that understood how the data structure was laid out in memory. This enabled you to type "heapwalk" at the swat prompt, and the debugger would then walk through memory and dump out all the data structures in human-readable, human-formatted form! If you had a linked list, you could tell it to walk the linked list and dump every element in it. If it was a linked list of a certain object, you could tell it to dump out the actual objects while walking through the list, rather than just dumping the pointer. Even though GEOS was written entirely in assembly (yes, even the applications --- how do you think everything fit into 512KB?), it felt more sophisticated than any high level language except Lisp.
When I graduated school and worked at Pure Software, we took a lot of pains to make sure the purify would work with debuggers. Stack traces, etc., would work with whatever debugger you used, and variable names always remained intact. This was despite incremental linkers and other techniques that Purify applied to binaries under inspection. To this day, no other UNIX vendor or free software tool has deployed an incremental linker.
When I started having to do Windows development again, the IDEs such as Visual C++ felt like a step backwards --- they had a lot of pretty visuals, but none of them were extensible, so you couldn't teach it about your new data structure, or get it to walk a list. Nevertheless, I still didn't need to write PRINT statements. When I ended up writing VxDs for a living in 1995, I had a much more primitive environment, and it was painful, but I quickly learned to abstract away most of the issues and not rewrite VxDs as much as possible.
Enter the internet server age, and I feel like it's 1986 again, and I might as well be programming on a PDP-11 using RSTS/E BASIC. Today, any kind of cloud programming that requires harnessing multiple machines essentially relies on RPCs. One would think that with all the knowledge we have from building old debuggers and such systems, we would be able to do things like single-step through a procedure from one machine to a remote machine, and still be able to do stack dumps, walk stack traces, and print data structures. The sad truth is, we can't. In fact, in many environments, you can barely attach a debugger to a remote process, and in some cases if you do attach a debugger and then detach it, the process immediately exits. Symbolic variable names? Thanks to C++ name mangling, I can barely decipher error messages from the compiler, let alone use a symbolic name in a debugger. Combine that with threads, remote systems, and other such setups, and pretty soon you're back to debugging using PRINT statements. You might dress it up and call it "logging" (and I know I've been guilty of doing that myself), but really, it's debugging via PRINTs, and as someone who calls himself a software engineer, whenever I put in yet another LOG statement I feel ashamed, both for myself and for my profession --- we had such beautiful tools in the 80s and 90s, but they are all wasted in the internet era. Yes, I'm well aware that people have written RPC analyzers --- but again, they're all after-the-fact analysis tools --- not nearly as useful as being able to "stop the state of the world and examine the state at leisure", which was what swat and the other tools were capable of doing.
What's responsible for this state of affairs? I think the big one is the decline of the market for programming tools. After Borland died, there was no longer an effective programming tools company that had the kind of end-to-end reach that could provide a development environment that was sophisticated. Microsoft all but stopped evolving its programming tools. Since it was impossible to compete against the free gdb/gcc/g++ tools (and now the free Eclipse), it became a case of "don't beat them, join them." Without end-to-end control of a development environment, it's hard to build a debugger that would do the right thing --- Microsoft could probably do that for its environment, as can Apple, but neither are power-houses in client/server/distributed computing. Google and Yahoo could invest in their distributed debugging infrastructure, but have chosen to invest resources elsewhere. The net result: I don't feel like our programming tools have done anything but gone backwards, despite all the progress we've made in other areas.
Some conversations are too funny not to post
Back when she was at Google, X used to work out with me every so often. Not being a motivated health nut, as soon as she left, she lapsed, but recently tried to get started again:
X: I'm thinking about seeing my doctor because everytime after i work out my chest area hurt. I'm not sure if it's my heart or if i'm pulling muscle and just exercising wrong.
Me: Do you feel nauseous? That can happen if you work too hard.
X: i don't feel nauseous. i just feel a tight feeling near my chest but i don't think it's my heart
me: What are you doing when you feel the tight feeling? running? lifting weights?
X: no, stretches, light weights. really light tho, lighter than what we used to do.
Me: oh, that just means your bra is too tight
X: REALLY?!?!?!??! .... OK, I'll cancel my doctor's appointment.
X: I'm thinking about seeing my doctor because everytime after i work out my chest area hurt. I'm not sure if it's my heart or if i'm pulling muscle and just exercising wrong.
Me: Do you feel nauseous? That can happen if you work too hard.
X: i don't feel nauseous. i just feel a tight feeling near my chest but i don't think it's my heart
me: What are you doing when you feel the tight feeling? running? lifting weights?
X: no, stretches, light weights. really light tho, lighter than what we used to do.
Me: oh, that just means your bra is too tight
X: REALLY?!?!?!??! .... OK, I'll cancel my doctor's appointment.
Monday, November 16, 2009
Review: Dark City, Director's Cut
I was first introduced to the movie, Dark City by Steve Grimm, who told me that it was one of the best movies ever made, only marred by the movie studios who stuck in a narration at the start that spoiled everything. He loaned me the New Line Platinum edition DVD, and told me to stick it into my DVD player and skip the first chapter.
I went home, and did exactly that, and my brothers and I were captivated by the movie. The story was well-told, the actors portrayed what felt like a very real world but in a surreal environment, and the visuals quite unlike any movies I had seen up to this point. When I saw that the director's cut was out, I bought it, despite my fear that somehow knowing the plot would make the movie less watchable.
It turned out that the director's cut is only very subtly different from the original theatrical release. The opening narration is gone (a mistake admitted by the director), and some scenes have been extended for more character development, but to be honest it was so long ago since I saw the theatrical release that I no longer remember what scenes were there as opposed to not.
Regardless, the story is still compelling, moving forward quickly enough to keep your interest, but not so fast as to lose you. William Hurt plays his role with verve, and Jenny Conelly has a luminosity in her scenes that has only grown since. All in all, 90 minutes very well spent.
Highly recommended. (Note: this movie is R-rated, not for any particular scene, but the intensity might be a bit much for young viewers. Lisa had a nightmare afterwards)
I went home, and did exactly that, and my brothers and I were captivated by the movie. The story was well-told, the actors portrayed what felt like a very real world but in a surreal environment, and the visuals quite unlike any movies I had seen up to this point. When I saw that the director's cut was out, I bought it, despite my fear that somehow knowing the plot would make the movie less watchable.
It turned out that the director's cut is only very subtly different from the original theatrical release. The opening narration is gone (a mistake admitted by the director), and some scenes have been extended for more character development, but to be honest it was so long ago since I saw the theatrical release that I no longer remember what scenes were there as opposed to not.
Regardless, the story is still compelling, moving forward quickly enough to keep your interest, but not so fast as to lose you. William Hurt plays his role with verve, and Jenny Conelly has a luminosity in her scenes that has only grown since. All in all, 90 minutes very well spent.
Highly recommended. (Note: this movie is R-rated, not for any particular scene, but the intensity might be a bit much for young viewers. Lisa had a nightmare afterwards)
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Review: Stop Acting Rich
At this point, has there anyone who hasn't read about The Millionaire Next Door? When one of my brothers read that book he told me that the saddest thing about reading the book was that he had to learn to be a cheapskate like me.
Stop Acting Rich is a follow-up, in the fashion of Hollywood studios who can't help milking a movie Franchise over and over again until every marginal dollar has been made.
The book makes several points:
All in all, the book is entertaining, but provides limited additional insights if you've already read The Millionaire Next Door, so I can't in good faith recommend it.
Stop Acting Rich is a follow-up, in the fashion of Hollywood studios who can't help milking a movie Franchise over and over again until every marginal dollar has been made.
The book makes several points:
- Many people who drive expensive cars and live in rich neighborhoods are themselves not rich. The few who are, tend to come from a special type of household and childhood that they are trying to banish by deliberately spending on "the best."
- Living in a wealthy neighborhood before you are wealthy makes it harder to accumulate wealth. People measure themselves by comparing what they have to what their neighbors have. By constantly surrounding yourself by people who are so wealthy that $50,000 cars are a minuscule portion of their net-worth, you set yourself on a hedonistic treadmill which depletes your wealth instead of accumulating it.
- Engineers are the most frugal millionaires in America. They have no problem living below their means, and driving cheap cars for the sake of efficiency. Engineers account for 7.6% of millionaires but are only 2.3% of the working population. They also never pay retail. What amuses me the most about this, of course, is that engineers have a notoriously hard time attracting mates, which tells me that a lot of "acting rich" is really about demonstrating proof of reproductive suitability (don't ask me whether the strategy succeeds --- the author doesn't mention it). And true to form, I checked this book out of the local library rather than buying it.
- By contrast, middle managers and attorneys have a hard time accumulating wealth despite having high incomes. That's because their peers tend to live in expensive neighborhoods, which tends to accelerate their spending. This also explains why I've occasionally seen signs of jealousy from managers in the past.
All in all, the book is entertaining, but provides limited additional insights if you've already read The Millionaire Next Door, so I can't in good faith recommend it.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Review: The Investor's Manifesto
The Investor's Manifesto is Bill Bernstein's latest book on investing. I was worried that since I had read most of his previous books, The Four Pillars of Investing, and The Birth of Plenty, that this would just be a rehash of old material so brilliantly covered by David Swenson in Unconventional Success.
Bernstein wrote that one of his goals was to write a book even more accessible than Four Pillars, and I think to that end he succeeded --- I easily breezed through the book in a couple of days, and there's no sophisticated math here to scare even the most liberal of liberal arts majors away. A big important section that wasn't properly covered before is the emotional aspects of investing --- Bernstein points out that most investors over-estimate their risk tolerance (something frequently causes them to buy high and sell low), and that faddish investing (investing so as to have something to brag about at dinner parties) is likely to have extremely poor results. He puts it all across in a very witty fashion as well, for instance, writing about the fad for investing in China, he points out that the Chinese stock market has had a negative 3.3 percent return over the last 2 decades, and in addition:
Finally, in many developing markets, governments do not protect shareholders from the rapacity of management as well as in nations with more established legal systems. In other words, in these countries, management and controlling shareholders find it disturbingly easy to loot a company. Even more bluntly, a nation that does not protect its children from lead-contaminated toys will likely not protect its foreign shareholders.
