One of my favorite financial bloggers, PFBlog writes about spending 10 hours a year on his taxes despite his employer, Microsoft, paying for KPMG to file his taxes for him (what a great perk!). I have lots of friends who pay accountants despite not having taxes as complicated as his.
Like him, I always do my taxes (I also do a few other people's), and I find that it is essential in order to understand the overall picture behind taxes, how they work, and what changes year after year. On top of that, by doing taxes yourself in TurboTax, you also gain access to the wonderful tax audit protection service provided by Tax Resources, Inc at an amazing price.
My aunt is an accountant, and despite her years spent preparing taxes for corporations, TurboTax outperforms her in terms of getting money back. Outsourcing your taxes is a lot like outsourcing your financial planning: without a clear understanding of what you are doing, you will not get satisfactory results.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Monday, October 15, 2007
US Productivity Slowing
People like Paul Graham are big fans of inequality. Reading his essays, one feels like if we could only return to the levels of inequality found in the gilded age (or in India or Argentina or Brazil of today), productivity would improve dramatically and we'll generate more wealth than ever before.
Modern economics research, however, gives the lie to this sort of right wing propaganda. (Modern happiness studies too, show that countries where the Gini coefficient is low are happier societies)
Even worse: The productivity numbers are likely even worse than they look. The most important reason is that the official productivity figures don't handle the rapid depreciation of new technology very well.
As Paul Krugman writes in his latest blog entry, you have to squint to spot the so-called lagging of the European socialist economies with respect to U.S. productivity.
Modern economics research, however, gives the lie to this sort of right wing propaganda. (Modern happiness studies too, show that countries where the Gini coefficient is low are happier societies)
Even worse: The productivity numbers are likely even worse than they look. The most important reason is that the official productivity figures don't handle the rapid depreciation of new technology very well.
As Paul Krugman writes in his latest blog entry, you have to squint to spot the so-called lagging of the European socialist economies with respect to U.S. productivity.
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Review: Order of the Stick Print Comics
D&D players have always been insecure. My favorite example is that over in the Enworld Forums, every so often there'll be a thread about how D&D or Role Playing Games (RPGs) are losing players and becoming an extinct species.
The evidence, however, is that D&D is going strong, and the number one exhibit for that case has to be the Order of the Stick web-comics, which make so many D&D references (right down to edition changes) that most geeks wouldn't even bother reading it unless they were D&D players.
The Order of the Stick has become so popular that it has spawned two print-only books:
On the Origin of the PCs introduces the player characters, or rather, the protagonists. In black and white (to lower costs, and to reflect the flash-back nature of the story), it provides the back story behind each of the protagonists and their coming together. Along the way, it makes fun of the usual D&D tropes (dark strangers in taverns anyone?), as well as the usual jabs at the D&D rules. While I think it falls short of being as funny as the web-comic, it is still very funny.
Start of Darkness details the villains, and surprisingly enough, was more interesting than the protagonists. Though as any DM who has spent gobs of time detailing the backstory of his villains who rarely survive more than one encounter with the PCs will tell you, this is all too common. In particular, the goblin known as "Redcloak" has a tragic story and this makes the web comic even more entertaining.
As you might have guessed, you can read most of these on-line, but you're not going to enjoy these comics unless you like D&D, and if you are not a current player, you will miss many jokes and references. But yes, Scarlet, I expect you are current enough to get most of the jokes.
The evidence, however, is that D&D is going strong, and the number one exhibit for that case has to be the Order of the Stick web-comics, which make so many D&D references (right down to edition changes) that most geeks wouldn't even bother reading it unless they were D&D players.
The Order of the Stick has become so popular that it has spawned two print-only books:
On the Origin of the PCs introduces the player characters, or rather, the protagonists. In black and white (to lower costs, and to reflect the flash-back nature of the story), it provides the back story behind each of the protagonists and their coming together. Along the way, it makes fun of the usual D&D tropes (dark strangers in taverns anyone?), as well as the usual jabs at the D&D rules. While I think it falls short of being as funny as the web-comic, it is still very funny.
Start of Darkness details the villains, and surprisingly enough, was more interesting than the protagonists. Though as any DM who has spent gobs of time detailing the backstory of his villains who rarely survive more than one encounter with the PCs will tell you, this is all too common. In particular, the goblin known as "Redcloak" has a tragic story and this makes the web comic even more entertaining.
As you might have guessed, you can read most of these on-line, but you're not going to enjoy these comics unless you like D&D, and if you are not a current player, you will miss many jokes and references. But yes, Scarlet, I expect you are current enough to get most of the jokes.
1:57:26 for 13.1 miles
Wow. Its been one year since I started on this journey of "lets see how many events I can do in a year" spree, and this is pretty much the last event I wanted to do. It started from last year's Rock n Roll San Jose and ended with this year's Rock n Roll San Jose. In between, I did a full marathon, a Europe bike trip, and was supposed to do a tri, but got sick the weekend of, so I skipped that.
But still, 3 events, and 1 long bike ride later, I can say I'm quite satisfied with my physical achievements this year. I believe I ran a slightly faster time last year, but this time I had a running partner, and that made a huge difference in the amount of fun I had.
This year's event was quite packed, and it'll be interesting to see exactly how many registered runners there are...I estimate around 12,000, but could be slightly more.
We started with the 2:00 pace group, who did not start at a 2:00 pace, I believe they were going at a closer to 1:50 pace, but around mile 6 or so, they slowed down while we sped up. Had a gel at the mile 6 water station and felt buzzed enough that mile 7 through 10 felt like a breeze. Mile 10 through 13 was a bit more painful and I started to feel a slight pain in my left feet while my partner's calves were starting to lock up a little.
In the end, we finished within 20 seconds of one another! And for her very first 1/2 marathon its an incredible achivement! Props to her!
Next up....I don't know whats next up, but I plan to keep on running 1/2s for a while to come.....Fulls, not so much. They're not as fun, and although more than twice the achivement, I think I might just be satisified with running a single full in this lifetime. =)
Until I convince myself otherwise of course. =)
The contrast between this year and last years is mostly in the matter of training. Last year I overtrained, and this year, I trained just right. Last year at the end, I felt like I could run another 6 miles, this year, around mile 13, I was very glad I only had one tenth of a mile to go...
I'm not sure if its a great thing or not, but I'm very very happy I finished under 2:00 still....
But still, 3 events, and 1 long bike ride later, I can say I'm quite satisfied with my physical achievements this year. I believe I ran a slightly faster time last year, but this time I had a running partner, and that made a huge difference in the amount of fun I had.
This year's event was quite packed, and it'll be interesting to see exactly how many registered runners there are...I estimate around 12,000, but could be slightly more.
We started with the 2:00 pace group, who did not start at a 2:00 pace, I believe they were going at a closer to 1:50 pace, but around mile 6 or so, they slowed down while we sped up. Had a gel at the mile 6 water station and felt buzzed enough that mile 7 through 10 felt like a breeze. Mile 10 through 13 was a bit more painful and I started to feel a slight pain in my left feet while my partner's calves were starting to lock up a little.
In the end, we finished within 20 seconds of one another! And for her very first 1/2 marathon its an incredible achivement! Props to her!
Next up....I don't know whats next up, but I plan to keep on running 1/2s for a while to come.....Fulls, not so much. They're not as fun, and although more than twice the achivement, I think I might just be satisified with running a single full in this lifetime. =)
Until I convince myself otherwise of course. =)
The contrast between this year and last years is mostly in the matter of training. Last year I overtrained, and this year, I trained just right. Last year at the end, I felt like I could run another 6 miles, this year, around mile 13, I was very glad I only had one tenth of a mile to go...
I'm not sure if its a great thing or not, but I'm very very happy I finished under 2:00 still....
Monday, October 08, 2007
Feeling wealthy
I've never felt wealthy. Not when I paid cash for my first car back in 1999 (near the height of the internet bubble). The benefit of that was that when the bubble burst in 2001, I didn't feel poor either.
I didn't feel wealthy when I wrote Google a check to exercise my stock options, a month after I started at the company, wiping out a couple of years worth of savings. (Yes, some loved ones did raise an eyebrow, but it was a safe investment, as safe as any such investment can be)
I didn't feel wealthy at Google's IPO. I did write a check to pay off my mom's mortgage, which was a rather smart move I was making the monthly payments anyway, and the mortgage was at 8% or so and refinancing was impossible since nobody wanted to refinance for so little money.
I didn't even feel wealthy when I started shopping for a custom frame. For someone who rides much more than he drives, even a new custom bike every year doesn't come close to the cost of a car.
But a few weeks ago Lisa and I decided to engage a cleaning service --- we were just overwhelmed by all the housework that we had to do that we just didn't enjoy doing. We weren't good at it, and we weren't good about it. And I looked at my assets and thought: "Ok, let's find out how much a cleaning service is, and throw money at the problem to make it go away." We asked the concierge at work for a recommendation, called him up, and he showed up to give us a quote last week, and they came by today and cleaned up the house.
Lisa's reaction at the results when she came home was one of amazement. She got on the phone with the housecleaning service and raved at the owner with praise for a good 20 minutes. I was pretty impressed. It felt like coming to a B&B, everything all laid out, the sinks polished, etc. So for the first time in our lives, at least, we felt wealthy.
The thing is, we live in a small Silicon Valley apartment. The quote for the service was embarrassingly small. We could have afforded it ages ago, but it always felt like a luxury, and indeed it is one. This little luxury, more than any object we've ever purchased, wasn't just an object, it was time away from doing things we didn't enjoy doing, yet done with amazing professionalism. So if you want to feel wealthy, treat yourself to a really good cleaning service.
I didn't feel wealthy when I wrote Google a check to exercise my stock options, a month after I started at the company, wiping out a couple of years worth of savings. (Yes, some loved ones did raise an eyebrow, but it was a safe investment, as safe as any such investment can be)
I didn't feel wealthy at Google's IPO. I did write a check to pay off my mom's mortgage, which was a rather smart move I was making the monthly payments anyway, and the mortgage was at 8% or so and refinancing was impossible since nobody wanted to refinance for so little money.
I didn't even feel wealthy when I started shopping for a custom frame. For someone who rides much more than he drives, even a new custom bike every year doesn't come close to the cost of a car.
But a few weeks ago Lisa and I decided to engage a cleaning service --- we were just overwhelmed by all the housework that we had to do that we just didn't enjoy doing. We weren't good at it, and we weren't good about it. And I looked at my assets and thought: "Ok, let's find out how much a cleaning service is, and throw money at the problem to make it go away." We asked the concierge at work for a recommendation, called him up, and he showed up to give us a quote last week, and they came by today and cleaned up the house.
Lisa's reaction at the results when she came home was one of amazement. She got on the phone with the housecleaning service and raved at the owner with praise for a good 20 minutes. I was pretty impressed. It felt like coming to a B&B, everything all laid out, the sinks polished, etc. So for the first time in our lives, at least, we felt wealthy.
The thing is, we live in a small Silicon Valley apartment. The quote for the service was embarrassingly small. We could have afforded it ages ago, but it always felt like a luxury, and indeed it is one. This little luxury, more than any object we've ever purchased, wasn't just an object, it was time away from doing things we didn't enjoy doing, yet done with amazing professionalism. So if you want to feel wealthy, treat yourself to a really good cleaning service.
Sunday, October 07, 2007
Review: The Other Boleyn Girl
This is a story of sibling rivalry and ambition, told through the lens of Mary Boleyn, the sister of the historical Anne Boleyn, the second wife of Henry VIII, and the first to be beheaded.
The story portrays Mary Boleyn as the heroine of the story, whom at the age of fourteen was the King's mistress. Unlike the historical Mary Boleyn, the fictional one is portrayed as the pawn of her family's ambition, to be bedded and wedded as the family needs and as the men design.
When Mary's sister Anne shows up in court, she demonstrates her ambition, first by seducing Henry Percy, getting exiled from court for her troubles, and then upon her return, upending her sister's claim on the King by displaying a shrewd manipulation of Henry VIII. The book portrays Mary Boleyn's maternal instincts as opposed to Anne Boleyn's intelligence, temper, and ability to manipulate others. It is quite obvious what values Phillipa Gregory (the author) holds dear.
The novel succeeds in manipulating us to feel that the downfall of Queen Anne was deserved and that the place of a woman is in the home and in bringing up children, not in working on her ambitions. Being a period piece, obviously I cannot fault Gregory for bringing in all the homophobia, the feeling of scandal when the King divorces his former Queen, etc., but I suspect those of us who live in the modern age will read it and be thankful that we were born quite a bit later.
The story portrays Mary Boleyn as the heroine of the story, whom at the age of fourteen was the King's mistress. Unlike the historical Mary Boleyn, the fictional one is portrayed as the pawn of her family's ambition, to be bedded and wedded as the family needs and as the men design.
When Mary's sister Anne shows up in court, she demonstrates her ambition, first by seducing Henry Percy, getting exiled from court for her troubles, and then upon her return, upending her sister's claim on the King by displaying a shrewd manipulation of Henry VIII. The book portrays Mary Boleyn's maternal instincts as opposed to Anne Boleyn's intelligence, temper, and ability to manipulate others. It is quite obvious what values Phillipa Gregory (the author) holds dear.
The novel succeeds in manipulating us to feel that the downfall of Queen Anne was deserved and that the place of a woman is in the home and in bringing up children, not in working on her ambitions. Being a period piece, obviously I cannot fault Gregory for bringing in all the homophobia, the feeling of scandal when the King divorces his former Queen, etc., but I suspect those of us who live in the modern age will read it and be thankful that we were born quite a bit later.
Friday, October 05, 2007
Building a custom bike, Part III
This is the final revision. What happened was that my fork builder, Black Sheep Bikes gave Carl different dimensions than the actual fork itself, so when the fork itself showed up, Carl measured it and revised the drawing. Everything looks good (now the head tube is longer), and it's almost time for me to start buying parts for the new bike. Since the parts are mostly coming off the Fuji Team SL, I'll really only need a new stem and some spacers. (Carl's also selling me a silver Chris King headset to go along with the frame)
If this is a replacement for my touring bike, why am I putting the Fuji's parts on it? The theory is that this will really be my do-everything bike. The Fuji's parts are lighter, and I'm not looking at any major bike tours in the near future, so I might as well make this the light day riding bike first. For daily commuting, STIs work just fine, and I can swap in the seat post, wheels and lights from the Heron. On weekends, lighter wheels on the bike, the lights come off, and I put on the carbon seat post instead of the B-17. The entire transformation should take 10 minutes.
For touring, I'll swap in a triple chainring crank, a bottom bracket to go along with it, bar-end shifters (a whole new handlebar set, actually, with carbon brake levers, etc), and the bike will be ready to go! If I have to do this a lot I'll work out some cable splitters and find a way to switch between double and triple cranks easily (this can be accomplished with the external bearing integrated cranksets, but unfortunately a move like that will cost a lot!). Either that, or learn to live with a 27" gear, which might be feasible if the bike is light enough. I will have to run a light tour in February or March to figure that out.
Monday, October 01, 2007
Review: The Birth of Plenty
This is William Bernstein's book analyzing the development of economies in nations and regions, the pre-requisites, and the implications for modern economies. Why did the industrial revolution happen? What are the pre-requisites? Why do modern economies appear to have a flat 2% growth rate? Is this sustainable? What about the Bottom Billion?