In particular, the chapters on asset allocation and the provided sample asset allocations are now very refined in explanation. His advice on rebalancing, for instance, is even more nuanced than before, and covers all the tax considerations that were not always mentioned in previous books.
He points out on the one hand, given the failure of Wall Street professionals to beat the market or even match the market indices' performance, it seems extremely unlikely that asking all Americans to manage their own 401(k) portfolio would result in a good outcome. On the other hand, hiring a financial advisor is also fraught with danger:
people do not go into the financial services industry for the same reasons that attract individuals to social work, government service, or elementary education. It is rare to meet a hedge fund manager or mutual fund executive who has a vision of the world that extends very far beyond his or her own self-interest. It is not grossly unfair to observe that most seek employment at brokerage houses, hedge funds, and mutual funds for the same reason Willie Sutton supposedly offered for robbing banks: “Because that’s where the money is.” Consequently, you should extend an extra degree of caution to anyone who wants to manage your finances.
These are dilemmas that I myself haven't been able to resolve. Bernstein then finishes up the book by describing how you can inoculate your children against American brand-awareness and marketing, as well as teaching them how to manage their finances well. This isn't typically covered in many financial books, and short as his advice is, I think it will prove effective.
All in all, this is a very good book, and very much worth your time to read. Highly recommended!
Bernstein wrote that one of his goals was to write a book even more accessible than Four Pillars, and I think to that end he succeeded --- I easily breezed through the book in a couple of days, and there's no sophisticated math here to scare even the most liberal of liberal arts majors away. A big important section that wasn't properly covered before is the emotional aspects of investing --- Bernstein points out that most investors over-estimate their risk tolerance (something frequently causes them to buy high and sell low), and that faddish investing (investing so as to have something to brag about at dinner parties) is likely to have extremely poor results. He puts it all across in a very witty fashion as well, for instance, writing about the fad for investing in China, he points out that the Chinese stock market has had a negative 3.3 percent return over the last 2 decades, and in addition:
Finally, in many developing markets, governments do not protect shareholders from the rapacity of management as well as in nations with more established legal systems. In other words, in these countries, management and controlling shareholders find it disturbingly easy to loot a company. Even more bluntly, a nation that does not protect its children from lead-contaminated toys will likely not protect its foreign shareholders.
In particular, the chapters on asset allocation and the provided sample asset allocations are now very refined in explanation. His advice on rebalancing, for instance, is even more nuanced than before, and covers all the tax considerations that were not always mentioned in previous books.
He points out on the one hand, given the failure of Wall Street professionals to beat the market or even match the market indices' performance, it seems extremely unlikely that asking all Americans to manage their own 401(k) portfolio would result in a good outcome. On the other hand, hiring a financial advisor is also fraught with danger:
people do not go into the financial services industry for the same reasons that attract individuals to social work, government service, or elementary education. It is rare to meet a hedge fund manager or mutual fund executive who has a vision of the world that extends very far beyond his or her own self-interest. It is not grossly unfair to observe that most seek employment at brokerage houses, hedge funds, and mutual funds for the same reason Willie Sutton supposedly offered for robbing banks: “Because that’s where the money is.” Consequently, you should extend an extra degree of caution to anyone who wants to manage your finances.
These are dilemmas that I myself haven't been able to resolve. Bernstein then finishes up the book by describing how you can inoculate your children against American brand-awareness and marketing, as well as teaching them how to manage their finances well. This isn't typically covered in many financial books, and short as his advice is, I think it will prove effective.
All in all, this is a very good book, and very much worth your time to read. Highly recommended!
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Kindle App for your PC
The Kindle App for your PC just launched. What's really cool is that it doesn't seem to take up a slot as far as devices are concerned (which I would have known, since I already have 6 devices).
Another nice thing is that tables, etc., show up much larger on a 24" screen than they do in the book. This is particularly useful for non-fiction books, such as Value Averaging, which has lots of tables, equations, and charts, all rendered as pictures on the Kindle.
Even if you don't have a Kindle, and like reading on a netbook, this application basically makes all of Kindle's content available to you. Given the number of free books for the Kindle, that makes it worth the download.
Another nice thing is that tables, etc., show up much larger on a 24" screen than they do in the book. This is particularly useful for non-fiction books, such as Value Averaging, which has lots of tables, equations, and charts, all rendered as pictures on the Kindle.
Even if you don't have a Kindle, and like reading on a netbook, this application basically makes all of Kindle's content available to you. Given the number of free books for the Kindle, that makes it worth the download.
Monday, November 09, 2009
Review: Every Landlord's Tax Deduction Guide
Every landlord's tax deduction guide is a guide to tax deductions oriented towards a landlord. Of course, some people I know run their rental businesses on a cash basis and evade taxes that way, but I don't advocate doing that, since pissing off the IRS is a good way to lose a lot of money.
Once you've decided to run a legitimate (at least in the eyes of the IRS) business, there are several questions, including:
As you can see, any complication at all, and you need to start worrying about how the tax system works. In addition, by knowing what sort of items are deductible, and what aren't, you get to do better tax planning and increase your after-tax profits.
You expect tax books to be extremely boring, but this one was very well-written. It's still not as interesting as say, a Richard Morgan novel, but if you read it in small chunks everything is laid out clearly and you won't be bored. The only obvious flaw I can find is that they don't emphasize how fraught with danger the home office deduction is --- it is easily the biggest red flag the IRS looks for when seeking tax cheats, and if all you do is set aside a small portion of your home for it it is probably not worth putting up with the tax audits as a result.
All in all, this book is recommended if you're running a rental business --- I can see myself looking over it again in April as I file my taxes. And before you ask, yes, if you're running a rental business this book does qualify as a deduction.
Once you've decided to run a legitimate (at least in the eyes of the IRS) business, there are several questions, including:
- What does depreciation mean, and how do I take advantage of it?
- If I upgrade the unit, do I get to write that off against income?
- What if I'm renting out a room in a house, as opposed to the whole house?
- What if I rent it below market to my cousin?
As you can see, any complication at all, and you need to start worrying about how the tax system works. In addition, by knowing what sort of items are deductible, and what aren't, you get to do better tax planning and increase your after-tax profits.
You expect tax books to be extremely boring, but this one was very well-written. It's still not as interesting as say, a Richard Morgan novel, but if you read it in small chunks everything is laid out clearly and you won't be bored. The only obvious flaw I can find is that they don't emphasize how fraught with danger the home office deduction is --- it is easily the biggest red flag the IRS looks for when seeking tax cheats, and if all you do is set aside a small portion of your home for it it is probably not worth putting up with the tax audits as a result.
All in all, this book is recommended if you're running a rental business --- I can see myself looking over it again in April as I file my taxes. And before you ask, yes, if you're running a rental business this book does qualify as a deduction.
Sunday, November 08, 2009
Review: LG WM2016 Washing Machine
One of the benefits of owning a house is that I now get to have a washer and dryer. Prior to moving into my house, I had been doing laundry at work. At one point, I even would rig up a trailer to my bike so I could ride in with a load of laundry and get it done. It felt a bit ridiculous, but since I had absolutely no room at my apartment for a washer and dryer, I felt entirely justified.
When I moved to Munich last year, the office there didn't have a laundry machine at work, so I was forced to buy a used washing machine. Talk to a European who's lived in the USA about washing machines, especially a German, and you'll get a lecture about how German washing machines are much better in terms of cleaning laundry, energy efficiency, water efficiency. A typical German would tell you, "The only thing the American machines are good at, is not washing your laundry very well quickly!" German machines took a long time to run.
To my surprise, when I started shopping for washing machines, the one that stood out was the LG WM2016. It was the lowest priced machine that qualified for the PG&E energy efficiency appliance rebate. In fact, for Santa Clara county, the water company chipped in for a grand total of a $200 rebate, so the fact that it was $600 cheaper than all the other Tier 3 machines meant that it was a no-brainer. Consumer reports said good things about it, as did all the other web-sites that rated energy efficient washers. I bought the machine at BestBuy, in part to get the delivery and installation taken care of (these high efficiency must be properly leveled, so it's worth the $30 to get them to do it for you), and in part to pick up a 5 year warranty. I don't usually pick up extended warranties for products, but my brother convinced me that these front-loader units (at least the ones sold in America) are still not fully debugged, and since I intended to get a renter, I decided that the reviews on epinions meant that I should get a warranty.
Operating the machine is pretty straight forward: stuff all the laundry into the drum, close the door, drop in some detergent and bleach, and push the play button, and all the defaults will do the right thing. This machine was more sophisticated than my German machine in that it gave me a time estimate for when the laundry would be done (and yes, expect it to take at least an hour).
The trick lies in the various rules you have to abide by if you want to keep your machine reliable. First of all, you must use HE-rated detergent. This is a big deal because normal detergent generates too many suds for these machines, eventually clogging up the machine's outbound pipe, and resulting in a dead machine. I thought the detergent would be more expensive, but it turns out that Safeway sells a 96-load pack of HE detergent for $10 under their house brand. To prevent the renter from cheaping out and using normal detergent, I've simply folded the cost of detergent into her rent, so she uses ours.
Next, when you're done with laundry, you must leave the laundry door open. Actually, all washing machines have to be treated this way, otherwise, mold will grow in the machine and your clothes will never smell clean again. It's just that a top-loading machine would typically have its lid open when laundry is done without interfering with anything else, while a front loader's door could get in your way. I solved this problem by putting the washing machine in a place where the open door wouldn't be an issue.
The machine has all the functions you might expect --- separate settings for washing towels, delicates, even a hand-wash mode. You can pre-rinse, pre-wash, add an extra wash cycle, set spin speeds, and decide what temperature of water to use. When it first starts up, it will turn the drum over --- that's the machine weighing your laundry so it can figure out how much to use! The result is the machine is very quiet, extremely water and energy efficient, and takes forever to do laundry. That would have driven me wild if I had to share a laundry machine with 10000 other Googlers, but for just Lisa, me, and the renter, it's just fine.
All in all, we've had the machine for 4 months now, and it's working like a champ. We're not heavy laundry users, maybe doing a couple of loads a week, but we're quite pleased with it. I'll post a long term report after a few years to see how it goes.
In case you're wondering, for the dryer, we just went with whatever scratch-and-dent unit Best Buy had in stock and went for the cheapest one. There's no difference in energy efficiency amongst gas dryers, so that's the correct selection method.
When I moved to Munich last year, the office there didn't have a laundry machine at work, so I was forced to buy a used washing machine. Talk to a European who's lived in the USA about washing machines, especially a German, and you'll get a lecture about how German washing machines are much better in terms of cleaning laundry, energy efficiency, water efficiency. A typical German would tell you, "The only thing the American machines are good at, is not washing your laundry very well quickly!" German machines took a long time to run.
To my surprise, when I started shopping for washing machines, the one that stood out was the LG WM2016. It was the lowest priced machine that qualified for the PG&E energy efficiency appliance rebate. In fact, for Santa Clara county, the water company chipped in for a grand total of a $200 rebate, so the fact that it was $600 cheaper than all the other Tier 3 machines meant that it was a no-brainer. Consumer reports said good things about it, as did all the other web-sites that rated energy efficient washers. I bought the machine at BestBuy, in part to get the delivery and installation taken care of (these high efficiency must be properly leveled, so it's worth the $30 to get them to do it for you), and in part to pick up a 5 year warranty. I don't usually pick up extended warranties for products, but my brother convinced me that these front-loader units (at least the ones sold in America) are still not fully debugged, and since I intended to get a renter, I decided that the reviews on epinions meant that I should get a warranty.
Operating the machine is pretty straight forward: stuff all the laundry into the drum, close the door, drop in some detergent and bleach, and push the play button, and all the defaults will do the right thing. This machine was more sophisticated than my German machine in that it gave me a time estimate for when the laundry would be done (and yes, expect it to take at least an hour).
The trick lies in the various rules you have to abide by if you want to keep your machine reliable. First of all, you must use HE-rated detergent. This is a big deal because normal detergent generates too many suds for these machines, eventually clogging up the machine's outbound pipe, and resulting in a dead machine. I thought the detergent would be more expensive, but it turns out that Safeway sells a 96-load pack of HE detergent for $10 under their house brand. To prevent the renter from cheaping out and using normal detergent, I've simply folded the cost of detergent into her rent, so she uses ours.
Next, when you're done with laundry, you must leave the laundry door open. Actually, all washing machines have to be treated this way, otherwise, mold will grow in the machine and your clothes will never smell clean again. It's just that a top-loading machine would typically have its lid open when laundry is done without interfering with anything else, while a front loader's door could get in your way. I solved this problem by putting the washing machine in a place where the open door wouldn't be an issue.
The machine has all the functions you might expect --- separate settings for washing towels, delicates, even a hand-wash mode. You can pre-rinse, pre-wash, add an extra wash cycle, set spin speeds, and decide what temperature of water to use. When it first starts up, it will turn the drum over --- that's the machine weighing your laundry so it can figure out how much to use! The result is the machine is very quiet, extremely water and energy efficient, and takes forever to do laundry. That would have driven me wild if I had to share a laundry machine with 10000 other Googlers, but for just Lisa, me, and the renter, it's just fine.
All in all, we've had the machine for 4 months now, and it's working like a champ. We're not heavy laundry users, maybe doing a couple of loads a week, but we're quite pleased with it. I'll post a long term report after a few years to see how it goes.
In case you're wondering, for the dryer, we just went with whatever scratch-and-dent unit Best Buy had in stock and went for the cheapest one. There's no difference in energy efficiency amongst gas dryers, so that's the correct selection method.
Saturday, November 07, 2009
Review: Honda Fit Floor Mats
It seems really odd that my $17,358 (before tax, docs, and extended warranty) Honda Fit came without floor mats, but I guess that's the price you pay for getting absolute rock bottom pricing.
Not being the type to pay for dealer pricing, I kept the car garaged and bought the 2009/2010 Honda Fit All Weather Mats online at Amazon.com. When the package arrived, I was surprised to find that every mat was different. I guess that's so that you think you got a good deal, custom fit and all.
What came as an unpleasant surprise, however, was the installation procedure. The non-driver's mats were easy --- just open the door and slip them in. The driver's mat, however, came with two anchors so the mat wouldn't slip onto the brake, accelerator, or clutch pedals. Now, you might expect that the mat anchors would just clip in onto existing purpose fit mount points onto the floor beneath the driver's seat, and you would be wrong.
Instead, the included instructions tell you to get out your exacto-knife, and cut into the carpet of your brand new car! What the heck was Honda thinking? OK, so I got out my leatherman and began the work of installation. As I worked on it, I kept hitting my head onto the driver's seat, despite having already pushed the driver's seat all the way back. The position was very awkward, and there wasn't a lot of room. It occurred to me that this would have been a heck of a lot easier if Honda had simply installed the anchors before installing the seats in the car, and charged me an extra $20 to do it, since it would be much easier to do at the factory.
After cutting out the two holes in the carpet, and another flap, I slipped the anchors in, and then backed up the anchor with the screw-driver portion of the leatherman, and snapped the bolts in place. Having done that, the driver's mat simply fit in, and I could then snap the anchors into place and the mats would be safely bolted to the floor.
It was a bit involved, but the whole process took only about 20 minutes, and given that the MSRP for these were $130, and I paid $120 (after shipping) by buying on-line, I guess I saved about $10 + labor (probably something outrageous at the dealer) for 20 minutes of work, which wasn't too bad. Nevertheless, it's annoying that something like this would be considered an after-market accessory, not something built into the price of the car.
Not being the type to pay for dealer pricing, I kept the car garaged and bought the 2009/2010 Honda Fit All Weather Mats online at Amazon.com. When the package arrived, I was surprised to find that every mat was different. I guess that's so that you think you got a good deal, custom fit and all.
What came as an unpleasant surprise, however, was the installation procedure. The non-driver's mats were easy --- just open the door and slip them in. The driver's mat, however, came with two anchors so the mat wouldn't slip onto the brake, accelerator, or clutch pedals. Now, you might expect that the mat anchors would just clip in onto existing purpose fit mount points onto the floor beneath the driver's seat, and you would be wrong.
Instead, the included instructions tell you to get out your exacto-knife, and cut into the carpet of your brand new car! What the heck was Honda thinking? OK, so I got out my leatherman and began the work of installation. As I worked on it, I kept hitting my head onto the driver's seat, despite having already pushed the driver's seat all the way back. The position was very awkward, and there wasn't a lot of room. It occurred to me that this would have been a heck of a lot easier if Honda had simply installed the anchors before installing the seats in the car, and charged me an extra $20 to do it, since it would be much easier to do at the factory.
After cutting out the two holes in the carpet, and another flap, I slipped the anchors in, and then backed up the anchor with the screw-driver portion of the leatherman, and snapped the bolts in place. Having done that, the driver's mat simply fit in, and I could then snap the anchors into place and the mats would be safely bolted to the floor.
It was a bit involved, but the whole process took only about 20 minutes, and given that the MSRP for these were $130, and I paid $120 (after shipping) by buying on-line, I guess I saved about $10 + labor (probably something outrageous at the dealer) for 20 minutes of work, which wasn't too bad. Nevertheless, it's annoying that something like this would be considered an after-market accessory, not something built into the price of the car.
Friday, November 06, 2009
Review: Crazy for God
Crazy for God is Frank Schaeffer's memoir about how he grew up in a Swiss mission, helped to found the anti-abortion fundamentalist movement, became a mover and shaker within the movement, and finally broke away from it when he realized how corrupt and irrational fundamentalism was.
Because the local Methodist school was one that had a good reputation for teaching English, my parents sent all three of their sons there. Ironically, our experience there made all three of us virulently non-Christians, and none of us could tolerate the middle-eastern origin religions as a result. I've long wondered whether people ever got sick of these hell-fire and damnation religions, and reading this book told me that it took an unusual person to actually submit themselves to rationality after years of indoctrination, but that it's actually possible.
Schaeffer grew up in a typical hot-house environment, since a missionary essentially lives off charity. What amuses me is how aware the kids are about who has how much money, right from the start, as the Edith Schaeffer, Frank's mother, continually talked about how much money someone had and could give if only he was more devoted to god. The amount of cognitive dissonance his parents had must have been considerable --- since they were fundamentalists (Edith Schaeffer was a dancer, but gave it up because God frowned upon dancing --- these really were the Taliban of America), they raised their children in strict accordance to the scriptures, but because they themselves had a love of art and the classics, would go on vacation to Italy and visit museums and teach their kids art history.
Contradictions were apparent and all over the place, whether it came to Frank's own experience with pre-marital sex (he got his wife pregnant and had to have a hurried wedding --- much to the horror of the community around the mission, but with the support of his parents!), or the kind of person who showed up at the mission, one of which was a woman who was hoping to marry someone Asian so she could go to Asia as a missionary. Yet Schaeffer referred to his parents as tolerant, well coming of everyone from hippies to drug addicts.