Bernstein's thesis is that there are four requirements for a modern, industrial economy:
I think anyone would find it difficult to argue with the first 2 requirements of prosperity. The experiments with Communism have found that without property rights, human nature just does not have the intrinsic motivation to work to produce what others want. An examination of modern contributions to well being also demonstrates that without the scientific world view, it is difficult to come up with new theories or technologies that truly improve the human condition (when was the last invention to come out of a fundamentalist mindset?).
The last 2, however, seem to me to be natural consequence of the first two. Once you've set up a good incentive system, human ingenuity will come up with good capital markets and transportation system. I am not a historian, so I won't say much about part 2 of the book, but I found it to be good reading and an illustrations of the principles involved.
The last part of the book will be more controversial, and is part of the argument between William Easterly and Jeff Sachs about development and aid. If Bernstein's thesis is right, then not only is aid in the form of food and medical improvements not helpful for developing countries, but they are harmful. A nation caught in the Malthusian trap with an increasing population just increases the number of miserable people without improving prospects for growth. This is something very important to understand: without economic development, all you get when you improve mortality rates and health is a lot more miserable people. Instead, what Bernstein prescribes is first establishing the rule of law so that incentives for people are directed towards improving productivity rather than attempting to undermine the system or corrupting it by becoming rent-seekers (gate keepers, or government bureaucrats living off bribes). Only after the rule of law has been established, with independent judiciaries can more education (providing the modern mindset), more AID (money to prime the capital markets), or more infrastructure help.
This is an extraordinary claim, and of course would be difficult to prove, but Bernstein provides two examples, both dictatorships that imposed a rule of law first, and the resulting economic prosperity eventually led to the overthrowing of the dictators themselves. (Hint to future dictators: keep your people miserable --- happy and prosperous people apparently demand democracy!) Bernstein demonstrates with statistics that democracy is not a precondition for economic success, and its correlation with prosperity is because the latter causes the former. (So observing free elections isn't all that useful if what you want to do is to eliminate poverty) What this means is that any attempt for us to reform the Middle-East is doomed to failure. None of the four properties Bernstein proposes should exist before prosperity exist in the Arab countries, and there's no sign that we're successful at imposing them on Iraq. Lawrence Wright also noted that the country of Norway created more exports than all of the Arabic countries combined, so at least with this regards, Bernstein is right.
I think it would be interesting to see what happens if we actually tried to apply this model for helping the "bottom billion." It definitely runs against what everyone else I've read recently says (except William Easterly), and is great food for thought.
Finally, Bernstein explores happiness and economic development. It seems quite clear that economic development by itself does not make people happy. All the studies show that people compare themselves relative to others for happiness, so countries like the Scandanavian countries with a low Gini Coefficient are happier than possibly wealthier countries like the United States. (A visit to the relevant countries will demonstrate this to be true)
When Bernstein visited Google, I asked him this question (not addressed in the book): "There is an argument to be made that our prosperity for the last 200 years has been due to the abundant supply of fossil fuels, which when they run out will make an end to our prosperity. What do you think?" His response was that he believed that this prosperity is largely dependent on human ingenuity, and that while fossil fuels might have helped a lot, he thinks that once on this treadmill, we'll managed to make ourselves wealthier even without fossil fuels, albeit at a slower rate.
In any case, this book is thought provoking, intelligently written, and well worth your time, especially if your first reaction when you see an article about third world poverty is to reach for your checkbook. The possibility not frequently considered is that your financial assistance may not help, but would make the very people you are trying to help even more miserable. You might not agree with Bernstein's assessment, but at the very least you should consider his very cogent arguments. As one of my colleagues said, "It is extremely pleasant when somebody whose books are so intelligent comes across as even smarter in person." I agree.
Note: Bernstein's talk that he gave at Google is now up on youtube.
Bernstein's thesis is that there are four requirements for a modern, industrial economy:
- Property Rights (including intellectual property rights such as patents and copyrights)
- A Rational Worldview (access to the scientific method)
- A large and efficient capital market
- Communications and transportation infrastructure
I think anyone would find it difficult to argue with the first 2 requirements of prosperity. The experiments with Communism have found that without property rights, human nature just does not have the intrinsic motivation to work to produce what others want. An examination of modern contributions to well being also demonstrates that without the scientific world view, it is difficult to come up with new theories or technologies that truly improve the human condition (when was the last invention to come out of a fundamentalist mindset?).
The last 2, however, seem to me to be natural consequence of the first two. Once you've set up a good incentive system, human ingenuity will come up with good capital markets and transportation system. I am not a historian, so I won't say much about part 2 of the book, but I found it to be good reading and an illustrations of the principles involved.
The last part of the book will be more controversial, and is part of the argument between William Easterly and Jeff Sachs about development and aid. If Bernstein's thesis is right, then not only is aid in the form of food and medical improvements not helpful for developing countries, but they are harmful. A nation caught in the Malthusian trap with an increasing population just increases the number of miserable people without improving prospects for growth. This is something very important to understand: without economic development, all you get when you improve mortality rates and health is a lot more miserable people. Instead, what Bernstein prescribes is first establishing the rule of law so that incentives for people are directed towards improving productivity rather than attempting to undermine the system or corrupting it by becoming rent-seekers (gate keepers, or government bureaucrats living off bribes). Only after the rule of law has been established, with independent judiciaries can more education (providing the modern mindset), more AID (money to prime the capital markets), or more infrastructure help.
This is an extraordinary claim, and of course would be difficult to prove, but Bernstein provides two examples, both dictatorships that imposed a rule of law first, and the resulting economic prosperity eventually led to the overthrowing of the dictators themselves. (Hint to future dictators: keep your people miserable --- happy and prosperous people apparently demand democracy!) Bernstein demonstrates with statistics that democracy is not a precondition for economic success, and its correlation with prosperity is because the latter causes the former. (So observing free elections isn't all that useful if what you want to do is to eliminate poverty) What this means is that any attempt for us to reform the Middle-East is doomed to failure. None of the four properties Bernstein proposes should exist before prosperity exist in the Arab countries, and there's no sign that we're successful at imposing them on Iraq. Lawrence Wright also noted that the country of Norway created more exports than all of the Arabic countries combined, so at least with this regards, Bernstein is right.
I think it would be interesting to see what happens if we actually tried to apply this model for helping the "bottom billion." It definitely runs against what everyone else I've read recently says (except William Easterly), and is great food for thought.
Finally, Bernstein explores happiness and economic development. It seems quite clear that economic development by itself does not make people happy. All the studies show that people compare themselves relative to others for happiness, so countries like the Scandanavian countries with a low Gini Coefficient are happier than possibly wealthier countries like the United States. (A visit to the relevant countries will demonstrate this to be true)
When Bernstein visited Google, I asked him this question (not addressed in the book): "There is an argument to be made that our prosperity for the last 200 years has been due to the abundant supply of fossil fuels, which when they run out will make an end to our prosperity. What do you think?" His response was that he believed that this prosperity is largely dependent on human ingenuity, and that while fossil fuels might have helped a lot, he thinks that once on this treadmill, we'll managed to make ourselves wealthier even without fossil fuels, albeit at a slower rate.
In any case, this book is thought provoking, intelligently written, and well worth your time, especially if your first reaction when you see an article about third world poverty is to reach for your checkbook. The possibility not frequently considered is that your financial assistance may not help, but would make the very people you are trying to help even more miserable. You might not agree with Bernstein's assessment, but at the very least you should consider his very cogent arguments. As one of my colleagues said, "It is extremely pleasant when somebody whose books are so intelligent comes across as even smarter in person." I agree.