Things got more relevant to contemporary politics in the middle of the book, where Schaeffer describes how he persuaded his father to go into the abortion battle, and ended up producing two TV-series that became the heart of the evangelical movement. You can tell Schaeffer is not proud of those years, since the chapters on his presence in the anti-abortion and fundamentalist movements went really quickly. He does, however, pause to explain what most non-fundamentalists already knew --- the leaders of the fundamentalist movement consider their followers little people, who can't think for themselves and are to be exploited at every opportunity, and at the top levels, the fundamentalist movement is extremely corrupt. He made the comment at one point that while he had preached that American culture had become secular and humanist and therefore corrupt and was doomed to failure, he himself had never lived in America, and having to do so was a shock. The chapter where he moved to America as a person with Swiss upbringing and the many shocks American culture came with was a lot of fun.
Things got to the point where Schaeffer was basically doing his speeches by rote, and blanking his mind whenever he said something that he patently knew was not true. The result was that he ended up trying to get away from the movement, first as a film producer, and finally successfully as a novelist. He is now a member of the Greek Orthodox church, and no longer encourages intolerance.
All in all, the book is entertaining and worth reading for a view of what the evangelical movement looks like from the inside. It's a pity that the movement shows no sign of dying out.
Because the local Methodist school was one that had a good reputation for teaching English, my parents sent all three of their sons there. Ironically, our experience there made all three of us virulently non-Christians, and none of us could tolerate the middle-eastern origin religions as a result. I've long wondered whether people ever got sick of these hell-fire and damnation religions, and reading this book told me that it took an unusual person to actually submit themselves to rationality after years of indoctrination, but that it's actually possible.
Schaeffer grew up in a typical hot-house environment, since a missionary essentially lives off charity. What amuses me is how aware the kids are about who has how much money, right from the start, as the Edith Schaeffer, Frank's mother, continually talked about how much money someone had and could give if only he was more devoted to god. The amount of cognitive dissonance his parents had must have been considerable --- since they were fundamentalists (Edith Schaeffer was a dancer, but gave it up because God frowned upon dancing --- these really were the Taliban of America), they raised their children in strict accordance to the scriptures, but because they themselves had a love of art and the classics, would go on vacation to Italy and visit museums and teach their kids art history.
Contradictions were apparent and all over the place, whether it came to Frank's own experience with pre-marital sex (he got his wife pregnant and had to have a hurried wedding --- much to the horror of the community around the mission, but with the support of his parents!), or the kind of person who showed up at the mission, one of which was a woman who was hoping to marry someone Asian so she could go to Asia as a missionary. Yet Schaeffer referred to his parents as tolerant, well coming of everyone from hippies to drug addicts.
Things got more relevant to contemporary politics in the middle of the book, where Schaeffer describes how he persuaded his father to go into the abortion battle, and ended up producing two TV-series that became the heart of the evangelical movement. You can tell Schaeffer is not proud of those years, since the chapters on his presence in the anti-abortion and fundamentalist movements went really quickly. He does, however, pause to explain what most non-fundamentalists already knew --- the leaders of the fundamentalist movement consider their followers little people, who can't think for themselves and are to be exploited at every opportunity, and at the top levels, the fundamentalist movement is extremely corrupt. He made the comment at one point that while he had preached that American culture had become secular and humanist and therefore corrupt and was doomed to failure, he himself had never lived in America, and having to do so was a shock. The chapter where he moved to America as a person with Swiss upbringing and the many shocks American culture came with was a lot of fun.
Things got to the point where Schaeffer was basically doing his speeches by rote, and blanking his mind whenever he said something that he patently knew was not true. The result was that he ended up trying to get away from the movement, first as a film producer, and finally successfully as a novelist. He is now a member of the Greek Orthodox church, and no longer encourages intolerance.
All in all, the book is entertaining and worth reading for a view of what the evangelical movement looks like from the inside. It's a pity that the movement shows no sign of dying out.
Thursday, November 05, 2009
2010 Tour of the German-Speaking Alps Proposal
After the Pyrenees last year, and Japan this year, I've decided that next year will have to be a return to the Alps, still by far the best and prettiest riding I've done anywhere. The proposal would be to fly into Munich mid-to-late June, take the train or ride to Austria, and immediately head towards Grossglockner highway, the tallest road in Austria.
From there, we will likely have to zig-zag over passes between Austria and German-speaking Italy, before making our way into Switzerland and ending up in Rosenlaui for 2-3 days of hiking to finish up the tour. We can then either make our way back to Germany by bicycle if we've got plenty of time, or we'll take the train back from the Interlaken area if we've run out of time.
Since Lisa and I haven't decided on whether we're going to bring the tandem or whether I'll be doing the ride on a single, this tour is likely to be either challenging (like 2007) or an easy-going tour (like 2003). Obviously, whether I/we are in shape will make a big difference in how tough the tour will be.
Training for the tour is easy: as usual, we'll make use of the Western Wheelers LDT (Long Distance Training series) as the backbone of the training program. If you do the entire series of C or D rides, you should be able to finish the Sequoia century in early June in a reasonable amount of time. There are 4 multi-day trips scheduled for the LDT series, and I will also run a qualifier ride in March. The qualifier ride is mandatory unless you've gone on tour with me before --- though even if you have gone on tour with me before, you are encouraged to show up anyway.
After the qualifiers, we will commit buy buying plane and train tickets.
I used to provided expected costs for this tour in dollars, but since the dollar has fluctuated greatly, I'll provide an estimate in Euros instead: 75 Euros a day a person should be expected. This includes food and lodging, but train rides, etc., might prove to be expensive --- I'll try to get those under control as much as possible.
As with previous tours:
If you're interested, add yourself to the mailing list I've created. As usual, I'm going to restrict the group size to about 4 bikes. (I've never had more people want to go than I can take) If 3 weeks is too long a trip for you, you can come for less time (i.e., bail out early), but you're not allowed to join in the middle of the trip.
If you want more information, please read up on previous tours to decide whether my tours are right for you. In particular, you want to pay attention to the information packet for 2007 (or the 2005 one will work as well). If after reading all that you're still not sure, then the answer is no.
From there, we will likely have to zig-zag over passes between Austria and German-speaking Italy, before making our way into Switzerland and ending up in Rosenlaui for 2-3 days of hiking to finish up the tour. We can then either make our way back to Germany by bicycle if we've got plenty of time, or we'll take the train back from the Interlaken area if we've run out of time.
Since Lisa and I haven't decided on whether we're going to bring the tandem or whether I'll be doing the ride on a single, this tour is likely to be either challenging (like 2007) or an easy-going tour (like 2003). Obviously, whether I/we are in shape will make a big difference in how tough the tour will be.
Training for the tour is easy: as usual, we'll make use of the Western Wheelers LDT (Long Distance Training series) as the backbone of the training program. If you do the entire series of C or D rides, you should be able to finish the Sequoia century in early June in a reasonable amount of time. There are 4 multi-day trips scheduled for the LDT series, and I will also run a qualifier ride in March. The qualifier ride is mandatory unless you've gone on tour with me before --- though even if you have gone on tour with me before, you are encouraged to show up anyway.
After the qualifiers, we will commit buy buying plane and train tickets.
I used to provided expected costs for this tour in dollars, but since the dollar has fluctuated greatly, I'll provide an estimate in Euros instead: 75 Euros a day a person should be expected. This includes food and lodging, but train rides, etc., might prove to be expensive --- I'll try to get those under control as much as possible.
As with previous tours:
- You must be flexible with your diet --- staying in rural lodging often means eating whatever the family cooks for you.
- You must be willing to handle adventure --- at the very least some dirt riding should be expected. Hopping fences and having to push your bike over a hiking trail is to be expected.
- You have to be OK with not knowing where you're going to stay --- I rarely make reservations in advance.
- You must be willing to carry your own lugguage. No SAG vehicle will be provided.
- You must be self-sufficient as far as equipment is concerned. Don't expect me to fix your flats.
If you're interested, add yourself to the mailing list I've created. As usual, I'm going to restrict the group size to about 4 bikes. (I've never had more people want to go than I can take) If 3 weeks is too long a trip for you, you can come for less time (i.e., bail out early), but you're not allowed to join in the middle of the trip.
If you want more information, please read up on previous tours to decide whether my tours are right for you. In particular, you want to pay attention to the information packet for 2007 (or the 2005 one will work as well). If after reading all that you're still not sure, then the answer is no.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Review: Engineering your retirement
Engineering your retirement is a book about retirement planning. The author cleverly published it with IEEE press, which means that he can use equations with impunity.
Unfortunately, retirement planning doesn't require much math, so that freedom doesn't actually help him much. For instance, safe withdrawal rates are discussed for free at the retire early home page.
The sections on how to leave below your means is basically a list of ideas. Unfortunately, if you're an engineer (as Golio is smart enough to point out), frugality and efficiency in spending is already second nature to you, so this list is full of ideas that you've no doubt already considered. The section on increasing your earnings is similarly vague --- for instance, he talks about negotiating your salary, but doesn't list steps to go about doing so.
The section on investments does not cover asset allocation. The Retire Early study at least publishes a typical asset allocation strategy that's simple and easy to follow.
Ultimately, while I wanted to like this book, I can't find anything to recommend in it that you can't find for free elsewhere on the internet. In addition, he doesn't cover important topics such as the SEPP 72(t) exception, or the Social Security Application withdrawal option.
If you find John Greaney's web pages disorganized or hard to navigate, then this book might be interesting to you. Otherwise, you are better off spending some quality time on Greaney's web pages, and spending your $31 on something else.
Unfortunately, retirement planning doesn't require much math, so that freedom doesn't actually help him much. For instance, safe withdrawal rates are discussed for free at the retire early home page.
The sections on how to leave below your means is basically a list of ideas. Unfortunately, if you're an engineer (as Golio is smart enough to point out), frugality and efficiency in spending is already second nature to you, so this list is full of ideas that you've no doubt already considered. The section on increasing your earnings is similarly vague --- for instance, he talks about negotiating your salary, but doesn't list steps to go about doing so.
The section on investments does not cover asset allocation. The Retire Early study at least publishes a typical asset allocation strategy that's simple and easy to follow.
Ultimately, while I wanted to like this book, I can't find anything to recommend in it that you can't find for free elsewhere on the internet. In addition, he doesn't cover important topics such as the SEPP 72(t) exception, or the Social Security Application withdrawal option.
If you find John Greaney's web pages disorganized or hard to navigate, then this book might be interesting to you. Otherwise, you are better off spending some quality time on Greaney's web pages, and spending your $31 on something else.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009
The New York Times once again carries water for the Republican party
It never ceases to amaze me that the public option would be sliced and diced to death, but Republican proposals are taken seriously and at face value. The New York Times article today covers the Republican "healthcare" proposal.
Left unsaid:
And the supposed reduction in cost from allowing insurers to "compete" across state-lines? What that would do is to encourage a race to the bottom. Recall that adverse selection is the biggest problem in healthcare. Many states, such as New York, enforce a community rating system --- if you want to operate as a health insurance company in those states, you have to take all comers, no picking off only healthy folks.
The Republican proposal would allow out-of-state health insurance companies to pick off only healthy folks from community-rating states, therefore forcing in-state health insurance companies in New York into a death spiral.
Does the New York Times provide the proper context and analysis? No. That's because the world's too complicated for English majors to understand. As far as I'm concerned, traditional mass media outlets can't die quickly enough.
Left unsaid:
- No restrictions on health insurance denying you coverage for pre-existing conditions.
- No restrictions on a health insurance company dropping your coverage if you come down with an expensive illness. (Note how carefully the New York Times skirts around this issue when parroting the Republican talking points --- the references to intentionally concealing "material" information about your state of health could easily refer to an infection you got as a kid)
- No standards on what constitutes health insurance.
And the supposed reduction in cost from allowing insurers to "compete" across state-lines? What that would do is to encourage a race to the bottom. Recall that adverse selection is the biggest problem in healthcare. Many states, such as New York, enforce a community rating system --- if you want to operate as a health insurance company in those states, you have to take all comers, no picking off only healthy folks.
The Republican proposal would allow out-of-state health insurance companies to pick off only healthy folks from community-rating states, therefore forcing in-state health insurance companies in New York into a death spiral.
Does the New York Times provide the proper context and analysis? No. That's because the world's too complicated for English majors to understand. As far as I'm concerned, traditional mass media outlets can't die quickly enough.
Review: First American Home Buyers Protection
I was very pleased that my home came with a 1 year Home Warranty from First American. Unfortunately, I found out exactly how much it was worth: nothing.
We had a water heater break down in the in-law unit. Since we were planning to rent it out, we had to fix it. Pardo diagnosed the problem as being a 120V water heater hooked up to a 240V line (yes, the contractor who wired things up was an idiot --- unfortunately, it was owned by the previous owner), and the heating element was burned out. On-line, a 240V heating element didn't cost that much, but since I had a home warranty, I thought I should use it.
I called First American Warranty, told them what was wrong, and where, and they immediately sent a plumber out the next morning. The plumber showed up, charged $55 for the visit, and then proceeded to tell us that he was a plumber, not an electrician. He further called First American and told them that the inlaw unit wasn't covered by the warranty.
I ended up calling a contractor (the same one who worked on my house's flooring), and buying a 1500W 12V heating element from Amazon for $7.99, and he charged me $50 for the repair.
Needless to say, I do not recommend First American Home Warranty, for picking such stupid contractors, and charging for a visit where nothing got done, when the repair could easily have been done for the same amount charged. I am one unhappy customer, and if you're buying a home and the seller offers you a warranty from First American, I recommend that you either deduct the price from the house (as the warranty is pretty useless), or buy your own insurance.
We had a water heater break down in the in-law unit. Since we were planning to rent it out, we had to fix it. Pardo diagnosed the problem as being a 120V water heater hooked up to a 240V line (yes, the contractor who wired things up was an idiot --- unfortunately, it was owned by the previous owner), and the heating element was burned out. On-line, a 240V heating element didn't cost that much, but since I had a home warranty, I thought I should use it.
I called First American Warranty, told them what was wrong, and where, and they immediately sent a plumber out the next morning. The plumber showed up, charged $55 for the visit, and then proceeded to tell us that he was a plumber, not an electrician. He further called First American and told them that the inlaw unit wasn't covered by the warranty.
I ended up calling a contractor (the same one who worked on my house's flooring), and buying a 1500W 12V heating element from Amazon for $7.99, and he charged me $50 for the repair.
Needless to say, I do not recommend First American Home Warranty, for picking such stupid contractors, and charging for a visit where nothing got done, when the repair could easily have been done for the same amount charged. I am one unhappy customer, and if you're buying a home and the seller offers you a warranty from First American, I recommend that you either deduct the price from the house (as the warranty is pretty useless), or buy your own insurance.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Piaw buys a car
I buy a car once every 10 years or so. While there are some who enjoy the person-to-person haggling, I don't enjoy it. 10 years ago, I bought my Chrysler Convertible, and it's served me quite well, but this year, it's starting to cost a lot in repairs and mainteneance, so it was time to buy a new one. Selecting a car turned out to be quite easy, since John and Pamela Blayley picked out the Honda Fit as the only tiny car that can handle a full size tandem without couplers or an external rack. We did try out the Nissan Cube, and it didn't work. I also liked the way the Fit handled.
Here's the process I used to get a reasonable deal for the car. Note that the Fit was apparently one of the top sellers during the cash for clunkers program, so don't expect super good deals.
- Visit Edmunds.com, and select your car and zip code.
- Click "View Full Dealer Directory". This gives you all dealers within 50 miles.
- Copy and paste the specifications of the car into the text box, and fill out the details, for every dealer. Specify all details like trim level, transmission, and color preferences. (Annoyingly, most dealers won't actually read what you wrote, but since you're spamming everyone, you'll get a good chance of getting a fair number of reasonable responses.
- Visit Cars Direct. Select your model.
- Click "See our price"
- Click "Continue" on the Save with Cars Direct link. This is your backup price. If nobody else gives you this price, just buy it from Cars Direct!
- If your best price came from a dealer, you might try to drop the price further by calling another dealer close by and seeing if they'll match or beat it. You can play this game over the phone a couple of times or until you get sick of it.
- Confirm your final price over the phone and make your appointment.
When you show up, don't get talked into paying for features that the dealer installed and want to sell you as part of the package. It's not your fault they installed it. Don't get talked into extended warranties or anything like that. (Though in my case, there was one deal that I couldn't pass up --- a reimbursable extended warranty which meant that I was buying an extended bumper-to-bumper dealer warranty for 8 years for $50 and foregone interest on the premium --- given how low interest rates are, the NPV of foregone interest is very low)
Anyway, here's to hoping this new car lasts way more than 10 years!
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Review: Stories of Your Life and Others
I don't usually review short stories, since it takes less effort to read them than to read a review and then decide to buy them, but I'm more than happy to make an exception for Ted Chiang, and I feel an obligation to do so, since he's not prolific, and has never published a novel, so the collection Stories of Your Life and Others (which is now sadly out of print and can only be found as a used book --- check it out of the library if you can't get it otherwise) Some of the individual stories can be found on-line, and I've linked to those whenever possible.
Most short story collections are hit-or-miss. But this is Ted Chiang we're talking about, so every story is amazing, and excellent. The collection starts with the Tower of Babylon, an interesting take on the familiar biblical story. The ending is a surprise, but the tone is incredible. It's followed by Understand, a super-intelligence story with a twist. Division By Zero strays into Greg Egan territory, but in a complementary fashion (and though I dislike Egan's novels, being able to keep up with Egan in a math story is no small feat).
Story of Your Life, the title story, is easily one of my favorite alien contact short stories. The language used, the use of science as well as the narrative scheme is all put together in an amazing package --- you'll have to read it to believe it. Seventy-Two Letters is similarly interesting --- Victorian Science fiction done right, as it were --- about biology and genetics, of all things.
Hell is the Absence of God won the 2002 Hugo award, and rightly so. It postulates a world in which miracles do occur, and the presence of God is undeniable, and shows how much of a nightmare the world would be if God really did exist. Fantastic reading, and highly recommended.
The book wraps up with Liking what you see, a great little story about how nice the world would be if we could turn off our predilection to judging people by physical beauty. It's a great little piece, and well worth the time. It's followed by a bunch of notes about each individual story --- interesting background reading, and insight into what Chiang is thinking as he writes these stories.
There you go, a short story collection with no duds, by a fantastic writer. My brother luckily managed to buy the Kindle edition of this book when it was available for $9.99, and looking at the used prices now, it was a hell of a bargain. Highly recommended. Go check it out from the library now.
Most short story collections are hit-or-miss. But this is Ted Chiang we're talking about, so every story is amazing, and excellent. The collection starts with the Tower of Babylon, an interesting take on the familiar biblical story. The ending is a surprise, but the tone is incredible. It's followed by Understand, a super-intelligence story with a twist. Division By Zero strays into Greg Egan territory, but in a complementary fashion (and though I dislike Egan's novels, being able to keep up with Egan in a math story is no small feat).
Story of Your Life, the title story, is easily one of my favorite alien contact short stories. The language used, the use of science as well as the narrative scheme is all put together in an amazing package --- you'll have to read it to believe it. Seventy-Two Letters is similarly interesting --- Victorian Science fiction done right, as it were --- about biology and genetics, of all things.