Note: Bernstein's talk that he gave at Google is now up on youtube.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Fall Riding
Today, I had a hankering for a decently long ride. I went up Page Mill Road in the morning from Moody Road, and the weather was very nice. Near the top, I ran into someone riding up the hill with no shirt, flat pedals on an old Trek 1000 bike. He was incredibly strong, proving once again that equipment is no match for great legs and lungs. At the intersection with Page Mill road, I eschewed mixing with Wes's group, however, and headed up to the true summit on West Alpine road, where I pulled off and enjoyed a cliff bar with a view of the Ocean.
Descending Alpine road, I soon overtook the tail end of the group and road along the cold Redwood forest. It was gorgeous. Sunlight came through little spots in the trees and gave the road surface a dappled look. Leaves came down from the redwoods above me, and the air smelled like fall. Turning left onto Pescadero road, the wind picked up a bit and threw down more leaves, swirling around me and enveloping me in nature's glory. Wes passed me once again, and upon reaching the summit of Haskin's hill, turned right around and went back to pick up his group's stragglers. I rode on rather than mix in, since I enjoy descending by myself with no pressure behind me and no one in front to chase.
The solitude was broken several miles later as the lead group passed me and I hopped onto their wheels, as we pace-lined together towards the coast. The group turned off at North road while I kept going towards Pescadero and headed for Norm's market. There I bought a loaf of freshly baked (still warm) artichoke garlic bread, and went over to the benches at the back of the store just as Wes's group as they arrived from their detour. Not being able to eat the entire loaf by myself, I broke the bread and shared it with them, enjoying the unusually clear and lovely day on the coast.
After eating, relieving myself, and refilling my bottles, I left Wes's group behind and went on ahead. Soon enough, a cyclist on a GT bike passed me and I again hopped on his wheel. He was exceedingly strong but as we slowed down to chat I found out why --- he raced mountain bikes for GT, Oakley, and a few other sponsors. As stage road sloped up I was left behind on the climb but with such a nice day and the road being out of the wind once the climbing began, I did not mind at all riding by myself.
After the intersection with 84, I rode up next to a young lady on a Scott Contessa. We struck up a conversation: Stephanie was a mechanical engineer who worked on power-trains. We discussed training, traveling, and various events, and bone density --- she lifted weight so frequently that her bone density was off the charts --- clearly, I need to lift more too, though I am never motivated enough in the gym. She was recovering from a skiing injury, hence the riding.
Time passes fast when you have conversation on a ride, and soon enough we were at the top of Tunitas Creek. The descent down Kings was disconcerting, as I hit no less than 3 gravel patches on the way down. Both of us made it to Woodside with no problems, however, and from there we made it over to Sand Hill Road where Stephanie had parked. I said farewell to my recent companion and headed home the direct route, for a 76 mile ride in 6 hours.
Descending Alpine road, I soon overtook the tail end of the group and road along the cold Redwood forest. It was gorgeous. Sunlight came through little spots in the trees and gave the road surface a dappled look. Leaves came down from the redwoods above me, and the air smelled like fall. Turning left onto Pescadero road, the wind picked up a bit and threw down more leaves, swirling around me and enveloping me in nature's glory. Wes passed me once again, and upon reaching the summit of Haskin's hill, turned right around and went back to pick up his group's stragglers. I rode on rather than mix in, since I enjoy descending by myself with no pressure behind me and no one in front to chase.
The solitude was broken several miles later as the lead group passed me and I hopped onto their wheels, as we pace-lined together towards the coast. The group turned off at North road while I kept going towards Pescadero and headed for Norm's market. There I bought a loaf of freshly baked (still warm) artichoke garlic bread, and went over to the benches at the back of the store just as Wes's group as they arrived from their detour. Not being able to eat the entire loaf by myself, I broke the bread and shared it with them, enjoying the unusually clear and lovely day on the coast.
After eating, relieving myself, and refilling my bottles, I left Wes's group behind and went on ahead. Soon enough, a cyclist on a GT bike passed me and I again hopped on his wheel. He was exceedingly strong but as we slowed down to chat I found out why --- he raced mountain bikes for GT, Oakley, and a few other sponsors. As stage road sloped up I was left behind on the climb but with such a nice day and the road being out of the wind once the climbing began, I did not mind at all riding by myself.
After the intersection with 84, I rode up next to a young lady on a Scott Contessa. We struck up a conversation: Stephanie was a mechanical engineer who worked on power-trains. We discussed training, traveling, and various events, and bone density --- she lifted weight so frequently that her bone density was off the charts --- clearly, I need to lift more too, though I am never motivated enough in the gym. She was recovering from a skiing injury, hence the riding.
Time passes fast when you have conversation on a ride, and soon enough we were at the top of Tunitas Creek. The descent down Kings was disconcerting, as I hit no less than 3 gravel patches on the way down. Both of us made it to Woodside with no problems, however, and from there we made it over to Sand Hill Road where Stephanie had parked. I said farewell to my recent companion and headed home the direct route, for a 76 mile ride in 6 hours.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Review: The Looming Tower (Al-Qaeda and The Road to 9/11)
This book won the Pulitzer prize award last year, and covers the origins and creation of Al-Qaeda, the fumbling of the ball by America's intelligence and law enforcement agencies, and the people involved in it.
The first part of the book chronicles the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Saudi Arabia and the life of Osama Bin Laden. This part of the book is extremely well researched, getting details like his initial forays into Afghanistan, his marriages, as well as certain other important characters in Al-Qaeda, such as Ayman Zawahiri, the Egyptian who joined forces with Bin Laden later.
It is amazing how good Bin Laden was at taking credit for things he didn't do, and creating a myth around himself. Lawrence Wright, when he visited Google, said that the Muslim countries have in general created a place that is difficult for young men to live without boredom: there is no music, no dating, no movies, hence the attraction of matyrdom and becoming a freedom fighter.
The second half of the book covers the CIA and the FBI's investigation of major cases, including the bombing of the USS Cole, the initial failed bombing of the World Trade Center, as well as the failed attempt at the Los Angeles airport. With the benefit of hindsight, you can't help but wince at every missed opportunity, that perhaps with a more competent administration, would have foiled the ultimate tragedy that followed.
There are several colorful characters here as well, including John O'Neill, the FBI operative who was obssessed with hunting Al-Qaeda, only to be foiled by diplomats, the CIA, and his own appetites (he had 3 girlfriends in different cities and a wife, and was juggling all of them, and lived life well beyond his means). Though it made for a great story, I wish Wright could have spent more time on other parts of this narrative.
All in all, a very deserving Pulitzer prize, and required reading for anyone who's life was touched by the tragedies 6 years ago. Ultimately, however, I suspect that the war against terrorism is a cultural war, not one that can be won by counter-terrorism, law enforcement, or military action. Whether we can win over entire cultures into enlightenment and liberalism (or in fact, even our own culture) will ultimately decide how history plays out in the Middle East.
The first part of the book chronicles the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in Saudi Arabia and the life of Osama Bin Laden. This part of the book is extremely well researched, getting details like his initial forays into Afghanistan, his marriages, as well as certain other important characters in Al-Qaeda, such as Ayman Zawahiri, the Egyptian who joined forces with Bin Laden later.
It is amazing how good Bin Laden was at taking credit for things he didn't do, and creating a myth around himself. Lawrence Wright, when he visited Google, said that the Muslim countries have in general created a place that is difficult for young men to live without boredom: there is no music, no dating, no movies, hence the attraction of matyrdom and becoming a freedom fighter.
The second half of the book covers the CIA and the FBI's investigation of major cases, including the bombing of the USS Cole, the initial failed bombing of the World Trade Center, as well as the failed attempt at the Los Angeles airport. With the benefit of hindsight, you can't help but wince at every missed opportunity, that perhaps with a more competent administration, would have foiled the ultimate tragedy that followed.
There are several colorful characters here as well, including John O'Neill, the FBI operative who was obssessed with hunting Al-Qaeda, only to be foiled by diplomats, the CIA, and his own appetites (he had 3 girlfriends in different cities and a wife, and was juggling all of them, and lived life well beyond his means). Though it made for a great story, I wish Wright could have spent more time on other parts of this narrative.