Hell is the Absence of God won the 2002 Hugo award, and rightly so. It postulates a world in which miracles do occur, and the presence of God is undeniable, and shows how much of a nightmare the world would be if God really did exist. Fantastic reading, and highly recommended.
The book wraps up with Liking what you see, a great little story about how nice the world would be if we could turn off our predilection to judging people by physical beauty. It's a great little piece, and well worth the time. It's followed by a bunch of notes about each individual story --- interesting background reading, and insight into what Chiang is thinking as he writes these stories.
There you go, a short story collection with no duds, by a fantastic writer. My brother luckily managed to buy the Kindle edition of this book when it was available for $9.99, and looking at the used prices now, it was a hell of a bargain. Highly recommended. Go check it out from the library now.
Monday, October 26, 2009
Review: Enough
It is no secret that John Bogle is a hero to many investors, myself included. Enough is his book themed the current rapacious greed that seems to have taken over most of American society.
You might think that for someone like me (who has an incredibly low opinion of people in finance, and the profession in general), there's no way a financier could be a hero. But that is not true. Last I checked, Vanguard has well over $1 trillion in management. To put things in perspective, Fidelity has $1.5 trillian under management, which is enough to put Abigail Johnson, who owns 24% of Fidelity, well into the Forbes 400 list of richest people. John Bogle isn't even #400 on the list, and neither are his heirs. It truly takes a great man to organize a company so the benefits go to the customers, rather than to himself and his heirs.
The title of the book comes from Kurt Vonnegut's poetic obituary for Joseph Heller. When Vonnegut told Heller that the host of the party (a hedge fund manager) made more money in one day than Heller's novel re had earned in its entire history, Heller said, "I've got something he'll never have." In response to Vonnegut's "What on earth could that be?" Heller said, "The knolwedge that I've got enough."
Bogle starts off with an indictment of the entire financial industry, and it's a rant I entirely agree with --- unlike being an engineer (who creates things), a doctor (who heals people), a teacher, or any other professional, finance's contribution to society can only be subtractive --- whether a broker working on commission, a financial advisor taking a percentage of assets, or even merely lending money, a financier's take always comes out of the client's capital or gains. In fact, in the case of the hedge funds, the managers get 2% of assets every year (win or lose), a 20% off profits, and on top of that (through successful lobbying) pay 15% taxes on the money they make, unlike a school teacher who pays federal marginal tax rates no matter what.
What's more, the brain drain from physics and engineering to the financial field has cost society even more, as smart people go from building and making things to shuffling money from one end of the table to the other, while figuring out more and more ways for some of that money to land on their laps.
Bogle moves from there to other topics --- from chief executives padding their wallets at the expense of shareholders (a topic Warren Buffett has also ranted about), to how having wealth be the measure of success is really not satisfactory. Unfortunately, I think the only people who would actually pay attention to this are folks already capable of making that judgement for themselves.
I enjoyed this book, but it's probably not for everyone. It's short enough that it won't be a waste of time, though!
You might think that for someone like me (who has an incredibly low opinion of people in finance, and the profession in general), there's no way a financier could be a hero. But that is not true. Last I checked, Vanguard has well over $1 trillion in management. To put things in perspective, Fidelity has $1.5 trillian under management, which is enough to put Abigail Johnson, who owns 24% of Fidelity, well into the Forbes 400 list of richest people. John Bogle isn't even #400 on the list, and neither are his heirs. It truly takes a great man to organize a company so the benefits go to the customers, rather than to himself and his heirs.
The title of the book comes from Kurt Vonnegut's poetic obituary for Joseph Heller. When Vonnegut told Heller that the host of the party (a hedge fund manager) made more money in one day than Heller's novel re had earned in its entire history, Heller said, "I've got something he'll never have." In response to Vonnegut's "What on earth could that be?" Heller said, "The knolwedge that I've got enough."
Bogle starts off with an indictment of the entire financial industry, and it's a rant I entirely agree with --- unlike being an engineer (who creates things), a doctor (who heals people), a teacher, or any other professional, finance's contribution to society can only be subtractive --- whether a broker working on commission, a financial advisor taking a percentage of assets, or even merely lending money, a financier's take always comes out of the client's capital or gains. In fact, in the case of the hedge funds, the managers get 2% of assets every year (win or lose), a 20% off profits, and on top of that (through successful lobbying) pay 15% taxes on the money they make, unlike a school teacher who pays federal marginal tax rates no matter what.
What's more, the brain drain from physics and engineering to the financial field has cost society even more, as smart people go from building and making things to shuffling money from one end of the table to the other, while figuring out more and more ways for some of that money to land on their laps.
Bogle moves from there to other topics --- from chief executives padding their wallets at the expense of shareholders (a topic Warren Buffett has also ranted about), to how having wealth be the measure of success is really not satisfactory. Unfortunately, I think the only people who would actually pay attention to this are folks already capable of making that judgement for themselves.
I enjoyed this book, but it's probably not for everyone. It's short enough that it won't be a waste of time, though!
Monday, October 19, 2009
Review: The Luck Factor
After I read Richard Wiseman's article on how you can be lucky, I was intrigued enough to pick up his book on the topic, The Luck Factor.
Perhaps the ironic result of reading the book is that it's convinced me that there's no such thing as luck. The book starts off by convincing us that people who consider themselves lucky are in fact, actually not any better at picking lottery tickets, for instance --- it turns out that luck has nothing to do with chance.
However, Dr. Wiseman quickly shows us that behaviorally, lucky people do several things that are very different from what unlucky people do:
In one case, Wiseman set up an experiment where he invited both a lucky person and an unlucky person to a coffee shop, ostensibly to meet with an experimenter. Before each person arrived, they planted a 5 dollar note in front of the door to see if they would arrive. One of the folks in the coffee shop was a successful business man as well. The lucky person would show up, find the money, sit down next to someone, and start talking to them. The unlucky person would show up, walk past the money, and sit down silently not talking to anyone, and missing all the opportunities that had been set up. Wiseman set up more than one such experiment, and it's interesting to hear all the stories.
The section of the book I enjoyed the most was what Wiseman called luck school: he took a bunch of people who were unlucky, and tried to teach them to unlearn their habits so that they would start to see opportunities. In fact, it turns out it is possible to deliberately introduce variety into your life (by deliberately introducing randomness, for instance), meditate to improve your intuition, visualize your success, and all the other things that coaches have been after you to use. So unfortunately, you already know everything you needed to do to be lucky.
I enjoyed the book, but felt that reading his article already exposed me to 90% of the benefit, hence can only mildly recommend it.
Perhaps the ironic result of reading the book is that it's convinced me that there's no such thing as luck. The book starts off by convincing us that people who consider themselves lucky are in fact, actually not any better at picking lottery tickets, for instance --- it turns out that luck has nothing to do with chance.
However, Dr. Wiseman quickly shows us that behaviorally, lucky people do several things that are very different from what unlucky people do:
- They notice, create and react to opportunities. By deliberately introducing variety into their lives, and being open to new things, they create situations where they are exposed to people or ideas that they wouldn't have been exposed to otherwise.
- They listen to their intuition. In fact, they train their intuition actively.
- They persevere. One of the reasons they persevere is that they are optimistic about the future, which enables them to keep trying even when others have given up.
- They bounce back quickly from failures. The classic method of bouncing back here is to reframe a failure or an unlucky incident as something that would have happened for the best.
In one case, Wiseman set up an experiment where he invited both a lucky person and an unlucky person to a coffee shop, ostensibly to meet with an experimenter. Before each person arrived, they planted a 5 dollar note in front of the door to see if they would arrive. One of the folks in the coffee shop was a successful business man as well. The lucky person would show up, find the money, sit down next to someone, and start talking to them. The unlucky person would show up, walk past the money, and sit down silently not talking to anyone, and missing all the opportunities that had been set up. Wiseman set up more than one such experiment, and it's interesting to hear all the stories.
The section of the book I enjoyed the most was what Wiseman called luck school: he took a bunch of people who were unlucky, and tried to teach them to unlearn their habits so that they would start to see opportunities. In fact, it turns out it is possible to deliberately introduce variety into your life (by deliberately introducing randomness, for instance), meditate to improve your intuition, visualize your success, and all the other things that coaches have been after you to use. So unfortunately, you already know everything you needed to do to be lucky.
I enjoyed the book, but felt that reading his article already exposed me to 90% of the benefit, hence can only mildly recommend it.
Review: More than you know
More than you know is written by Michael J. Mauboussin, who teaches Security Analysis at Columbia University, the class that was pioneered by Benjamin Graham and graduated famous investors such as Warren Buffett. This is a collection of fifty essays about investing, with each essay being about 4 pages long, capable of being read in about 2 hours in total.
Yet it would probably be a mistake to just read the book in one sitting --- each essay by itself is worth contemplating for a little bit. For instance, the first few essays cover many of the same topics in Nassim Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, and yet does a better job of communicating Taleb's point than Taleb himself, in providing a decision tree for Taleb's reasoning.
Another essay points out that the market's participants is composed of many individuals, all with different time horizons, which plays a major role in your investment decisions, hence not only is a one size fits all approach is doomed to fail, but any mutual fund with high turnover is shooting for an extremely short term approach, one that long term investors should steer away from.
More essays explore behavioral finance, mean reversions, and the importance of diversity and intellectual curiosity when it comes to investing. Furthermore, he points out that while many financial models use the normal distribution for modeling stock market returns, the actual stock market more closely resembles a fractal distribution --- the implication of these fat tails is why million year floods occur every 10 years or so in the stock market. It also means that predicting stock market returns is fraught with danger. One interesting point he makes is that stable systems found in nature (such as bees in beehives) are composed of individuals that were selected for taking into account how their behavior affects the hive (i.e., fundamentally altruistic with respect to the hive), while markets are unstable because they rely on individuals who are only looking for their own benefit regardless of what happens to the market as a whole. That degree of selfishness naturally leads to bubbles and instability, even though over the long haul markets are relatively resilient.
The last part of the book explores the power law and the implication for large cap companies. This is particularly relevant for fast growing companies that are in the fortune 50 --- because they so dominate the S&P 500, they have a hard time out-performing the index, which means that owning those companies individually is less ideal than owning the index itself.
All in all, I found that this book gave me a lot to think about, and I will look for more books by Mauboussin in the future. Recommended.
Yet it would probably be a mistake to just read the book in one sitting --- each essay by itself is worth contemplating for a little bit. For instance, the first few essays cover many of the same topics in Nassim Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, and yet does a better job of communicating Taleb's point than Taleb himself, in providing a decision tree for Taleb's reasoning.
Another essay points out that the market's participants is composed of many individuals, all with different time horizons, which plays a major role in your investment decisions, hence not only is a one size fits all approach is doomed to fail, but any mutual fund with high turnover is shooting for an extremely short term approach, one that long term investors should steer away from.
More essays explore behavioral finance, mean reversions, and the importance of diversity and intellectual curiosity when it comes to investing. Furthermore, he points out that while many financial models use the normal distribution for modeling stock market returns, the actual stock market more closely resembles a fractal distribution --- the implication of these fat tails is why million year floods occur every 10 years or so in the stock market. It also means that predicting stock market returns is fraught with danger. One interesting point he makes is that stable systems found in nature (such as bees in beehives) are composed of individuals that were selected for taking into account how their behavior affects the hive (i.e., fundamentally altruistic with respect to the hive), while markets are unstable because they rely on individuals who are only looking for their own benefit regardless of what happens to the market as a whole. That degree of selfishness naturally leads to bubbles and instability, even though over the long haul markets are relatively resilient.
The last part of the book explores the power law and the implication for large cap companies. This is particularly relevant for fast growing companies that are in the fortune 50 --- because they so dominate the S&P 500, they have a hard time out-performing the index, which means that owning those companies individually is less ideal than owning the index itself.
All in all, I found that this book gave me a lot to think about, and I will look for more books by Mauboussin in the future. Recommended.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Gastronauts Launch Party
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| Gastronauts |
Nate Keller and Mirit Cohen were two of the most talented chefs at Google, so when they sent me an invite to the launch party for their food service, Gastronauts, I got very excited and immediately blocked off the evening.
The meal served was absolutely outstanding. When I visited Paris last year, I noted how various restaurants, despite being really good, were outdone by various Google cafetarias. Well, this restaurant won't be outdone any time soon, that's for sure. We started out with a mushroom bisque with toasted garlic and fried almonds, which was then followed by smoked salmon on a bit of bagel bread with fried capers and wasabi, were bedazzled by a triplet of fruit pairings --- guava with pear, cactus fruit with pear, and pomegranate on a grape jelly. The explosion in my mouth with the guava and pear pairing was an out of body experience. The main dish was ribs on polenta garnished with tomatoes with a chocolate sauce. I think I started salivating with the description and didn't stop until every morsel was off my plate and in my tummy. The desert was a pumpkin panna cotta, cream, and nutmeg, with a cookie. You had to take the panna cotta, add the cream, put it in your mouth, bite of a piece of the cookie, and then sip the nutmeg, a complicated sequence that paid its rewards in the form of a burst of flavor in your palate.
Mirit and Nate say they'll be launching a retail operation soon, so if you live in San Francisco, I think you should plan on a visit! Highly recommended.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Reverse Brain Drain?
There's always been a crap load of doom-saying about Silicon Valley, and the latest one by Vivek Wadhwa talks about how Chinese and Indian "young guns" are returning to the mother country.
This sort of thing has been around for a long time. For instance, Ed Yourdon wrote Decline and Fall of the American Programmer in 1992, just as I was graduating college with (you guessed it!) a degree in Computer Science. 1992! Within 3 years we had the internet revolution, and the poor guy, rather than recanting, wrote another book so you could pay more money to see why he was wrong. (Read Peter Norvig's review of the book at the above link. It's a hoot!)
It's very tempting to write off California and Silicon Valley (especially right now with an unemployment of 12%), but it's always reinvented itself. It's no a coincidence that when Paul Graham settled on only one location for Y-combinator, it had to be Silicon Valley. No where else is failure not regarded as a black mark on your career, and no where else can you get lawyers who'll help you out in exchange for startup stock. In fact, when my friends and I discuss startups and places that attract engineers, even San Francisco startups get the short-shrift.
My take on this current cycle of doom and gloom is that the Sanjay Mavinkurves (mistakenly identified as an engineer in the New York Times article --- he's actually a product manager) of this world will continue to fight tooth and nail to stay in Silicon Valley, while the ones who return will eventually learn that performance is extremely contextual, something that American culture doesn't recognize, but Silicon Valley does --- as evidenced by Facebook's move from Boston to Palo Alto once they got funded. (Also make sure you read the New York Times all the way to the end --- look at the number of corrections necessary --- all reflection of the eagerness of the media to portray Silicon Valley as being in trouble over immigrants)
This sort of thing has been around for a long time. For instance, Ed Yourdon wrote Decline and Fall of the American Programmer in 1992, just as I was graduating college with (you guessed it!) a degree in Computer Science. 1992! Within 3 years we had the internet revolution, and the poor guy, rather than recanting, wrote another book so you could pay more money to see why he was wrong. (Read Peter Norvig's review of the book at the above link. It's a hoot!)
It's very tempting to write off California and Silicon Valley (especially right now with an unemployment of 12%), but it's always reinvented itself. It's no a coincidence that when Paul Graham settled on only one location for Y-combinator, it had to be Silicon Valley. No where else is failure not regarded as a black mark on your career, and no where else can you get lawyers who'll help you out in exchange for startup stock. In fact, when my friends and I discuss startups and places that attract engineers, even San Francisco startups get the short-shrift.
My take on this current cycle of doom and gloom is that the Sanjay Mavinkurves (mistakenly identified as an engineer in the New York Times article --- he's actually a product manager) of this world will continue to fight tooth and nail to stay in Silicon Valley, while the ones who return will eventually learn that performance is extremely contextual, something that American culture doesn't recognize, but Silicon Valley does --- as evidenced by Facebook's move from Boston to Palo Alto once they got funded. (Also make sure you read the New York Times all the way to the end --- look at the number of corrections necessary --- all reflection of the eagerness of the media to portray Silicon Valley as being in trouble over immigrants)
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Review: Kool-Stop Salmon Brake Pads
I must have done at least 100,000 miles of cycling by now, and the one piece of safety equipment that I've always relied on was brake pads. They're unobtrusive, doing their jobs quietly --- unless they're cantilever brakes, in which case they don't do their jobs, or do it only grudgingly and noisily.
Over the last 10 years, I've been using Kool-Stop Salmon brake pads. They worked so well that I don't mention them, not even in the substantial information packets I provide to fellow cyclists on grand tours.
Well, during the recent Tour of Hokkaido, I once again forgot to mention them, and during one rainy descent, I commented on how smooth and easy Japanese descents was. No one else agreed with me, to my surprise! Well, it turned out that I was the only one running Kool-Stop Salmon pads. Everyone else was running the OEM pads (not surprising --- it takes a long time to wear out brake pads in California), and those were apparently not stopping the bikes, thereby giving my friends a scary experience.
Come to think about it, during the 2007 Tour of the Alps, and 2008 Tour Across France, the only time I was beating my companions down the hill was when it was raining. Again, I was the only one running Kool-Stop pads. Even if you don't ride in the rain, there's still a good reason to replace them --- here's a comparison between the Shimano OEM pads versus the Kool-stops. Yep, those OEM pads tear up your rims, so your wheels will last longer with the Kool-stops than with the OEM pads.
Given that they're only $6.95 on Amazon.com with free shipping on purchases over $25, they're a cheap and easy upgrade to your brakes, and pay for themselves on the first rainy descent.
Over the last 10 years, I've been using Kool-Stop Salmon brake pads. They worked so well that I don't mention them, not even in the substantial information packets I provide to fellow cyclists on grand tours.
Well, during the recent Tour of Hokkaido, I once again forgot to mention them, and during one rainy descent, I commented on how smooth and easy Japanese descents was. No one else agreed with me, to my surprise! Well, it turned out that I was the only one running Kool-Stop Salmon pads. Everyone else was running the OEM pads (not surprising --- it takes a long time to wear out brake pads in California), and those were apparently not stopping the bikes, thereby giving my friends a scary experience.
Come to think about it, during the 2007 Tour of the Alps, and 2008 Tour Across France, the only time I was beating my companions down the hill was when it was raining. Again, I was the only one running Kool-Stop pads. Even if you don't ride in the rain, there's still a good reason to replace them --- here's a comparison between the Shimano OEM pads versus the Kool-stops. Yep, those OEM pads tear up your rims, so your wheels will last longer with the Kool-stops than with the OEM pads.
Given that they're only $6.95 on Amazon.com with free shipping on purchases over $25, they're a cheap and easy upgrade to your brakes, and pay for themselves on the first rainy descent.
Updated: If your brakes are cheap and don't come with brake holders, splurge and spend $19.13 + shipping on the Dura Type Brake Holders.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Review: The Numerati
The Numerati is Stephen Baker's exploration of the world of large scale information technology. Unfortunately, his approach supports my thesis that the world is now too complicated for English majors to understand.
Every topic that he covers is touched extremely shallowly --- he'd cover the marketing approach by interviewing a couple of folks who manage advertising campaigns or product placement in supermarkets, but not the underlying algorithms and scale that made it possible. In fact, at one point he describes a smart shopping cart, but doesn't explore the economics behind it and why they haven't become prevalent (shopping carts with too much technology would get stolen for their screens, for instance).