All in all, a very deserving Pulitzer prize, and required reading for anyone who's life was touched by the tragedies 6 years ago. Ultimately, however, I suspect that the war against terrorism is a cultural war, not one that can be won by counter-terrorism, law enforcement, or military action. Whether we can win over entire cultures into enlightenment and liberalism (or in fact, even our own culture) will ultimately decide how history plays out in the Middle East.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Practical Bikes
10 years ago, when Rivendell Bicycles was new, they stood for practical bikes. Bikes that could take wide tires, fenders, racks, but wouldn't actually be any slower, and wouldn't cost an arm and a leg because they were factory production frames.
Fast forward 10 years, and now we have a whole new generation of bike frames. Velo-Orange, for instance, makes a French Randonneur bike for $1650. Jitensha Studio makes an Ebisu bicycle for $1400.
By contrast, Bill Davidson's custom frame costs $1200. Put on a $300 custom fork and it's at $1500, the same price as a production Rivendell Rambouillet frame and fork! Carl Strong's pricing isn't that much higher.
I don't understand the logic of people paying more for a production bike than a custom frame. It makes no sense. If you want lugs, Bill's prices are $100 more, but for most people the advantage of going custom would be too large to ignore.
Today, when someone wants an economical bike, I point them at the Soma Smoothie ES. At $500 for a frame and fork with long reach caliper brakes, this is the practical bike that Rivendell no longer produces today.
And yes, I have test ridden the Kogswell P/R. It's not a nice handling frame. 650B wheels feel sluggish to me, and make the bike feel like a lopsided turtle on level ground. I think Jan Heine's taste is contrary to mine, and I am sad that the bicycle fashionistas have moved away from the quick handling, practical light riding bikes that I learned to love so much over the last 10 years or so, and I definitely blame it all on the pernicious influence of Jan Heine. Fortunately, folks like Craig Calfee keep turning out beautiful riding bikes just like the ones I rode 10 years ago, and judging from how popular his bikes are, these bikes are winning in the market over the fashionistas, which is all the satisfaction I need. Now if only someone made a light steel frame with that geometry...
Fast forward 10 years, and now we have a whole new generation of bike frames. Velo-Orange, for instance, makes a French Randonneur bike for $1650. Jitensha Studio makes an Ebisu bicycle for $1400.
By contrast, Bill Davidson's custom frame costs $1200. Put on a $300 custom fork and it's at $1500, the same price as a production Rivendell Rambouillet frame and fork! Carl Strong's pricing isn't that much higher.
I don't understand the logic of people paying more for a production bike than a custom frame. It makes no sense. If you want lugs, Bill's prices are $100 more, but for most people the advantage of going custom would be too large to ignore.
Today, when someone wants an economical bike, I point them at the Soma Smoothie ES. At $500 for a frame and fork with long reach caliper brakes, this is the practical bike that Rivendell no longer produces today.
And yes, I have test ridden the Kogswell P/R. It's not a nice handling frame. 650B wheels feel sluggish to me, and make the bike feel like a lopsided turtle on level ground. I think Jan Heine's taste is contrary to mine, and I am sad that the bicycle fashionistas have moved away from the quick handling, practical light riding bikes that I learned to love so much over the last 10 years or so, and I definitely blame it all on the pernicious influence of Jan Heine. Fortunately, folks like Craig Calfee keep turning out beautiful riding bikes just like the ones I rode 10 years ago, and judging from how popular his bikes are, these bikes are winning in the market over the fashionistas, which is all the satisfaction I need. Now if only someone made a light steel frame with that geometry...
Monday, September 24, 2007
Retirement calculators
I had another e-mail conversation with William Bernstein again about one of my favorite topics, the safe withdrawal rates. I've already seen what a conventional financial adviser provides. I wanted to know what one of the modern Gurus of asset allocation thought. Here's his reply (typos and errors in punctuation are all mine):
As you hinted at, and as Paul Samuelson famously said, we only have 200 years of history to go on, and the experience of the rest of the world, as well as current expected returns suggest, going by those 200 years are overly optimistic.
Forget all the sophisticated methodologies: GIGO, and what goes into these black boxes is most assuredly G.
Here are 2 simple ways of looking at it:
Myself, I plan to live what passes for a "frugal" standard of living in today's society (I'm fortunate to have been raised in the 50s, and to have sense of appreciation of what I have now) and spend only 2%, maybe a tad more as i age, with the knowledge that I'll most likely be leaving my kids, grandkids, and charities a nice chunk of change. which provides its own rewards.
Note that a 100% safe rate is pretty much redundant, since as history shows, you are likely to get caught up in historical events that makes worrying about your financial assets the last thing on your mind. We don't live in a super safe world, if history is any guide, so all the retirement studies have an precision that don't live up to its accuracy. John Greaney is well aware of this, and lives on 1% of his assets. It would be wise to do as he does.
As you hinted at, and as Paul Samuelson famously said, we only have 200 years of history to go on, and the experience of the rest of the world, as well as current expected returns suggest, going by those 200 years are overly optimistic.
Forget all the sophisticated methodologies: GIGO, and what goes into these black boxes is most assuredly G.
Here are 2 simple ways of looking at it:
- Start with 3.5% real for stocks, and 2.5% for bonds. that's about 3% for a mixed portfolio. if you're going to retire at 50, your time horizon is for all practical purposes "forever," so you can only withdraw your real return, or about 3%. but it's worse than that, since you have to adjust for uncertainty and a bad initial draw. so figure 2%.
- Even simpler: since in the long term, to stay hedonically adjusted you don't just have to keep up merely with inflation, but with the living standard of your nonretired peers, which increases at the productivity growth rate, or 2%. add in a soupcon of uncertainty and your hedonically adjusted rate of return is zero. so . . .you have to save one year's living expenses for every year you plan to live, or 50 years, "worst case," or . . .2%
Myself, I plan to live what passes for a "frugal" standard of living in today's society (I'm fortunate to have been raised in the 50s, and to have sense of appreciation of what I have now) and spend only 2%, maybe a tad more as i age, with the knowledge that I'll most likely be leaving my kids, grandkids, and charities a nice chunk of change. which provides its own rewards.
Note that a 100% safe rate is pretty much redundant, since as history shows, you are likely to get caught up in historical events that makes worrying about your financial assets the last thing on your mind. We don't live in a super safe world, if history is any guide, so all the retirement studies have an precision that don't live up to its accuracy. John Greaney is well aware of this, and lives on 1% of his assets. It would be wise to do as he does.
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Conversation with William Bernstein
Thanks to Karl, a bunch of us got to meet William Bernstein today, and the conversation was far more interesting than I expected. Here's a quick summary:
- Do you consider Berkshire Hathaway a separate asset class? I consider Berkshire Hathaway a closed end fund. Yes, the P/E of BRK is 10, but if you ask private businesses around the country, they'll tell you that they'll have a hard time selling their business for 5 times book value, let alone the 10 that Berkeshire Hathaway is getting. This means that there's a premium for Warren Buffett to be running the fund, and I do not expect him to be running the fund 40 years from now. But if you were to put together a fund that invested in private companies that can't be bought on the market, I would consider it a separate asset class.
- Why do you suggest using fixed asset weightings for regions, but market cap weighting for stocks, sectors within a region/country? For countries, there have been countries where the market cap has gone to zero. For instance, the rate of return in Peru for the last century has been -99.5%. So for you to rebalance in those cases would be a bad idea. But within regions, the risk is low, and certain countries like the US, Japan, or Britain can be considered regions because their markets are so mature. We then debated between fundamental weights and market cap weights *with* value/small tilts. At the practical level, on the market cap side you have Vanguard, DFA. On the fundamental side you have folks like Rydex and PIMCO. If you were to ask me there's no contest. (Somewhere in there he also mentioned that he was willing to consider REITs and precious metal equity as separate asset classes you rebalanced against)
- Isn't re-balancing just market timing? There was a paper written quite a while back about this precise issue. The authors were very coy about it. They postulate a world in which nearly everyone was a convex investor (i.e., when something went up they bought more of it, and when something went down they sold it or bought less of it). In that world, you'd make more money if you were a concave investor (i.e., buy more when it's down and sell when it's up). It turns out the model works both ways --- if most of the world is concave, you'd actually make money by being a momentum investor. But of course, the majority of the world is made up of convex investors, which is why rebalancing works. In fact, if you were to buy more of stocks when dividend yields were high, and less of them when dividend yields were low, you'd do very well. Just because you believe in the efficient market does not absolve you of the responsibility to do the math and look at what makes sense.
- How do you get the data to do this computation? You can subscribe to Morningstar. Or use the Wall Street Journal. Or if you're a DFA advisor you get the data as part of the package.
- Interest rates dropped 50 basis points. How does that affect you? It shouldn't affect you at all. It's a no-op.
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Review: Mint.com
I was one of Mint.com's private beta users, so I'll give it a quick review now that the press embargo is over.
The traditional approach to personal finance is epitomized by Quicken or Microsoft Money: basically, a double-entry book-keeping spreadsheet made to look like a checkbook register to help you reconcile, categorize, and balance your accounts.
The main reason why most people don't use financial software (despite all the bundling deals that Intuit and Microsoft do) is because it's difficult, tedious, and real work. If you enter the data manually, it takes a while, and if you don't enter it manually, it won't categorize your expenses properly, and you don't actually get accurate reporting. There are all these problems where buying and selling stock don't actually track properly, and the whole thing is a morass. I say this as a long time user of Quicken (I've been using Quicken for 15 years --- I bounced a check once and I never did so again because of Quicken).
Mint.com takes the fresh graduate's intuitive approach to money: I can't be bothered to track every cent --- as long as my bank account goes up, I'm doing something right, and if it can categorize 90% of my expenditures correctly, that's more than good enough.
The premise of the site is that you'll register for on-line access to all your credit cards and banks. You will then provide your user name and password to them. That should sound really dangerous to you, but Mint's security advisory is reassuring. They then get all your up to date statements and poll your financial institutions and download your transactions continuously. New transactions are categorized by an AI-like algorithm (which can be easily improved once they get enough widespread adoption that they can apply statistical analysis), and you set thresholds for alerts to be sent to you (for instance, e-mail can be sent if expenditure exceeds a certain amount, or if large transactions occur, etc).
There are a number of weaknesses. First, they don't do brokerages. So your transfers to your brokerage will show up as "Business Purchase." Oops. In my case that thoroughly skews my reports. Secondly, without double-entry book-keeping, you will not detect bank errors! There's no forced monthly reconciliation, and no way for you to notice, "Hey wait a minute, I didn't shop there", unless you scrutinize each item yourself. For me, this is why I use Quicken. I've caught bank errors, identity theft, bad merchants, and many other problems because the forced reconciliation feature forces me to really look at each statement. By relying on the "as long as my bank account goes up" method, you won't catch any of these.
There are a number of strengths I don't find in Quicken, though! First of all, your Mint.com account is always up to date, including your latest expenditure. Their approach to budgeting is awesome: they basically average your spending in all the categories, and alert you when your spending is out of whack. Very automated, very slick, and very intelligent. If only Quicken was this smart. Finally, when they see suboptimal use of financial institutions, they'll tell you what a better move is (say, by recommending a better credit card, or a bank that pays higher interest rates), and they will quantify how much money you'll expect to save or get by making the move. Are their recommendations good? Well, for credit cards, they recommended the same one that PFBlog recommends as the credit card of the year. He does these analysis a lot more than I do, and I trust his recommendations, and if Mint.com comes up with the same thing, that says a lot.
Am I likely to keep using Mint? Probably not. I definitely am addicted to the reconciliation feature --- the fresh grad. approach to personal finance isn't anything close to what I want. The reporting fails for me as well, since if most of my money goes into investing, giving me 70% expenditure on "Business Purchasing" is of no use. But the budgeting and alerts system and the recommendation system is so good that I fervently wish that Intuit will adopt this for Quicken (the auto-categorization is already there in the latest version of Quicken, though it doesn't save me as much time as I would expect).
All in all, if you're a fresh graduate or you are currently not using Quicken or Microsoft Money, Mint.com is way better than nothing. For tightwads like me or the financially sophisticated who have a lot of investments, I'm afraid that Mint.com will not save you too much work.
Recommended if you fall into one of the above-mentioned categories.
[Recently, mint.com introduced the new investment tracking feature. I've reviewed that feature here.
The traditional approach to personal finance is epitomized by Quicken or Microsoft Money: basically, a double-entry book-keeping spreadsheet made to look like a checkbook register to help you reconcile, categorize, and balance your accounts.
The main reason why most people don't use financial software (despite all the bundling deals that Intuit and Microsoft do) is because it's difficult, tedious, and real work. If you enter the data manually, it takes a while, and if you don't enter it manually, it won't categorize your expenses properly, and you don't actually get accurate reporting. There are all these problems where buying and selling stock don't actually track properly, and the whole thing is a morass. I say this as a long time user of Quicken (I've been using Quicken for 15 years --- I bounced a check once and I never did so again because of Quicken).
Mint.com takes the fresh graduate's intuitive approach to money: I can't be bothered to track every cent --- as long as my bank account goes up, I'm doing something right, and if it can categorize 90% of my expenditures correctly, that's more than good enough.
The premise of the site is that you'll register for on-line access to all your credit cards and banks. You will then provide your user name and password to them. That should sound really dangerous to you, but Mint's security advisory is reassuring. They then get all your up to date statements and poll your financial institutions and download your transactions continuously. New transactions are categorized by an AI-like algorithm (which can be easily improved once they get enough widespread adoption that they can apply statistical analysis), and you set thresholds for alerts to be sent to you (for instance, e-mail can be sent if expenditure exceeds a certain amount, or if large transactions occur, etc).
There are a number of weaknesses. First, they don't do brokerages. So your transfers to your brokerage will show up as "Business Purchase." Oops. In my case that thoroughly skews my reports. Secondly, without double-entry book-keeping, you will not detect bank errors! There's no forced monthly reconciliation, and no way for you to notice, "Hey wait a minute, I didn't shop there", unless you scrutinize each item yourself. For me, this is why I use Quicken. I've caught bank errors, identity theft, bad merchants, and many other problems because the forced reconciliation feature forces me to really look at each statement. By relying on the "as long as my bank account goes up" method, you won't catch any of these.
There are a number of strengths I don't find in Quicken, though! First of all, your Mint.com account is always up to date, including your latest expenditure. Their approach to budgeting is awesome: they basically average your spending in all the categories, and alert you when your spending is out of whack. Very automated, very slick, and very intelligent. If only Quicken was this smart. Finally, when they see suboptimal use of financial institutions, they'll tell you what a better move is (say, by recommending a better credit card, or a bank that pays higher interest rates), and they will quantify how much money you'll expect to save or get by making the move. Are their recommendations good? Well, for credit cards, they recommended the same one that PFBlog recommends as the credit card of the year. He does these analysis a lot more than I do, and I trust his recommendations, and if Mint.com comes up with the same thing, that says a lot.
Am I likely to keep using Mint? Probably not. I definitely am addicted to the reconciliation feature --- the fresh grad. approach to personal finance isn't anything close to what I want. The reporting fails for me as well, since if most of my money goes into investing, giving me 70% expenditure on "Business Purchasing" is of no use. But the budgeting and alerts system and the recommendation system is so good that I fervently wish that Intuit will adopt this for Quicken (the auto-categorization is already there in the latest version of Quicken, though it doesn't save me as much time as I would expect).