He covers a bit about Google, but again, tries to get away with mentioning SEOs (Search Engine Optimizers), but doesn't explain how they work or even interview one. The technology behind all this is hand-waved (he drops names like Support Vector Machines but doesn't demonstrate that he understands even basics such as Bayesian learning)
What annoys me is that even the interviews (which many English/Journalism majors do well) are also really shallow, with none of the depth of Carrie Grimes' profile in the New York Times.
Ultimately, however, the biggest disappointment was that Stephen Baker clearly doesn't understand what all these corporations are doing, which is to distill specific insights into algorithms that can scale. The problem with doing so is manifold --- the distillation is at best imperfect, and doesn't come with the intuitive insight that the best human judgement can render. (A look at the adsense ads on this blog will dispel any feeling that such algorithms have even matured to the point that they are useful) That fact is why Warren Buffett is still beating out hedge funds with lots of computers, software engineers, and statisticians.
Not recommended --- you can do better by sitting down with any of the thousands of Computer Scientists who do this stuff for a living and having a casual chat. It'll be more fun and won't be a waste of your time.
Every topic that he covers is touched extremely shallowly --- he'd cover the marketing approach by interviewing a couple of folks who manage advertising campaigns or product placement in supermarkets, but not the underlying algorithms and scale that made it possible. In fact, at one point he describes a smart shopping cart, but doesn't explore the economics behind it and why they haven't become prevalent (shopping carts with too much technology would get stolen for their screens, for instance).
He covers a bit about Google, but again, tries to get away with mentioning SEOs (Search Engine Optimizers), but doesn't explain how they work or even interview one. The technology behind all this is hand-waved (he drops names like Support Vector Machines but doesn't demonstrate that he understands even basics such as Bayesian learning)
What annoys me is that even the interviews (which many English/Journalism majors do well) are also really shallow, with none of the depth of Carrie Grimes' profile in the New York Times.
Ultimately, however, the biggest disappointment was that Stephen Baker clearly doesn't understand what all these corporations are doing, which is to distill specific insights into algorithms that can scale. The problem with doing so is manifold --- the distillation is at best imperfect, and doesn't come with the intuitive insight that the best human judgement can render. (A look at the adsense ads on this blog will dispel any feeling that such algorithms have even matured to the point that they are useful) That fact is why Warren Buffett is still beating out hedge funds with lots of computers, software engineers, and statisticians.
Not recommended --- you can do better by sitting down with any of the thousands of Computer Scientists who do this stuff for a living and having a casual chat. It'll be more fun and won't be a waste of your time.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Upgrades should always have a positive connotation
The sad secret of the cycling cottage industry is that they don't cater to the avid cyclist, i.e., the person who rides about 5000 miles a year or more. They cater to the frequent upgrader --- the guy who buys a new bike every 2-3 years, upgrading to the latest and greatest whenever he can.
Our tandem has about 15,000 miles on it. During that time, we've worn out chains, tires, chainrings, and cassettes, all in relatively short order. One incident recently had me by the side of the road piercing together a 9-speed chain that had been fatigued by riding a worn out cassette aggressively and then shifted under load. Not having a replacement 11-34 9-speed cassette handy, I replaced it with a 12-27 from one of the singles, and went on-line to look for cassettes.
The cost of 9-speed chains and 9-speed cassettes had gone up quite a bit since the last time I bought replacements, and thinking about the situation, I can't think of a time when that 9-speed cassette really bought us anything. The result, I ordered a bunch of 8-speed cassettes at $20 each, and yesterday, upgraded my 9-speed tandem to 8-speed. I won't bother upgrading the 9-speed chain yet, but when it finally goes, it too, will be replaced with an 8-speed chain.
From the "industry"'s point of view, I'm downgrading my bike, but in terms of cost, expected life time, robustness, and everything else that I care about, it's an upgrade. Yes, there are many who can't wait for the latest 10-speed systems with electronic shifting and what not, but for me anyway, the satisfaction of being able to have a running bike that I don't spend a lot of time working on is a big plus.
Our tandem has about 15,000 miles on it. During that time, we've worn out chains, tires, chainrings, and cassettes, all in relatively short order. One incident recently had me by the side of the road piercing together a 9-speed chain that had been fatigued by riding a worn out cassette aggressively and then shifted under load. Not having a replacement 11-34 9-speed cassette handy, I replaced it with a 12-27 from one of the singles, and went on-line to look for cassettes.
The cost of 9-speed chains and 9-speed cassettes had gone up quite a bit since the last time I bought replacements, and thinking about the situation, I can't think of a time when that 9-speed cassette really bought us anything. The result, I ordered a bunch of 8-speed cassettes at $20 each, and yesterday, upgraded my 9-speed tandem to 8-speed. I won't bother upgrading the 9-speed chain yet, but when it finally goes, it too, will be replaced with an 8-speed chain.
From the "industry"'s point of view, I'm downgrading my bike, but in terms of cost, expected life time, robustness, and everything else that I care about, it's an upgrade. Yes, there are many who can't wait for the latest 10-speed systems with electronic shifting and what not, but for me anyway, the satisfaction of being able to have a running bike that I don't spend a lot of time working on is a big plus.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Sting Followup
After my sting and swelling reaction, my allergist did not want to test me for a month, so I went touring in Japan and came back before getting the skin test.
The skin test tested negatively for bees and yellow-jackets, but positively for mixed vespids and wasps. Because of a recent lawsuit involving the reliability of skin tests, my doctor also made me get a blood test. Strangely enough, yellow jackets also came up positive on the blood test, so in this particular case, I'm grateful for that medical malpractice suit.
While I was at it, since I was going to have to get shots anyway, I decided to go for a skin test of all my other allergies and get inoculated for those as well. The result: I'm allergic to everything except 2 kinds of mold. So now I'll end up with 3 shots twice a week for several weeks.
According to my doctor, the sting inoculations will be over in 2-3 years, but the environmental allergy shots have to go on for quite some time. In any case, I can't wait for the day when I don't have to carry any Epipens!
The skin test tested negatively for bees and yellow-jackets, but positively for mixed vespids and wasps. Because of a recent lawsuit involving the reliability of skin tests, my doctor also made me get a blood test. Strangely enough, yellow jackets also came up positive on the blood test, so in this particular case, I'm grateful for that medical malpractice suit.
While I was at it, since I was going to have to get shots anyway, I decided to go for a skin test of all my other allergies and get inoculated for those as well. The result: I'm allergic to everything except 2 kinds of mold. So now I'll end up with 3 shots twice a week for several weeks.
According to my doctor, the sting inoculations will be over in 2-3 years, but the environmental allergy shots have to go on for quite some time. In any case, I can't wait for the day when I don't have to carry any Epipens!
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
International Kindle Launches
The big news is that the Kindle went international yesterday! For $279 and a $2 delivery charge per book (and a $5 per week delivery charge for periodicals like newspapers), you can now have books, newspapers, etc., all sent to your Kindle while travelling. No more running out of reading materials in Hong Kong!
Furthermore, my friends in Germany can now own a Kindle! I was surprised by how expensive English books are in Germany, so I think this is a huge deal as well. I expect German adoption of Kindle to outpace that of the US by a significant margin because the payback period will be much lower. Books are incredibly expensive in most of the rest of the world.
Another bit of news that went soaring past most analysts' heads is that Lonely Planet travel guides are now available on the Kindle store. This will drive massive adoption in the "backpacking through Europe" summer student crowd, since not only can you now buy those lonely planets as you go, the weight savings are massive (those lonely planet country guides check in at a pound each!), and you can now use search on those massive tomes, which was something you never could do before when they were paper.
I've been resisting upgrades to the Kindle (mostly because of the loss of the replaceable battery and SD card), but I guess the international version will be a worthwhile upgrade for me the next time I travel.
Furthermore, my friends in Germany can now own a Kindle! I was surprised by how expensive English books are in Germany, so I think this is a huge deal as well. I expect German adoption of Kindle to outpace that of the US by a significant margin because the payback period will be much lower. Books are incredibly expensive in most of the rest of the world.
Another bit of news that went soaring past most analysts' heads is that Lonely Planet travel guides are now available on the Kindle store. This will drive massive adoption in the "backpacking through Europe" summer student crowd, since not only can you now buy those lonely planets as you go, the weight savings are massive (those lonely planet country guides check in at a pound each!), and you can now use search on those massive tomes, which was something you never could do before when they were paper.
I've been resisting upgrades to the Kindle (mostly because of the loss of the replaceable battery and SD card), but I guess the international version will be a worthwhile upgrade for me the next time I travel.
Sunday, October 04, 2009
San Jose Rock & Roll 2009
| 4235 Sy Usagichan M 30-34 | |||||||||||
| Half Marathon Start: Gun 8:03:09 Chip 8:07:44 | |||||||||||
| Splits: | 5 Km | 10 Km | 10 Mi | Finish | O'All | Sex | Div | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Times: | 29:18 | 58:38 | 1:34:41 | 2:04:35 | 3560 | 2351 | 0 | ||||
| Pace: | 9:26 | 9:27 | 9:29 | 9:31 | |||||||
i'm quite happy about this time in spite of it being my slowest time of the 3 times I've done this!
That's mostly because I had the least amount of training and still knocked this one out. Strong up till Mile 10, whereby I slowed down a little, but otherwise I'm amazed at how consistent my pace was! I have slowed down since 3 years ago from running 6.7 mph to 6.3, and 9:33 per mile is the pace for 6.3 mph!
My training this year has been rather haphazard, doing 5 mile runs about 2 to 3 times a week and making up the rest of the other workouts on the stairmaster.
I probably could have pushed for a 2 hour finish time, but I didn't want to hurt myself either. At this juncture, I'm still feeling pretty good!
Anyhow, I'm stoked that I finished with as weak a training as I did!
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