All in all, if you're a fresh graduate or you are currently not using Quicken or Microsoft Money, Mint.com is way better than nothing. For tightwads like me or the financially sophisticated who have a lot of investments, I'm afraid that Mint.com will not save you too much work.
Recommended if you fall into one of the above-mentioned categories.
[Recently, mint.com introduced the new investment tracking feature. I've reviewed that feature here.
Review: The Blind Side
I will confess to not being a big fan of American Football; I am fond of quoting George Will: Football combines the two worst things about America: it is violence punctuated by committee meetings. I am, however, a fan of Michael Lewis. His first book, Liar's Poker was funny, well-written, and had great insight to the Wall Street scene. His next book, Moneyball, made baseball, a game I often compare with watching paint dry, actually made the statistics interesting, and gave me an understanding of why my friends who were baseball geeks were obsessed with the game, even though I still found myself unable to watch it. His more book, The New New Thing, I didn't find nearly as interesting, mostly because I work in technology, and his worship of Jim Clark seemed premature. (I did manage to sneak onto Jim Clark's sailboat, The Hyperion when I was in New Zealand in 2000. That's a story for another time)
The Blind Side is two stories at once. First, there's the hero's journey, complete with danger, wise mentors, a rescue, and obstacles to overcome. The hero's journey is about Michael Oher, an inner-city kid who somehow makes it into Briarcrest High School, a religious private school and there he flounders, being viewed by all his teachers as a hopeless cause, until a white family literally finds him on the street, adopts him, and pushes the school to recognize his talent as a left tackle in football, a sport he is born to play.
The other story is the story about football strategy. Everybody knows who the quarterback is on the team, but the other players were not highly paid until relatively recently, where a shift in football rules and strategy encouraged a playing style that reduced the time a quarterback had to think, and made the position defending his blind side a highly lucrative one. The statistics and data Lewis marshals to defend this point of view is highly convincing, and one believes him when he says that the lack of a Sabermetrics equivalent in Football really made it evolve a lot more slowly than it would otherwise have.
The book reads fast and easily, and the story is fascinating. I do question the premise (held by many, it seems), that the way out of the ghetto for black people is sports and for their talent to be recognized. In the book, for instance, Michael Oher's GPA was the gating factor for his financial future --- the NFL is barred for players who do not attend college. If the premise of this book is to be believed, the best thing one could do for inner-city kids is to remove this impediment and allow anyone to play. Michael Oher's adopted father, Sean, spent quite a bit of time manipulating the system to get Michael's GPA acceptable in school --- he gets Michael declared to have a learning disability, and then uses BYU's distance learning program to toss out a bunch of Fs in Michael's report card.
The truth is, however, that even were all the barriers to inner-city talent in sports removed, the number of folks the market can handle with such high salaries is limited --- there are only so many sports stars that can be created. The true path out of the ghetto is more education, where economic productivity can be increased indefinitely, but I guess that is beyond the scope of this book.
Even though I still have no idea what the line up of an American Football team looks like after reading this book, I found it incredibly fascinating and could not help but keep turning page after page. Highly recommended. Michael Lewis is back on form.
[Addendum: Michael Lewis gave a talk at Google about this book. You can now view it on Youtube: Michael Lewis at Google]
The Blind Side is two stories at once. First, there's the hero's journey, complete with danger, wise mentors, a rescue, and obstacles to overcome. The hero's journey is about Michael Oher, an inner-city kid who somehow makes it into Briarcrest High School, a religious private school and there he flounders, being viewed by all his teachers as a hopeless cause, until a white family literally finds him on the street, adopts him, and pushes the school to recognize his talent as a left tackle in football, a sport he is born to play.
The other story is the story about football strategy. Everybody knows who the quarterback is on the team, but the other players were not highly paid until relatively recently, where a shift in football rules and strategy encouraged a playing style that reduced the time a quarterback had to think, and made the position defending his blind side a highly lucrative one. The statistics and data Lewis marshals to defend this point of view is highly convincing, and one believes him when he says that the lack of a Sabermetrics equivalent in Football really made it evolve a lot more slowly than it would otherwise have.
The book reads fast and easily, and the story is fascinating. I do question the premise (held by many, it seems), that the way out of the ghetto for black people is sports and for their talent to be recognized. In the book, for instance, Michael Oher's GPA was the gating factor for his financial future --- the NFL is barred for players who do not attend college. If the premise of this book is to be believed, the best thing one could do for inner-city kids is to remove this impediment and allow anyone to play. Michael Oher's adopted father, Sean, spent quite a bit of time manipulating the system to get Michael's GPA acceptable in school --- he gets Michael declared to have a learning disability, and then uses BYU's distance learning program to toss out a bunch of Fs in Michael's report card.
The truth is, however, that even were all the barriers to inner-city talent in sports removed, the number of folks the market can handle with such high salaries is limited --- there are only so many sports stars that can be created. The true path out of the ghetto is more education, where economic productivity can be increased indefinitely, but I guess that is beyond the scope of this book.
Even though I still have no idea what the line up of an American Football team looks like after reading this book, I found it incredibly fascinating and could not help but keep turning page after page. Highly recommended. Michael Lewis is back on form.
[Addendum: Michael Lewis gave a talk at Google about this book. You can now view it on Youtube: Michael Lewis at Google]
Joel figures out how to beat Google
I try not to comment much about technology trends, especially since I am so often wrong. But when I read Joel's article, I couldn't help thinking to myself, "Did he not know about Google Web Toolkit?"
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Review: The Dynamic Path
Disclosure: The copy of The Dynamic Path I read was a review copy provided by the author's publicist.
The Dynamic Path is properly categorized as a self-help book, much in the vein of Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Jim Citrin is an executive search consultant (in other words, a CEO-only head-hunter). I don't know what his background is, but he definitely seems to worship sports and sports heroes to the degree typified in American culture.
The book attempts to provide a guiding road-map to life, from individual achiever to leadership to building an enduring legacy. The examples he provides are almost all drawn from athletes who've built a major legacy, from Joan Benoit, Billie Jean King (the person who instigated Title IX), Lance Armstrong, Tony Hawk, and Tiger Woods.
I'm not sure this book brings anything to the table that other self-help books haven't already: commitment, belief in yourself, focus, practice, and hard work. It is doubtful that if you don't already have those, reading this book will help you gain any. In fact, in one of his sections, he describes mental toughness as having the discipline to keep hitting shots and controlling the ball while allowing your opponent to screw up. His example here was Bjorn Borg. But later, you find out that Bjorn Borg retired right after being defeated by John McEnroe. This isn't uncommon in sports (Miguel Indurain retired right after his defeat by a doped up Bjarne Riis), but it does bring home that perhaps sports heroes aren't the best examples to use for inspirational leadership, even if there are a few exemplars that prove the exception.
As for leadership, I'm not sure leadership can be learned. I've attended lots of leadership seminars, but none of them really tell you how the best leaders do what they do effectively, and neither does this book (seriously: platitudes like "work hard", "focus on the success of others", and "deliver on your commitments" aren't all that useful --- in the complex universe we live in, making the right decision trumps all the others). So what we are left with are the interviews.
While the interviews are the parts of the book most worth reading, it is not clear to me that the interviews are terribly enlightening. The questions are too soft-balled, the replies too generic --- I feel like I've read these interviews all too often in sports magazines (not that I've read many).
All in all, this book could have been a lot shorter and still made its point. A casual airplane read, but seriously, if you want to read material like this, Seven Habits of Highly Effective People is still the standard and you should read that first.
The Dynamic Path is properly categorized as a self-help book, much in the vein of Seven Habits of Highly Effective People. Jim Citrin is an executive search consultant (in other words, a CEO-only head-hunter). I don't know what his background is, but he definitely seems to worship sports and sports heroes to the degree typified in American culture.
The book attempts to provide a guiding road-map to life, from individual achiever to leadership to building an enduring legacy. The examples he provides are almost all drawn from athletes who've built a major legacy, from Joan Benoit, Billie Jean King (the person who instigated Title IX), Lance Armstrong, Tony Hawk, and Tiger Woods.
I'm not sure this book brings anything to the table that other self-help books haven't already: commitment, belief in yourself, focus, practice, and hard work. It is doubtful that if you don't already have those, reading this book will help you gain any. In fact, in one of his sections, he describes mental toughness as having the discipline to keep hitting shots and controlling the ball while allowing your opponent to screw up. His example here was Bjorn Borg. But later, you find out that Bjorn Borg retired right after being defeated by John McEnroe. This isn't uncommon in sports (Miguel Indurain retired right after his defeat by a doped up Bjarne Riis), but it does bring home that perhaps sports heroes aren't the best examples to use for inspirational leadership, even if there are a few exemplars that prove the exception.
As for leadership, I'm not sure leadership can be learned. I've attended lots of leadership seminars, but none of them really tell you how the best leaders do what they do effectively, and neither does this book (seriously: platitudes like "work hard", "focus on the success of others", and "deliver on your commitments" aren't all that useful --- in the complex universe we live in, making the right decision trumps all the others). So what we are left with are the interviews.
While the interviews are the parts of the book most worth reading, it is not clear to me that the interviews are terribly enlightening. The questions are too soft-balled, the replies too generic --- I feel like I've read these interviews all too often in sports magazines (not that I've read many).
All in all, this book could have been a lot shorter and still made its point. A casual airplane read, but seriously, if you want to read material like this, Seven Habits of Highly Effective People is still the standard and you should read that first.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Too little, too late (Republicans are Evil, Part VII)
(The above link is only good for the next 7 days)
Alan Greenspan's memoir apparently criticizes Bush and his administration:
Mr. Greenspan, who calls himself a "lifelong libertarian Republican," writes that he advised the White House to veto some bills to curb "out-of-control" spending while the Republicans controlled Congress. He says President Bush's failure to do so "was a major mistake." Republicans in Congress, he writes, "swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose."
But Mr. Greenspan, where were you when you had the power to nip the policy in the bud? I remember when you testified in front of congress saying that Tax Cuts were the preferred way to deal with the coming budget surplus. At that time you had so much respect from Congress that if you had pointed out that the surplus was a result of saving for the baby boomer's retirement the fiscal wreck that was the result of the Bush tax cuts might not have happened. Of course, it would be too much to expect the Wall Street journal to point this out. And I am willing to bet the New York Times won't hold Greenspan's history of abetting the raid of the treasury by the wealthy class up to light, either.
As it is, your comments are too little, too late. I definitely don't trust libertarian Republicans: they have never stood up for the rights of the individual against government intrusion, nor do they stand for fiscal responsibility. By consistently voting for people who shift the burden of taxes away from today's wealthy Americans into future generations, they have given up all their principles in favor of class warfare. And as Warren Buffett says, “There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”
Alan Greenspan's memoir apparently criticizes Bush and his administration:
Mr. Greenspan, who calls himself a "lifelong libertarian Republican," writes that he advised the White House to veto some bills to curb "out-of-control" spending while the Republicans controlled Congress. He says President Bush's failure to do so "was a major mistake." Republicans in Congress, he writes, "swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose."
But Mr. Greenspan, where were you when you had the power to nip the policy in the bud? I remember when you testified in front of congress saying that Tax Cuts were the preferred way to deal with the coming budget surplus. At that time you had so much respect from Congress that if you had pointed out that the surplus was a result of saving for the baby boomer's retirement the fiscal wreck that was the result of the Bush tax cuts might not have happened. Of course, it would be too much to expect the Wall Street journal to point this out. And I am willing to bet the New York Times won't hold Greenspan's history of abetting the raid of the treasury by the wealthy class up to light, either.
As it is, your comments are too little, too late. I definitely don't trust libertarian Republicans: they have never stood up for the rights of the individual against government intrusion, nor do they stand for fiscal responsibility. By consistently voting for people who shift the burden of taxes away from today's wealthy Americans into future generations, they have given up all their principles in favor of class warfare. And as Warren Buffett says, “There’s class warfare, all right,” Mr. Buffett said, “but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.”
Sunday, September 09, 2007
Building a Custom Bike Part II
Changes from last time:
- 3rd water bottle cage (mounted on the wheel side of the down tube). I asked Carl to draw in a 28mm tire just to make sure it would clear with room for renders. (Looks like it does!)
- 43mm offset on the fork. The Bridgestone RB-1 had a 45mm offset. I've test ridden a fork with a 40mm offset on the same geometry, and to be honest I cannot tell the difference. I simply might not be sensitive enough to feel 3mm difference. The 43mm works fine on the Fuji (though the Fuji has never seen a load), but it handles just fine. I sent my Bruce Gordon low rider rack to Black Sheep for mounting and sizing, so that the low rider mounts will work exactly on the fork as specified. The built fork will be sent to Carl directly for final verification and building.
- Not seen in the diagram: spoke holders for spare spokes! A nice feature on touring bikes but never seen on stock frames. This is another reason we buy custom.
Things to explore in the future: finish of the bike (Satin? Polished? Shot-peened?), possible head tube extension so I use fewer spacers? Pardo suggests that I go for a 72 degree seat tube so I can use a no-layback seat post, but the road feel is important to me, and I'm not sure I want a seat tube that slack, having ridden one like that on the Heron Touring bike, which feels unnecessarily sluggish to me when I put power to the pedals.
So far, Carl's been a pleasure to work with. There's a 5 week wait to delivery, but everything looks good. One note is that Carl is raising his prices for custom frames, so if you want one built by him, take note!
Follow up: More Dinotte Nastiness
In April, I wrote a review of the Dinotte Tail-light, pointing out the weaknesses of the product, mostly the mounting options, which works if you're a night racer or luggage-less rider, but not if you're a user of Carradice-type saddlebags, the best solution for randoneuring or light touring today.
That article must have touched a nerve, since I received e-mail today from Dinotte asking me if I would retract my negative article if they sent me one of their new seat post mounts. Ethical issues aside, a look at the new mount would show you that it negates none of the weaknesses I had pointed to in the earlier article.
As a follow-up, I ditched my Dinotte light recently and went back to my ancient Vista-lite, a 10 year-old design that while not providing as much light, provide enough for others to see me, can be mounted on my seat stays, and is extremely pleasant to use. I will very likely sell my Dinotte light to someone who doesn't use saddelbags, or to a night racer.
I hope Cat-eye will start using higher powered LEDs in their lights. Their line of lights already feature superior mechanical linkage to the Dinottes, and it would not displease me to see a line of products clearly designed with thought for the utility cyclist beat out a line of products designed for night racers.
That article must have touched a nerve, since I received e-mail today from Dinotte asking me if I would retract my negative article if they sent me one of their new seat post mounts. Ethical issues aside, a look at the new mount would show you that it negates none of the weaknesses I had pointed to in the earlier article.
As a follow-up, I ditched my Dinotte light recently and went back to my ancient Vista-lite, a 10 year-old design that while not providing as much light, provide enough for others to see me, can be mounted on my seat stays, and is extremely pleasant to use. I will very likely sell my Dinotte light to someone who doesn't use saddelbags, or to a night racer.
I hope Cat-eye will start using higher powered LEDs in their lights. Their line of lights already feature superior mechanical linkage to the Dinottes, and it would not displease me to see a line of products clearly designed with thought for the utility cyclist beat out a line of products designed for night racers.
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